2011 NFL Draft: Odds Each Team Tries To Pull a First-Round Trade
Every year at the NFL draft there are always a litany of trades and trade rumors. Teams are jockeying for position to get that instant impact player that can take them from mediocrity to powerhouse, from laughingstock to contender. It's still very early and we don't have final draft positions settled yet but we do know what the strengths and weaknesses of every team is.
Here is a (very premature) list of every team and their odds of pulling off a trade in the first round of the draft. The list is based on what team needs are/will be and the talent level of that position in the draft.
#1. Carolina Panthers
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If the Panthers stay in the No.1 spot come draft time, it will be interesting to see if the (presumed) new regime views Jimmy Clausen as a franchise quarterback. That will likely determine which direction the Panthers go. Andrew Luck could make the decision difficult for them but that's what makes the draft great. If they like Clausen enough to go with him, they could trade down and acquire extra picks to help build their defensive line, once their strength now it's a mess.
Odds They Trade: Moderate.
#2.Cincinnati Bengals
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If the Panthers pass up on Luck, the Bengals may look at the QB since Carson Palmer has never recovered from that torn ACL against Pittsburgh in the playoffs in 2005. They need help on the defensive front seven, as evidenced by their 23rd ranked run defense, and could look at a defensive lineman. This draft has a number of quality D-lineman and LB's which would make trading down more attractive to them.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#3. Buffalo Bills
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The Bills would love to get Andrew Luck to anchor their franchise. They haven't had a Pro Bowl QB since Jim Kelly left and Ryan Fitzpatrick is (likely) not the future. They also need help on the D-line, they are last in the league in run defense (167.4 ypg) and near the bottom of the league in sacks.
Odds They Trade: High
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#4. Detroit Lions
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The Lions rebuilding process is getting better, though they need Matthew Stafford to stay healthy. They have an all-pro receiver in Calvin Johnson and they drafted Ndamukong Suh who can anchor a D-line for the next decade. They need help in the secondary and this draft has two top-level corners in LSU's Patrick Peterson and Nebraska's Prince Amukamara. Florida's Janoris Jenkins is just a tier below them and could be had a bit later in the first round.
Odds They Trade: Moderately Low
#5. Dallas Cowboys
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Without an elite level RB in the draft, the Cowboys will look to fill their needs on the defensive side of the ball, including the defensive line. They could also look to trade down and get more picks later in the draft and get the best RB in this draft, Alabama's Mark Ingram. It helps that there are a number of top flight D-linemen in this year's draft.
Odds They Trade: Moderate.
#6. Arizona Cardinals
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Kurt Warner's retirement has left the Cardinals with a Grand Canyon sized hole at the quarterback spot. There are three first round QB's in Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker. It really comes down to how much Arizona likes one of the three: if they view Luck as a cut above the rest they will try and move up, if they think Locker or Mallett is on Luck's level they may stand firm and draft one of them. Either way, Arizona is going after a QB.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#7. Denver Broncos
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The Broncos defense is a wreck, they need all kinds of help in the secondary and up front. They could draft a cornerback to groom as Champ Bailey's replacement or they could go for a big run stopping DT that can help Elvis Dumervil rack up those sacks when he returns next year.
Odds They Trade: Low
#8. San Francisco 49ers
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It's safe to say that the Alex Smith experiement has failed and that Troy Smith, no matter how many games they win with him, is not the answer at QB either. If none of the QB's are left at this spot look for the 49ers to go defense and draft someone to help their secondary. If two of the three QB's are left, they may look to move down to rack up some extra picks while still getting either Locker or Mallett.
Odds They Trade: Moderate.
#9. Cleveland Browns
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If these spots hold with San Francisco, Cleveland, Minnesota and Tennesse picking in succession there could be a run on QB's taken, though there are only three first-round worthy QB's teams will reach if they think that there is something there (see: Denver with Tim Tebow or Tampa Bay with Josh Freeman). Cleveland has found a running back and now they need more playmakers at the skill positions. They could go WR or defensive front.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High.
#10. Minnesota Vikings
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Assuming that the Brett Favre saga (finally) ends at the end of this year, the Vikings will need a QB. The defense is solid, they have just been killed by all the turnovers from the offense. Look for the Vikings to move up to acquire one of the QB's, possibly the Brett Favre clone Jake Locker.
Odds They Trade: High.
