NFL Playoff Scenarios: Projecting Super Bowl Winner If Season Ended Today
As the NFL gets ready for the final three weeks of the season, the teams now have played 13 games.
But what if the season ended today, and we got our first taste of the playoffs this upcoming weekend?
That's what this column is for. We're going to take every team that would make the playoffs if the season ended today, and we're going to look at how the playoffs could play out under this scenario.
These prospective teams come from NFL.com's official playoff picture page unless I feel there's going to be a major change in the next three weeks, but all predictions are the sole property of the author.
You can call me crazy on some of my predictions, and that's okay. So let's see who makes the dance, who doesn't, and who is the last team standing.
AFC East: New England Patriots
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With the win over the Jets, and the Jets' subsequent loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots now own the AFC East and most likely the first round bye.
The Patriots currently are the only team to have a clinched a playoff berth.
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
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With wins over the Ravens and Bengals, the Steelers have all but locked up the AFC North. A win this week should seal the division and a first-round bye.
The Steelers will get to watch the wild card games from home while they rest and heal.
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
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Yes, we have a winner!!
I'm predicting a Colts win this weekend over Jacksonville, and a strong finish to the season, which will give them the division crown.
Take that, NFL.com!!
The Colts have their work cut out for them, but they're getting healthier, and they showed last week that they've learned from their mistakes. They'll be in the postseason come January.
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AFC West: San Diego Chargers
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Another curveball!!
Without Matt Cassel, the Chiefs folded, which is strange because Cassel was not a key part of the Chief's offense at the beginning of the season, which relied more on the running game than anything else.
But with Brodie Croyle in there, the Chiefs offense got neutered very quickly, and the Chargers won. With Cassel back, but probably not 100 percent, the Chiefs could lose again this week while the Chargers are playing like they usually do in the second half of the season.
The Chargers win the division in Week 17 and upset the balance of the universe in Kansas City.
AFC Wild Card: Baltimore Ravens
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Back to the current standings, the Baltimore Ravens get the top wild card spot, finishing behind the Pittsburgh Steelers, but ahead of everyone else.
The Ravens have a tendency to blow leads in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a loss this weekend, but they should be able to win the other two games and finish the year with an 11-5 record.
AFC Wild Card: Jacksonville Jaguars
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What!?!?!?!?
Yes.
After watching the Jets the last two weeks, I'm now convinced we are witnessing one of the most stunning team collapses in the history of the NFL. The Jets aren't winning another game this year, and Jacksonville is the team that benefits from that, squeaking into the playoffs with the final wild card spot.
That's a bold prediction, but the Jets appear to have been completely destroyed by Bill Belichick.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
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The Falcons have the most complete team in the NFL right now, and given they play Arizona, New Orleans and Carolina the last three weeks, they should wrap up the division and get the bye easily.
NFC North: Chicago Bears
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Since no one else wants to win the NFC North, the Bears will gladly take it. The Packers are folding like a house of cards, and no other team in the NFC North currently is in the playoff race.
The Bears will win the NFC North and get the first-round bye.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
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The Eagles are on fire, and I'm predicting a win versus the Giants this weekend. Therefore the Eagles will win the NFC East and make the playoffs.
NFC West: St. Louis Rams
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The St. Louis Rams will win the NFC West by default. The 49ers aren't consistent enough to get back in the race, the Cardinals just now might have found a quarterback and if the Seahawks were going to win the division, they would've done it by now.
So congratulations to the Rams for going from 1-15 to the playoffs in one year.
NFC Wild Card: New York Giants
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The Giants may lose to the Eagles this weekend, but they win out the last two weeks and grab the top wild card spot.
The Giants are a very dangerous team, and they have big playoff potential.
NFC Wild Card: New Orleans Saints
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Other than the Falcons, there's really not many teams better than the Saints in the NFC. So they wrap up the other wild card spot, and the playoffs are set and ready to go.
AFC Wild Card Game: Chargers Vs. Ravens
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The Chargers will come into the playoffs with momentum on their side and a chip on their shoulder.
The Ravens come into the game exhausted and beat up, although the final game of the season at Cincinnati won't exactly beat them up more than they already are.
The Chargers' offense is one of the best in the league, and the special teams won't give up their traditional big play that ruins it for everybody.
However, the Ravens are the tougher team and hold on for the victory.
Ravens 30 Chargers 27
AFC Wild Card Game: Jaguars Vs. Colts
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While the Colts hold on to win the division and earn a place in the playoffs, Jim Caldwell still is the head coach of the team.
This is not good as the Jaguars are known for their fourth quarter miracle comebacks, and Caldwell will be powerless to stop it.
Now that Romeo Crennel is back in the coordinator's ranks, his spiritual son, Caldwell, has begun mastering the blank, vacant stare on the sidelines as things go horribly wrong. He occasionally breaks into a look of bewilderment, but that could just be indigestion.
Jaguars 33 Colts 30
NFC Wild Card Game: Giants Vs. Eagles
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The two NFC heavyweights meet again for the third time this year, and this time it's win or go home.
The Giants, after having been beaten by the Eagles twice in 2010, finally get it all figured out. Eli Manning has a career game.
