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Fantasy Football Week 14 Positional Rankings For the Playoffs: Saturday Update
Tenny StegmanDec 11, 2010
With games just one day away, FFArmory.com's Tenny Stegman rolls out his rankings for Week 14 with all of the news on injuries factored in.
QBs
- Michael Vick at DAL - 8pm Sun - Only two teams give up more QB fantasy points (Texans and Patriots), so I'd say that is enough to grant this guy the pole position.
- Drew Brees home vs. STL - 4pm Sun - He's thrown for over 300 yards in three straight games and I expect that trend to continue vs. the Rams who have given up six passing TDs over their last four games. The Rams have allowed the 12th fewest amount of fantasy points to QBs in 2010.
- Philip Rivers home vs. KC - 4pm Sun - The Bolts can't afford to lose any more games, and this one is in-division, so I expect Rivers to get back to playing October-ball in this one. He will be getting Vincent Jackson back but could be without Gates (My money is that he plays) . Meanwhile, the Chiefs will start Brodie Croyle (queue laughter button). The Chiefs are middle of the road in defending QBs (ranked 15th in fantasy points allowed).
- Aaron Rodgers at DET - 1pm Sun - Who cares who he plays, unless it's the Jets. He should shred the Lions in the first half of this one for a couple of TDs and 200-220 yards, and then start handing off the ball to his new horse, James Starks.
- Kyle Orton at ARI - 4pm Sun - I'm not so sure the Donkeys just stop passing the ball now that McDouche has been given his one-way ticket, but the Cards actually do a decent job defending the pass giving up the 15th fewest fantasy points to QBs. I'd still start Orton has a QB1, but more towards the low-end of that.
- Eli Manning - at MIN - 1pm Sun - He's getting all of his weapons back this week (Nicks and Smith), so be sure to bump Manningham down on your rankings. The Vikings have allowed 10 passing TDs over their last five games (opponents were Cardinals, Bears, Packers, Skins, and Buffalo), so Eli makes a nice start once again. It's worthy of note, though, that the Vikings seem to have his numbers. He has yet to throw a TD in the Metrodome in two games (only 260 total pass yards), and is a career 0-4 vs. them, having thrown only two TDs total in four games (both in NY).
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RBs
- Michael Turner at CAR - 1pm Sun - The Panthers have allowed 10 rushing scores in their last five games, and in one week from now, this entry will look more like 12 TDs in six games. Turner is gonna rumble and stumble and tumble is way to about 22 fantasy points in this one.
- Peyton Hillis at BUF - 1pm Sun - The Bills are again among the worst rush defenses in the NFL allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs thru 13 weeks of football love. They have coughed up six rushing scores in their five games. Hillis was shut down by the Dolphins last week, but it won't play out that way vs. the Bills.
- Maurice Jones-Drew home vs. OAK - 1pm Sun - Who cried when Ol' Yeller got shout? I cried my eyes out. If MJD was to ever get shot, it would make me even more sad than Ol' Yeller. You know why? Cuz this dude rocks. He's my favorite NFL player, and I will be rocking a MJD jersey all weekend long, baby. The Human Bowling Ball is the bomb dia. Such a work-horse. Del Rio is giving him too many carries, though, and that douche should quit taking the guy out in red-zone situations (thanks for handing the ball to Rashad Jennings for six and calling a keeper to Garrard last Sunday).
- Adrian Peterson home vs. NYG - 1pm Sun - Just remember that his 107 yard three TD performance vs. the 3rd worst rush defense was preceded by three really average outings vs. the Skins, Packers, and Bears. The G-men rank evenly with the Bears in fantasy points allowed to RBs, so don't get all depressed if AP lays an egg for you in round one of your fantasy playoffs. It's not like you can leave him on the bench, though. He's just a five ranking vs. #1 overall like ESPN has him.
- Rashard Mendenhall home vs. CIN - 1pm Sun - I like Mendy this weekend vs. a Bengals' rush defense that has allowed six rushing scores and 115 YPG average over their last five games. Mendy had a pretty meager outing vs. the Ravens' 6th ranked rush defense, but should bounce back nicely vs. a Bengals team that has rattled off nine straight losses.
