Gambling on the Games: NFL Week 1

With free agency weakening teams' offensive lines, defenses, and QB-WR cohesion these days, even Lefty Rosenthal in his prime would have problems picking NFL games.

The coach carousel spins faster each year, QB play is mostly bad, and the officiating varies based on crews' mood swings and views of the rules.

The NFL is near pure parity with the "good" teams only a key injury or two ahead of the bad ones.

The loss of Tom Brady or Peyton Manning turns those clubs into 8-8 teams, or worse.

All these factors make it tough to pick NFL games. Well, it's tough to ever hit anything. And don't forget the old saying, that a gambler with a system must be, to some extent, insane.

But it's football, dammit, so let's "roll dem bones" to feed that jones anyway.

St. Louis Rams +7 1/2 at the Philadelphia Eagles

The Rams haven't looked good in the preseason. Their star RB Steven Jackson wandered into camp late, and their talent level is low with many of their key players getting old.

Expect the Eagles' defense to dominate a bad St. Louis offense and bang around slow-footed Marc Bulger with various blitzes. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook will reward the Eagles' faithful with a home opening rout of the Rams.

Eagles 38-16 for four units.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at the Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have been battered by injuries; the Bears offense is just bad. The Colts' brand new Lucas Oil Stadium will be rocking, making audibles and blitz pick up for the Bears' offense near impossible.

Expect the Colts' blitzes to overwhelm the Bears' weak offensive line, and then watch Colts RB Joseph Addai wear down the tiring Bears defense in the second half. 

Colts 37-13 for three units.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at the Tennessee Titans

Hate laying points with conservative coach Jack Del Rio on the road, but QB Vince Young and the Titans' offense just look pitiful.

Jaguars 24-16 for two units

Carolina Panthers +9 at the San Diego Chargers

Norv Turner usually starts badly and Julius Peppers and the Panthers' defense looked revitalized in the preseason. Grab the nine and hope for a cover.

San Diego Chargers 25-21 for one unit

Houston Texans +6 1/2 at the Pittsburgh Steelers

I'm not sold on the Steelers' coaching staff or their offense. Then again, the Texans never seem able to rise to the next level. Here's a stab thinking that this year the emerging Texans defense will keep all their games close.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19-17

Last Man Standing Stab: The Philadelphia Eagles

Good luck, happy hunting, and enjoy week 1.