The Eagles still get a few scores in, but the Giants' defense contains Vick, and keeps LeSean McCoy from taking over.
The Giants' running game wins out, though, and the Giants move on to the divisional round.
Giants 28 Eagles 24
NFC Wild Card Game: Rams Vs. Saints
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No.
Saints 31 Rams 10
AFC Divisional Game: Ravens Vs. Patriots
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I thought about doing another snarky one-liner for this game, but I'll show the Ravens more respect than that.
The Ravens are a good team, but they're not a great team. The Patriots are one of the greatest teams over the last decade, with last season being the sole exception.
Brady and the Patriots already beat the Ravens once this year, and that was when the Patriots still were putting everything together and the offense wasn't scoring a lot of points.
Now the team is complete, Belichick has figured out how all the moving parts of this particular version of the Patriots sync up, and the last month has been devastating for opponents.
The Ravens just don't have enough to combat the Patriots' offensive or defensive attacks at the moment, or a month from now.
Patriots 30 Ravens 13
AFC Divisional Game: Jaguars Vs. Steelers
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The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the game right now, but their offense isn't so good.
While Ben Roethlisberger is an elite quarterback, it seems offensive coordinator Bruce Arians doesn't know what to do with him, or how to make everything work.
In addition, the Steelers offensive line consists of Maurkice Pouncey and some cardboard cutouts.
This will be a disaster in the playoffs, as the Steelers just won't be able to score enough points against a Jaguars team that finds ways to put points on the board between Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard.
Pittsburgh gets bounced after another fourth-quarter barrage of points, and Jaguars fans can't believe their eyes.
Jaguars 24 Steelers 17
NFC Divisional Game: Giants Vs. Falcons
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This is going to be a very hard-hitting game as the Giants and Falcons match up pretty well. Both offenses can strike with the run or the pass, and both teams have excellent defenses.
This game will go back and forth, but it won't be a low-scoring defensive battle. It won't be a huge scoring fest either, but each team is good enough to exploit the little defects in each team's game plan and keep the game interesting.
The chess match should be tied up at halftime, a three-point lead at most. Then Matt Ryan and the Falcons really adjust to the Giants and take a third-quarter lead that almost goes away but doesn't before the Falcons score again late to put the game away.
Falcons 30 Giants 20
NFC Divisional Game: Saints Vs. Bears
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The Saints have really galvanized themselves after starting the season with a major Super Bowl hangover.
The Bears, despite their record, have played inconsistent football all season, and their offensive line still is very suspect while Jay Cutler wonders week-to-week just how bad it's going to be.
The Bears' defense got ripped to shreds this past Sunday, and the only question now as we sit here in mid-December is if the team recovers from that beating.
The answer is: Kind of.
Chicago absolutely will not look that bad again, but the Saints also are good enough to not only see what Bill Belichick did to the Bears, but to copy it as well, and do it effectively.
The game isn't a blowout, but the Bears fade in the second half.
Saints 28 Bears 17
AFC Championship Game: Jaguars Vs. Patriots
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The Jaguars will go to the cold, unforgiving climate of Gillette Stadium to face the Kraken in his lair.
It won't end well for the Jaguars.
I do expect the Jaguars to make this a more entertaining game than one might think, simply because David Garrard pulls great games out of thin air at unexpected times.
The Patriots' game plan will be to shut down Maurice Jones-Drew and let Garrard come to them, which he will. The Patriots then will adjust, and coupled with their unstoppable offense, the game should remain competitive into the fourth quarter.
However, the Jags' defense won't be able to keep up with all of the Patriot options, and the game essentially is over by the middle of the fourth quarter.
Patriots 33 Jaguars 21
NFC Championship Game: Saints Vs. Falcons
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As some people have predicted, the NFC championship will come down to an NFC South battle.
This is going to be a rough game on both opponents because neither team will be willing to give an inch, and they'll have had the benefit of seeing each other twice already this season.
Atlanta edged out the Saints in the first meeting in Week 3, and I'm predicting another Atlanta victory in Week 16.
That winning trend continues as the Saints just can't get the edge on the Falcons in 2010.
Falcons 34 Saints 28
Super Bowl XLV: Patriots Vs. Falcons
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The Super Bowl matchup is set, and it's a good one. The two best teams in the league get to meet in the biggest game of them all.
Once again, you have the Falcons' multiple offensive attacks from Matt Ryan and his receivers and Michael Turner on the ground. Atlanta's defense is ranked seventh in the league in points allowed, so while they may give up yards (17th in the league), they don't let teams get into the end zone that much, proving they have a pretty good red zone defense.
However, the Falcons are ranked 17th against the pass, and that's something Belichick and Tom Brady will exploit.
The Patriots' defense currently is ranked 31st against the pass, but that number seems to have no meaning anymore given how the Patriots have played the last three weeks, so you can throw that number away as a statistical anomaly.
Still, it does mean Ryan and Roddy White can connect for more than a few passes, but it won't be enough.
The Patriots claim their fourth Super Bowl in the past decade, and New England fans everywhere go nuts.
Patriots 31 Falcons 21
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