Roll the Dice: NFL Picks for Week One: Part 1

It's that time of the year again! After a long offseason, September is here (and I'll be wide awake for it!) and with it comes a new season of NFL football. Does it get any better?

Game Of The Week: Cowboys (-5 1/2) At Browns

This game is much bigger for the Browns than for the 'Boys. It could set the tone for the rest of their season. The Browns probably felt cheated out of the playoffs last season, finishing with a surprising 9-7 record. However, their schedule this year is much tougher, starting with the NFC favorite Dallas.

Expect Dallas to Blitz

As good as Ware and Ellis are at OLB, I don't think Dallas can create much pressure just sending five against a very good Cleveland O-line. Dallas feels much better about its corners this year, and will send more rushers to get after Anderson. If you have the Dallas defense in fantasy, start them with a smile on your face.

Browns Need to Run the Rock

If Cleveland can establish Jamal Lewis, and hand the ball off around 25 times, I think they have a chance of the upset. If they can't, they simply have no shot.

Romo's Big Day

The Browns may have the worst secondary in the league, so expect Tony Romo to have 300-plus yards. He's my top fantasy QB for week one.

Barber Will Be Okay

Even with the two monsters—former Lion Shaun Rodgers and Corey Williams—in the middle, Cleveland will try to hide their weakness at corner all day, giving little help to the front three.

I can only see two outcomes: A narrow Cleveland victory or a Dallas blowout. I'm not too high on Wade Phillips, but he has immense talent at his disposal.

My Pick: Dallas to win and cover

NY Jets (-3) At Dolphins

Jets Defense

I keep reading that the Jets defense stinks and the Dolphins will be able to score on them. I disagree. I feel that this unit is underrated and part of its struggles last year was because of the offense. With the new additions, I like them to shut down the Dolphins.

Brett Favre!

The veteran gives the Jets a dimension they've lacked offensively: the deep ball. This makes Cotchery, Coles, and Jones all more attractive options in fantasy leagues.

Ricky

Ricky Williams will be the starting back for the Dolphins in week one. He looked good in the preseason, and the Dolphins' line is built for run blocking. I expect a decent, if unspectacular outing for the former star.

My Pick: Jets win and cover.

Upset Pick Of The Week: Texans At Steelers (-6 1/2)

The Texans Are the Real Deal. Kind Of.

With Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub healthy, the Texans are a team capable of nine or more wins. Johnson simply can't be covered. He'll have a big game.

The Steelers' Ground Attack Is Overrated

I've never been a big Willie Parker fan, but I loved Mendenhall out of college. However, the Steelers' O-line isn't as strong as it once was.

The Steelers' Best Chance Is Through the Air

I expect the Texans to limit the Steelers' ground attack. However, the Texans' weakness is at corner. If Big Ben has time, he'll pick the Texans secondary apart.

Mario Williams

This game will really be won in the trenches. If the Steelers' O-line can limit Williams' impact, then they'll win. I'm just not sure they can do it.

My Pick: Texans

Hope you enjoyed my first article. I'll be back, posting the rest of my picks before kickoff on Sunday. Any feedback would be welcome!