- Arian Foster home vs. BAL - MNF - This is the lowest that I have ranked him this season, and I doubt I'll ever go this low again for the next couple of seasons. The Ravens defense is really strong, and have only allowed one rushing score in their last five games, however, they have allowed two passing scores to RBs and that happens to be Foster's specialty. Fire him up as a mid-tier RB1 for this week.
- Knowshon Moreno at ARI - 4pm Sun -17.5 fantasy points per game over the last four, and that, my friends, is what I like to call “enough said”. His opponents have not been cream-puffs either as all four games were against teams that rank in the top 15 in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Week 14 brings Moreno the NFL’s worst rush defense, that has managed to suck even worse than their norm over the last six games giving up an average of 28.3 fantasy points to RBs (including at least 15.5 fantasy points out one RB). The Cardinals have trailed in six of their last seven games heading into the fourth quarter which leads to plenty of rushing. The only x-factor in this one is that McDaniels got S-canned this week, and Moreno, who has done a lot of fantasy damage through the air, might see more carries than catches. That’s not really much of an x-factor in hindsight as the Cards are coughing up 4.4 YPC.
- Darren McFadden at JAC - 1pm Sun - McFadden appears to be on track after a nice 2nd half in Week 13. He faces the 16th best fantasy rush defense, so your guess is as good as mine. Kidding, no it's not. My guess is much better. McFadden will finish the week with low-end RB1 numbers, given that there aren't a lot of RBs out there with the potential for a 20+ touch game.
- Jamaal Charles at SD - 4pm Sun - The Chargers rush defense has been a weakness in their last four games letting up five rushing scores to go along with 419 ground yards. Here is what gets me pumped for JC's chances, though; two weeks straight of 20+ carries. I don't care that they were against the two of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, the point is that in each game, Thomas Jones was given less carries. JC is the guy going forward, and he's a threat every time he touches the football.
- Steven Jackson at NO - 4pm Sun - St. Louis had better start to take it easy on Jackson (57 carries in the last two games). There is no way he sees that many this weekend, as the Rams figure to be playing from behind for at least three quarters. The Saints are the 16th most porous rush defense, so he should be able to find some running room.
- Greg Jennings at DET - 1pm Sun -The Lions have allowed eight TDs over their last five games to opposing WRs. The only thing to worry about here is if Drew Stanton is unable to move the ball, and Green Bay goes up early and reverts to a heavy dose of James Starks.
- Mike Wallace home vs. CIN - 1pm Sun -The Steelers seem bent on getting Wallace involved in the offense at nearly any measure. They ran him in motion, on screens, and even a few slants in Week 13, and while it only amounted to 76 yards, it’s a clear sign that they understand who their real bread-winner is these days. The Bengals have allowed three TDs of 28 yards or more and that is Wallace’s specialty. Only two of Wallace’s 14 career TDs have been inside the RZ and none have been for less than 15 yards. Eight of his 14 TDs have been from 40+ yards. Robert Meachem has a game similar to Wallace (he has scored 10 of his 14 TDs the last two years from 30 yards out) and he caught a 52 yard bomb.
- Marques Colston home vs. STL - 4pm Sun - The Rams have allowed five passing TDs and 681 YPG to WRs over their last four games, and Colston has been on a hot streak scoring at least 10.5 fantasy points over his last three games.
- Andre Johnson home vs. BAL - MNF- The Ravens knocked the Steelers around something fierce last weekend, but the Texans are a bit more balanced than they are with the league's most dynamic RB/WR/QB combo. Their TE package of Owen Daniels (back from injury) and Joel Dreessen isn't too shabby, either. He has missed time in practice this week with an ankle injury but will play. The Ravens can be passed upon as they have allowed the 19th most fantasy PPG to WRs, but have had one of the more forgiving schedules with the Bengals, Jets, Dolphins, Carolina, Tampa, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh (no Ben)accounting for seven of their 12 games so far.
- Brandon Lloyd at AZ - 4pm Sun - The Cards are allowing the 9th most fantasy points to WRs on the season, but there is an unknown at play, here, with the exit of pass-happy Josh McDaniels calling the plays. He's still a low-end WR1 consideration.
