Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Week 13's Not-So-Obvious Roster Decisions
FFArmory.com breaks down all of the not-so-obvious starts by position with an insane attention to statistics and detail.
QB: Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman
RB: LT2, Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook, Knowshon Moreno, LeGarrette Blount, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte
WR: Earl Bennett, Wes Welker, Mike Williams-TB, Michael Crabtree, Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Mario Manningham
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Visanthe Shiancoe
Which are starts and which are sits? Keep clicking!
Start Jay Cutler—@ Detroit
1 of 21
He’s not quite the fantasy gold mine that many were expecting with Mike Martz calling the plays, but Cutler did chalk up 28.8 fantasy points in Week 1 vs. the Lions this season.
They are actually his favorite opponent; he averages 27 PPG vs. the Lions over his three games as a Bear vs. only 18.8 in his other 23 games wearing the navy blue and orange.
Playing against the Lions defense is again a fantasy jackpot, but they are especially bad in the red zone. They have allowed seven RZ TDs on only 16 pass attempts over the last four games. Cutler has thrown his last 13 TD passes inside the RZ. It's a match made in fantasy heaven, and please do not pardon the pun.
Furthermore, Martz is calling more pass plays (59.6 percent) in the RZ over the last five games, of which 10 have resulted in passing TDs. The Bears only have two rushing TDs in that time. Cutler is a solid QB1 start this week.
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Start Matt Cassel—Home Vs. Denver
2 of 21
Until someone coats Dwayne Bowe with the powder from a fire extinguisher, and as long as he is facing a crap pass defense like the Broncos, you’d be wise to play Matt Cassel if you have him on your roster.
He’s averaging 24.2 PPG over his last five games, good for fourth best among QBs. It’s looking like Charlie Weis’ system does translate nicely in the pros (Golden Tate must be missing his old college coach).
Cassel threw for 469 yards and four TD passes vs. Denver in their first meeting, but keep in mind that KC fell behind 35-0 early. Let’s assume the tables turn a bit in this one, and it’s the Chiefs that are out to an early lead. Do you honestly think that crybaby Todd Haley has forgotten that game a few weeks ago? No, he’s still feeling pretty salty is my guess.
The Broncos' pass defense is really starting to fall apart. Over their last four games they are allowing 28.9 fantasy points to opposing QBs, and Philip Rivers is the only QB they have faced in that four-game stretch that is top 11 QB in average points scored at the position. The Broncos are currently giving up the fifth most points to fantasy QBs.
You’d have to be sitting on Rivers, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers to pass up plugging Cassel into your lineup in this matchup.
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Start Mark Sanchez—@ New England
3 of 21
There is a bit of a paradigm shift going on with the Jets. Mark Sanchez’s charter used to be to not lose games for the Jets and let the offensive line blast holes open for their backfield, and the defense ultimately would bring home the glory.
The Jets’ running attack has cooled over the last four games with Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson attempting 121 carries for 427 yards for an uncool 3.53 YPC average and zero TDs.
They need the Dirty one, and he’s been up to the task. He’s already attempted more passes in 11 games than he did in 15 games played in 2009.
I’m working up a theory that Santonio Holmes might be a prime factor in all of this. Check it: Sanchez averaged 26 pass attempts per game in the first four games in 2010, compared with an average of 37.3 attempts per game in his last seven since Holmes came off suspension.
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Start Carson Palmer—Home Vs. New Orleans
4 of 21
The Saints give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, but how good are they really? They have faced one team all year that ranks in the top 12 in fantasy points scored at the QB position. Seven of the other 10 games have been against teams that QBs rank in the bottom seven in fantasy points scored.
The Saints allowed Matt Hasselbeck and Jon Kitna to average 339.5 passing yards, a 72.1 completion percentage and a 7.9 YPA average.
Palmer is garbage, and he has backup written all over him after this season, but with T-Ocho, he can still be productive. Before last week’s drubbing at the hands of the surging Jets pass defense (they are third best in the league over the last five games), Palmer had at least two TDs in seven of his last eight games.
The Bengals will find themselves in a hole by the second quarter, forcing Palmer into another 35-plus pass attempt Sunday afternoon.
