Indianapolis Colts: Examining Their Quest For a Playoff Spot

The Indianapolis Colts took the first big step in righting their season by narrowly defeating the Tennessee Titans, 30-28, last night. The win improves the Colts to 7-6 and puts them within a half game of the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars, who play the Oakland Raiders on Sunday.

But despite the win, the Colts' playoff aspirations are still in question. If the season were to end today Indianapolis would be watching football in February rather than playing it.

This would be a big blow to a franchise that hasn't missed the playoffs since 2001 and has a Hall-of-Fame quarterback who, at 34 years old, isn't getting any younger.

But there is still hope. Here's a look at what has to happen for the Colts to clinch a playoff spot for the ninth consecutive season.

The Standings

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FOXBORO, MA - DECEMBER 06: James Sanders #36 of the New England Patriots celebrates after he intercepted a pass against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on December 6, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

The AFC playoff picture as of December 10th.

1. New England Patriots: 10-2
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-3
3. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-4
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-5
5. New York Jets: 9-3
6. Baltimore Ravens: 8-4

The Colts would be seventh on this list with a 7-6 record, but they're not alone in competing for a playoff spot. The Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers and Miami Dolphins are all at 6-6 and could challenge for the second wild card berth if they win all of their remaining games.

It's unlikely the Colts would be able to pass either the Ravens or the Jets, so their best chance at making the playoffs is to win the AFC South. But can they do it?

The Jaguars Schedule

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NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 05: Quarterback David Garrard #9 of the Jacksonville Jaguars rolls out against the Tennessee Titans at LP Field on December 5, 2010 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Jaguars won 17-6. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

The Jaguars play the 6-6 Raiders on Sunday in a game they should be able to win. But even if they lose, Jacksonville would still own the tiebreaker over the Colts for first place in the AFC South.

After this week, the Jaguars have games remaining against Indianapolis, Washington and Houston. The Redskins and Texans are both beatable, which puts Jacksonville in a position where they control their own destiny for the rest of the season.

The Colts Schedule

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NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 09: Jacob Tamme #84 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball after a reception while defended by Stephen Tulloch #55 of the Tennessee Titans during the NFL game at LP Field on December 9, 2010 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Phot

The Colts play Jacksonville next week in a must-win game that will be played at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. After that, the Colts face the Raiders and, in the final week of the season, the Titans again.

A single loss by the Colts may end their season if the Jaguars continue to play well. But aside from the matchup with Jacksonville, none of Indianapolis' remaining opponents are particularly intimidating.

The Matchup

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 03: Running back Maurice Jones-Drew #32 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs against the Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Field on October 3, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars won 31-28. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

The Jaguars and Colts met earlier this season in a Week 4 matchup that went to Jacksonville, 31-28. 

It took a 59-yard game-winning field goal by Josh Scobee to seal the win, but the Jaguars played the Colts tight and led most of the way. 

This game was also before RB Joseph Addai, WR Austin Collie and TE Dallas Clark all suffered injuries that would turn the once unstoppable Colts offense into just a good one.

The rematch is guaranteed to be a closely fought game, and one that the Colts have to win.

The Breakdown

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 03: Running back Maurice Jones-Drew #32 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs against the Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Field on October 3, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that the Colts defeat the Jaguars next week. Let's also assume that the Colts win all of their remaining games and the Jaguars win the rest of their games.

This scenario would give the Colts and Jaguars each a 10-6 record, with a 1-1 head-to-head record. Both teams would also have a 4-2 record within the division, and a 8-4 conference record. This is where things get interesting.

The tiebreaker in this case would be the two teams' respective records against common opponents. 

Both teams will have played Denver, Oakland, Kansas City, San Diego, Houston (twice), Tennessee (twice), Philadelphia, New York Giants, Washington and Dallas.

The Colts record against those teams, under our preconditions, projects to be 8-4.

The Jaguars record against those teams projects to be 7-5.

That means that the Colts would win the AFC South. But all of these tiebreakers are irrelevant if the Colts can't take care of business next week against Jacksonville in a game that may be one of the season's best.