- Steve Johnson home vs. CLE - 1pm Sun - I think he needs a difficult match-up to rock out with his clock out. He has three 100+ yard days in 12 games and they each came against pass defenses in the top ten in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (Chicago, Baltimore, and Cincinnati). Fitzpatrick has had no time to pass the past two weekends facing the Vikings and Steelers and it has affected Stevie's production (104 yard on nine catches combined). Although the Browns don't rank in the top ten defending WRs, they are close. And they don't have as fierce of a pass rush as either of the Bills' last two opponents.
- Jeremy Maclin at DAL - 8pm Sun - Opposing teams have effectively taken away the 80-yard-bomb-route from DeSean Jackson and Maclin is now the guy to own in this offense. Compare 18 catches on 28 targets for 235 yards and one TD for Maclin with 10 catches on 20 targets for 160 yards and no TDs for D-Jax. By the way - Dallas allows the most fantasy points to opposing WRs by two PPG over the second worst (Seattle).
- DeSean Jackson at DAL - 8pm Sun -Don’t be fooled by the two pick sixes last week vs. the Colts, the Dallas pass D also gave up a ton of yards over their last seven games– especially to WRs (1646 yards 14 TDs or 35 fantasy PPG to opposing WRs). Over that same seven game stretch, two receivers on the same team have hit double digit fantasy points six times.
- Calvin Johnson home vs. GB -1pm Sun - You won't find me ranking Mega-tron outside the top ten unless he's facing Revis, however this game could be a bit lean for him. He was able to notch a TD with Stanton under center facing the Bears' who allow opposing WRs the sixth fewest points, but the Packers have better cover corners (Woodson) and an equally good pass rush. Stanton had a little beginners luck last week, and won't be so lucky this week; I say Mega's numbers could suffer. The fact that he is QB match-up-proof prevents me from ranking him any lower.
- Roddy White at CAR - 1pm Sun - The Panthers have only allowed two passing TDs to WRs over their last five games, and only eight on the season. The Panther CBs are the lone bright spot on this team, so why would the Falcons bother to pass once they have a two TD lead? They won't. If you look to White's big games this season, they've each come in close games (Weeks 10, 7, 5, 4, and 1). This one will not be close.
- Miles Austin home vs. PHI - 8pm Sun - Now that Dez Bryant is out of the way, maybe Miles can get back to some league-leading fantasy numbers. I would have guessed that the Eagles had a worse pass defense ranking vs. WRs, but they are 15th best in that category. Jon Kitna is on every start-em list in the industry this week (ours, too) so if he tanks, everyone was wrong. With the extra targets, I say Miles chalks up his first 100+ yard game in six weeks to go along with a 30+ yard TD playing from behind.]
- Anquan Boldin at HOU - MNF - 'Quan owners need to get seriously fired up for this match-up as the Texans allow 179 YPG and 1.3 TDPG to opposing WRs through 12 weeks (29th ranked). He has yet to face a bottom three pass defense this year, especially one that has a high-powered offense as a complement.
TEs
- Antonio Gates home vs. KC - 4pm Sun - Like I said a few times, I don't care if he has a pair of crutches out there on the field with him, as long as he suits and lines up in formation, he's the first TE to consider in fantasy. I could care less how many fantasy points per game that KC allows to TEs (3rd fewest), Gates will score if he plays. Period.com.
- Vernon Davis home vs. SEA - 4pm Sun - With Delanie Walker out of the way, and Alex Smith again under center, expect Vernon Davis to go ballistic in this one. Seattle allows the 6th fewest fantasy points to TEs on the season.
- Brent Celek at DAL - 8pm Sun - Vick is targeting him more now (15 in the last two games) that opposing teams have opted to dedicate a safety from preventing the deep TD bombs to DeSean. He's only got seven catches to show for it, as the two have had a rough time establishing a rapport. Celek has dropped a couple easy ones, and Vick, who learned accuracy behind bars, apparently is struggling with it when it comes to big, white Tight Ends. Kidding, the race card has no place here. I expect these two to start clicking more, and Celek plays his best football in December, check it.
- Tony Gonzalez at CAR - 1pm Sun - This is a great match up for Tony G as the Panthers allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Sure, this one might get out of hand early, but the Panthers have excellent CBs, but their LB crew is not much to contend with this year. I was expecting more from Tony this season, but he still ranks 8th in the league in fantasy points through 12 games.

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