#11.Tennessee Titans
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The Vince Young-Jeff Fisher relationship could be damaged beyond repair and that could effect the way the Titans approach this draft. If the Titans fix things with Young or find a replacement via free-agency or trade they will look to fill their biggest need in the secondary. The top three could be gone at this point so moving down would likely be in their best interest.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High.
#12. New England Patriots*
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This one is almost too easy. Bill Belichick doesn't like picking in the first round and he has two first round picks this year. He may look at the secondary and see that it has been getting lit up and use some of these picks that he has to move up and take one of the two impact corners. It's also entirely possible that he trades down to stockpile later picks to draft for depth on the team.
Odds They Trade: Very High.
*From Oakland Raiders
#13. Houston Texans
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Another team looking for secondary help, the Texans pass defense has been awful this year. They seem to have a lot of the pieces in place with the exception of that secondary which leads me to believe that Gary Kubiak will try to move up for the cornerback that the Texans desperately need.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High.
#14. Washington Redskins
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The Redskins have Donovan McNabb at QB, at least that's how things appear right now, and they need to get him some toys to play with. The Redskins collection of wide receivers is awful. Santana Moss would be a decent number two and he is their number one. Georgia's AJ Green is hands-down the best receiver in this draft and could be a top-five pick. If Washington becomes enamored with him they will do what they can to move up and grab him. If not, they could trade down and get Julio Jones later on in the first round or possibly early in the second.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#15. Seattle Seahawks
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Seattle is in an interesting position because they need a RB, OL, DB and DL. At this position, they could likely get Alabama RB Mark Ingram or one of the top offensive lineman in the draft. However, if they view corner or defensive line as the more pressing need they could try and package a deal to get in the top five and get one of the big corners or move down and get a guy like Miami DB Brandon Harris.
Odds They Trade: Moderate
#16. St Louis Rams
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The Rams have gotten their franchise QB in Sam Bradford, now they will likely want to surround him with guys who can make him even better. They have a lot of needs but they may look to go WR early in the draft. The top two guys are AJ Green and Julio Jones, the difference between the two is significant. AJ Green is a top-five talent, Julio Jones is a late-first, early-second round talent. It's a matter of whether or not the Rams will want to give up all that they would have to in order to move up the sufficient number of spots to get Green.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High.
#17. Indianapolis Colts
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The Colts don't generally trade draft picks, especially early picks. They have Peyton Manning and they know that he will win them a lot of games so they plug in players on the defense that are good enough to not lose them games. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are studs but beyond that they don't have a strong defensive presence. This year had been awful for the Colts because everyone has gotten hurt on the offense besides Manning and it is taking its toll. The Colts may draft skill guys who are younger or they could draft an inside presence of the defensive line to help in run prevention.
Odds They Trade: Low
#18. Miami Dolphins
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The Dolphins are in an interesting spot because they are solid on defense and they still haven't been able to fully evaluate Chad Henne. They can look at the RB position, where Ricky Williams is old and Ronnie Brown has never lived up to his potential, or they could pull the trigger on a QB, like Cam Newton, who would be available later in the first round or possibly the second round.
Odds They Trade: Moderately Low
#19. San Diego Chargers
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The Chargers have as much talent as any team in football, they just have to find a way to make that show on a consistent basis. They haven't had a pass rusher since Shawne Merriman was suspended for PED's last year and could look to fill that spot. A linebacker, like UCLA's Akeem Ayers, could fit into the Chargers 3-4, or they could look for a speedy DE, like Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue. Both guys are likely top-15 picks.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#20. Jacksonville Jaguars
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As I said in my 2011 draft preview, the Jaguars will want to make a splash in the draft to try and excite the city and bring people to the stadium. I can see them going after Cam Newton because of the name recognition that he has and the fact that he can draw people in, at least early on, out of curiosity. If the Jaguars like Newton, they should try to trade down because he will likely be available in the beginning of the second round. Although, if they view him as a legit franchise QB they may take him here.
Odds They Trade: Moderate
#21. Green Bay Packers
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If the Packers think that Ryan Grant can fully recover and be the 1200 yard guy that he was in 2008 & 2009, they will likely stay away from the RB position. If they do that, they will look to upgrade the defensive line with someone like Miami's Allen Bailey or Ohio State's Cameron Heyward, both of whom would likely be available in this spot.
