NFL Picks Week 14: Kansas City Chiefs Cover, No Thanks on Chicago Bears

Last week's record against the spread: 4-5

Overall record against the spread: 60-42 (59 percent)

I'm not going to sugar coat it folks, I have botched the last few weeks. I started off strong at one point, being at 67 percent.

Then I got carried away with picking some of the same teams to cover every week, which became a bad idea.

Still, I am sitting at a respectable 59 percent in my picks against the spread, and there are some great games this week for the NFL fans to be excited about.

I'm taking eight games against the spread this week, but I can tell you right now that Chicago to cover or beat New England is definitely not one of them.

Here are the spreads for each game this week.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: Indianapolis -3

Oakland at Jacksonville: Jacksonville -4

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh -8.5

New England at Chicago: New England -3

Cleveland at Buffalo: Buffalo -1

NY Giants at Minnesota: NY Giants -2.5

Green Bay at Detroit: Green Bay -6.5

Atlanta at Carolina: Atlanta -7

Tampa Bay at Washington: Tampa Bay -2

St. Louis at New Orleans: New Orleans -9

Seattle at San Francisco: San Francisco -5.5

Miami at NY Jets: NY Jets -5.5

Denver at Arizona: Denver -5.5

Kansas City at San Diego: San Diego -7

Philadelphia at Dallas: Philadelphia -3.5

Oakland +4 at Jacksonville

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

OAKLAND, CA - SEPTEMBER 19: Darren McFadden #20 of the Oakland Raiders runs with the ball during their game against the St. Louis Rams at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on September 19, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Sorry Jaguars fans.

You may have the best record in the AFC South, but I just can't buy you as a serious team.

In fact, not only can I not take you seriously, but I think the Oakland Raiders can beat you.

The Raiders are coming off a huge win against the San Diego Chargers and are sitting at 6-6, which is already better than last season.

They swept the Chargers, demolished the Broncos and took down the division leader Kansas City Chiefs as well.

I'm tempted to take Oakland straight up here, but take them to cover at least.

Cincinnati +8.5 at Pittsburgh

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

CINCINNATI - NOVEMBER 08: Chad Ochocinco #85 and Terrell Owens #81 of the Cincinnati Bengals is celebrate Owens touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium on November 8, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Imag

Pittsburgh is hot right now. Plain and simple.

The Steelers deserve to be on top of the division after the performance they had against Baltimore.

But an 8.5 point spread is just too much to pass up.

The Bengals look horrifying right now as far as their record goes, but they have had some good games this season.

I feel a T.O.chocinco surge coming this weekend.

Take the Bengals to cover.

Cleveland +1 at Buffalo

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MIAMI - DECEMBER 05: Running back Peyton Hillis #40 of the Cleveland Browns carries against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium on December 5, 2010 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

Cleveland and Buffalo are the two main teams I have found myself picking against the spread every week and it has gotten me into trouble at times.

But it has also paid off at times.

This week, they play each other, and I am absolutely looking forward to it.

With the closest spread of the week, even Vegas knows this is going to be a close one, but I think Vegas picked wrong.

Since you can't really cover a one point spread, take Cleveland straight up over the Bills.

Green Bay -6.5 at Detroit

Leon Halip/Getty Images

DETROIT - DECEMBER 05: Drew Stanton #5 of the Detroit Lions warms-up prior to the start of the game against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field on December 5, 2010 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

This one, I admit, is tricky.

Detroit covered against the Packers last time in Green Bay, losing by only two. I actually made the right pick that week.

Both teams have done a lot of changing since then.

Injuries are hurting both teams and neither is really living up to its full potential.

Still, I smell another close one in the Motor City, and I'm taking the Lions against the spread in this game.

Tampa Bay -2 at Washington

Chris McGrath/Getty Images

LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 15: Chris Cooley #47 of the Washington Redskin runs onto the field against the Philadelphia Eagles on November 15, 2010 at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Tampa Bay has surprised everyone this season with its ability to hang right in there with the best of them.

Last week, they took the Falcons down to the wire in a game so close that one instant replay could have changed the outcome.

Washington is at home here and is due to make something happen.

The Bucs are a good team, but I'm just not feeling them this week.

Maybe with Albert Haynesworth finally gone, the distractions will be too and the Redskins can get the job done.

St. Louis +9 at New Orleans

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 05: Quarterback Sam Bradford #8 of the St. Louis Rams scrambles to pass the football during the NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium on December 5, 2010 in Glendale, Arizona. The Rams defeate

No doubt about it, this is going to be one tough game for Sam Bradford and the St. Louis Rams.

Coming into the Superdome and coming out with a win is not an easy feat.

With Sam Bradford on his way to a Rookie of the Year award, the Rams are leading the NFC West.

Granted they are doing so with a 6-6 record, but still, I wouldn't be shocked if the Rams have a good game against the Saints on Sunday.

I might not take them to win, but I would definitely take covering the nine point spread.

Seattle +5.5 at San Francisco

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

SEATTLE - DECEMBER 05: Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck #8 of the Seattle Seahawks passes against the Carolina Panthers at Qwest Field on December 5, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. The Seahawks won, 31-14. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

After two absolutely humiliating losses in the last three weeks, the 49ers are anything but impressive right now.

They have shown signs of improvement here and there, but still have a long way to go before they are the division winner we all thought they would be.

Seattle isn't much better, but it is right on the heels of the Rams for the division lead, and taking San Francisco by 5.5 is an insult to Seahawks fans.

San Francisco might actually pull this one out.

But I would be more tempted to say Seattle will win outright or at least cover.

Kansas City +7 at San Diego

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SEATTLE - NOVEMBER 28: Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe #82 of the Kansas City Chiefs rushes against Lofa Tatupu #51 of the Seattle Seahawks at Qwest Field on November 28, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

A week ago if you said Tom Brady would have a field day against the Jets while Philip Rivers struggled against the Raiders, I would have laughed at you.

That only goes to show you just how unpredictable football can be.

Vegas is predicting the Chargers to bounce back and take out the division leading Chiefs by seven.

Personally, I think Vegas is crazy.

I haven't quite figured out yet how the Chiefs are doing so well, but the fact is they are 8-4 and are very close to clinching the division and the playoffs.

The last time these teams faced off in Week 1, the Chiefs won 21-14.

We may not get the exact same outcome, but I'm still willing to bet the Chiefs cover the seven point spread if nothing else.