NFL Picks Week 15: Setting the Upset Odds for Every Game
NFL Week 15 picks are here and we're taking a special look at the upsets.
Everyone loves the upset and we're looking at the full slate of games and ranking them in terms of how likely the upset is in each matchup. Each matchup is ranked on a scale of 1-10 and I explain why.
Any thoughts or comments? Make sure to leave them below.
San Diego Vs. San Francisco
1 of 16
It's the first game of the week, and it's pretty much going to be a blowout.
San Diego isn't a great team this year, but the Chargers are certainly better than San Francisco, who has struggled all year long. There's too many weapons out there and the 49ers are just not close to what people thought they would be.
Look for the Chargers to win in a blowout.
Upset Probability: 1 of 10 - Very Low
St. Louis Vs. Kansas City
2 of 16
As it stands right now, I don't see the Chiefs winning this Sunday.
We all saw what Kansas City looked like on offense with Matt Cassel out of the lineup. Brodie Croyle was awful, as he's always been, and the Chiefs got dominated from start to finish by the San Diego Chargers last Sunday.
If there's no Cassel, there's no chance for Kansas City.
Upset Probability: 2 of 10 - Very Low
Tampa Bay Vs. Detroit
3 of 16
I like Detroit, I really do, just not against Tampa Bay.
Sure, the Bucs struggled against the Redskins on Sunday and got a gift from Hunter Smith on the extra point, but Tampa Bay finds ways to beat these bad teams. In fact, that's all the Bucs do, so why should I not expect that to happen again?
Look for the Bucs to win this one and move on.
Upset Probability: 2 of 10 - Very Low
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Atlanta Vs. Seattle
4 of 16
You know, sometimes it's hard to figure Seattle out.
There will be weeks when the Seahawks come out of nowhere and play a great game that surprises everyone and then there's games where Seattle just gets pummeled into the dirt. This game is at home and that crowd will be fired up.
However, it won't be enough for Seattle to get the win.
Upset Probability: 3 of 10 - Low
Oakland Vs. Denver
5 of 16
Oakland is another tough team to figure out.
The Raiders go back and forth between great wins and head-scratching losses. Oakland beats San Diego pretty handily and then chokes a game away against Jacksonville that it should have won. At least it's an improvement from years past though.
Denver looked like it gave up last week. I don't see Oakland losing.
Upset Probability: 3 of 10 - Low
Tennessee Vs. Houston
6 of 16
The last time these two teams met, a brawl broke out between Cortland Finnegan and Andre Johnson.
However, the last match up featured the first and last appearance by Rusty Smith as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Kerry Collins will be under center, and while he's not a great option, he's sure better than Rusty Smith.
Houston has a shot, but I like the Titans in this game, especially with Houston on a short week after a tough loss.
Upset Probability: 4 of 10 - Possible
Carolina Vs. Arizona
7 of 16
Well, ladies and gentlemen, I think we've found this year's Toliet Bowl.
These two teams are just horrid, they really are. This isn't what you're going to call a quarterback duel by any stretch of the imagination. Who can't wait to see Jimmy Clausen and Derek Anderson just air it out? I think that Arizona will be able to run the ball and it's going to come down who can gash the other the most with the run game.
The Cardinals have a chance in this game and are probably the better team as Carolina aims for the top pick in the draft.
Upset Probability: 4 of 10 - Possible
Miami Vs. Buffalo
8 of 16
Sure, this seems like Miami should win this game, but will they?
Do you really trust the Dolphins? I sure don't, especially at home, where Miami hasn't played that well this year. Buffalo is a scrappy team that always finds itself in close ball games just to fall a tiny bit short of victory.
I think the Bills can pull this game off. It should be a fun game to watch.
Upset Probability: 5 of 10 - Possible
Cincinnati Vs. Cleveland
9 of 16
Oh Carson Palmer, you are a trainwreck to watch.
He threw two interceptions that went back for touchdowns against the Steelers and he's just not the answer at quarterback for the Bengals. He hasn't been the same since his knee injury and it's just over for him in Cincinnati.
The Browns are a scrappy team and turnovers could doom the Bengals.
Upset Probability: 5 of 10 - Possible
Dallas Vs. Washington
10 of 16
While this might seem a little more straightforward on paper, I don't think it's that easy.
The Cowboys are favored and rightfully so, and it's a great rivalry, but the Redskins have been in a lot of close games this year and I think Washington is going to bounce back from the tough loss against Tampa Bay on Sunday.
I think this will be a close, classic matchup.
Upset Probability: 5 of 10 - Possible
New England Vs. Green Bay
11 of 16
Now this is assuming Aaron Rodgers can go on Sunday against the Patriots.
The Packers are a strong team and this is the third big game in a row for New England. There has to be a letdown at some point for the Patriots and if Rodgers can go, that passing game will test that young secondary.
Look for New England to win, but I think the Packers can pull this one out.
Upset Probability: 7 of 10 - Possible
NY Giants Vs. Philadelphia
12 of 16
The Giants are favored in this game and it's going to be a huge clash for NFC East dominance.
Michael Vick is a little worse for the wear after taking quite the beating against Dallas last Sunday, but he played well last time against the Giants and New York makes a lot of mistakes that makes me wonder if the Giants are cut out for the big time.
Look for the Eagles to take this game.
Upset Probability: 7 of 10- Likely
Indianapolis Vs. Jacksonville
13 of 16
We've seen this before and the Jacksonville Jaguars walked away with the upset.
This time around, the Colts need a big win to stay alive in the playoff hunt and a win gives Jacksonville firm control of the AFC South and its playoff destiny. The Colts are favored in this game and I think the Jaguars can take this game.
Maurice Jones-Drew can control this game and get the upset for the Jags.
Upset Probability: 7 of 10 - Likely
Pittsburgh Vs. NY Jets
14 of 16
After the past two weeks, this pick might sound crazy but don't write me off just yet.
Sure, the Jets were pounded by the Patriots and then looked awful against the Miami Dolphins, but I think New York is going to bounce back this week. Pittsburgh has issues on the offensive line and I think the Jets can get to Ben Roethlisberger.
It's going to be a battle and I think the Jets can win this game and get a huge road win.
Upset Probability: 8 of 10 - Likely
Baltimore Vs. New Orleans
15 of 16
The Baltimore Ravens look ripe for an upset.
Baltimore was dominated in the second half by the Houston Texans and looked totally spent by the time the game was over. Drew Brees and the Saints are coming in and will beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
I don't think there's much of a doubt about this one.
Upset Probability: 9 of 10 - Very Likely
Minnesota Vs. Chicago
16 of 16
Someone tell me why the Vikings are favored in this game?
I really want to know why. I know they're at home, I know they'll be outside at the University of Minnesota's stadium, but the Vikings are a dumpster fire of a team at this point. I think the Bears are going to win this game and likely put a stranglehold on the NFC North.
Look for Chicago to win easily.
Upset Probability: 10 of 10 - Sure Fire Lock
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")