Odds They Trade: Low
#22. New York Giants
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The Giants are in a good spot because they don't have a lot of glaring weaknesses. They rank in the top-10 in pass yards per game, rushing yards per game, pass yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game. They do emulate their head coach, Tom Coughlin, very strong, tough-minded, all business. They may look to the offensive line for some help. There isn't an elite-level guy on the OL coming out this year but there are a lot of guys in the 15-25 range, it's just a matter of if they view all of these guys as similar talents or one stands out above the rest.
Odds They Trade: Low
#23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Buccaneers need speed-rushers. They need a guy who can put the pressure on the QB. Fortunately, there are a few of them with the best of the bunch being Texas A&M's Von Miller. He has lightning quick speed coming off the edges or from the LB position. He is a top-15 talent so getting him will likely require some movement on the Bucs part.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#24. Kansas City Chiefs
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Matt Cassel is finding that something that he had when he was the Patriots starting QB in 2008. Jamaal Charles is a stud RB and Dwayne Bowe is emerging as a WR. The defense still needs some work, particularly in the secondary where they rank 24th in opponents pass yards per game. The Chiefs would likely have to give up at least one future first-round pick to be able to move up enough to get one of the three first round cornerbacks, though they could move back a little bit and pick up a guy like Virginia's Ras-I Dowling. Don't be surprised if they look for a pass rusher to take some pressure off the secondary.
Odds They Trade: Low
#25. Philadelphia Eagles
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With Michael Vick as the QB, the Eagles will look to upgrade a below-average offensive line to ensure that Vick can stay in the pocket and use his arm to win games and reduce his chances of getting hurt having to scramble. There are a lot of OL that are late first, early second round talents giving the Eagles some flexibility to make a potential move.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#26. Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Steelers, a lot like the Eagles, need to upgrade their offensive line. They have a number of options to choose from, they drafted Maurice Pouncey last year and some early mocks have them interested in his brother, Mike.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#27. New Orleans Saints
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The Saints defense has improved this year but they still need to get better with the front four. They need a guy to plug in there who can be a run stopper to anchor that defense. If they want to get a guy like that Illinois DT Corey Liuget could be here for the taking. If the Saints decide they want to get more of a pass rusher in the middle they could go after LSU's DT Drake Nevis, who is smaller for a DT but can rush the passer. He will likely be in the top-20 picks so New Orleans would have to move up to get him.
Odds They Trade: Low
#28. Chicago Bears
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The Bears are in desperate need of an offensive lineman. Unlike the Eagles and Steelers, whose QB's have the ability to scramble, the Bears and Jay Cutler need protection and time to take full advantage of his arm. The best O-lineman is Nate Solder from Colorado. Moving up to get him would be too costly, but if they can package some picks and get into the top 20 they could go after Wisconsin T Gabe Carimi, who is a huge mammoth at 6'6" 318 pounds. He would fit nicely into the Bears style and would be used to the frigid temperatures of Chicago in December and January.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#29. Baltimore Ravens
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The Ravens could draft in a number of ways, most likely they will look to find guys who can contribute early and eventually replace some of their older players, like Ray Lewis or Ed Reed, who talks about retirement at least once a year. If they go after a safety the best available in the draft is UCLA's Rahim Moore, who is a late first round talent and will likely be available here for them.
Odds They Trade: Low
#30. New England Patriots
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Basically everything I said for them at the No.12 pick would apply here. However, since this is a late first round pick and they are much cheaper than early picks the Patriots could go after a LB here, like a Jeremy Beal from Oklahoma. Of course it's entirely possible that they move out of the first round and pick up a bunch of second, third, and fourth round picks.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#31. Atlanta Falcons
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Atlanta's glaring weakness for the last two or three years has been in the secondary. Matt Ryan is great, the running game is back, the run defense is great, it's just the secondary that is hurting this team. Probably unable to move up to get a corner without sacrificing a future first round pick means that the Falcons could move out of round one and build up some extra picks in the third and fourth round to add depth.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
#32. New York Jets
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The Jets will have a lot of free agents at the WR position, including Santonio Holmes, Brad Smith, and Braylon Edwards. It's unlikely the Jets let Holmes leave, but they may want to save some cap space and let Edwards walk away and draft a receiver. Unfortunately, the WR position is really thin this year so they may have to move up to get Julio Jones, who is the second best wideout in this draft.
Odds They Trade: Moderately High
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