You can ignore this recommendation if you play in a league that docks points for poor completion percentage, as I am not expecting that to look pretty.
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Start Josh Freeman—Home Vs. Atlanta
5 of 21
The blueprint to beat Atlanta involves a heavy amount of passing. The Falcons have not allowed one rushing TD from a RB inside the red zone this season (and only one total—which was to Aaron Rodgers last weekend).
Opposing QBs are averaging 26.5 fantasy points against these Falcons over the last six games. Freeman put up 20.6 fantasy points in Week 9 against them, and I expect a similar output.
You’d have to be sitting on a crap matchup or crap fantasy team by having to play him this week, but the good news is that he won’t be goosed.
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Start LaDainian Tomlinson—@ New England
6 of 21
Yes, he is starting to wear down. He averaged at least 4.7 YPC in each of his first five games this season; however, in his last six games he has not averaged higher than 3.7 YPC.
His targets, though, have been increasing. Check it: In his last five games, Tomlinson has 40 targets or an average of eight per game, and that is especially huge given his opponent.
The Patriots have given up the most receptions, passing yards and passing fantasy points to RBs this season. RBs are averaging 7.5 fantasy PPG through the air vs. the Pats.
Finally, the Jets are bound to be in a goal-line situation here at some point, and every one of those GL carries has gone to LT2 to date. Keep the faith—at least for one more week.
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Start Mike Tolbert—Home Vs. Oakland
7 of 21
Ryan Mathews will likely return, but just remember that it’s Mike Tolbert that gets all the money shots. Mathews has zero goal-line totes to Tolbert’s 12 (seven of which he has converted for six).
Furthermore, in games where Tolbert has been given at least 15 touches, he is averaging 16.8 fantasy PPG, including scoring TDs in seven of his last eight games.
What’s more, as the injuries mount up to Charger pass catchers, Norv Turner has leaned on Tolbert to the tune of 51 rushing attempts vs. 47 passing attempts for Philip Rivers over the last two games.
The Chargers built big leads in both games, and it’s almost certain to happen again, as Oakland won’t be able to keep up with the Chargers offense. Tolbert is a rock-solid start this weekend.
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Start Brandon Jacobs—Home Vs. Washington
8 of 21
The Redskins have allowed five RBs to reach 13 fantasy points in their last three games alone. On the season they allowed Joseph Addai, Brandon Jackson and Jerome Harrison to have their only 100-yard rushing games of the year.
Brandon Jacobs has looked good this year, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Jacobs got the start last week over Ahmad Bradshaw and led the carry count by a 14-9 margin and didn’t disappoint with a 6.2 YPC average. Bradshaw got the only goal-line carry, mind you, but Jacobs should find pay dirt this weekend with about 70 yards.
Start Knowshon Moreno—@ Kansas City
9 of 21
Just as Josh McDaniels bragged before the season started, Knowshon Moreno has been getting it done through the air with 120-plus yards and a TD over his last three games—just through the air. He is averaging 16.9 fantasy points over his last five games, which is good for seventh best in the NFL.
The receiving yards should continue this weekend, as the Chiefs are giving up 6.4 points to RBs through the air, which is fifth highest in the league. Moreno lit the Chiefs up for 21.6 points a few weeks ago.
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Start Steven Jackson—@ Arizona
10 of 21
Gone are the days where Steven Jackson was an automatic start and matchup-proof. Speaking of proof, he has scored only seven TDs in his last 26 games. Fugly. The 26 games before that he had scored 20 TDs.
It has taken him 18 goal-line carries to score just three goal-line TDs; credit the offensive line for some of these woes.
The good news this week is that you can go on ahead and toss all of those stats out the window because the Cardinals give up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Here’s a mind-bender for you: Six different RBs scored at least 10.9 fantasy points over the last three games vs. this defense. Eight RBs have notched their fantasy point high in 2010 vs. this defense.
Even Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett got in on the action, as they combined to score 27.7 fantasy points. For perspective, no team in the league is averaging more than 27.1 fantasy PPG at RB, and the Seahawks rank dead last.
This defense has had 62 red zone plays run against them over the last four games, resulting in four RZ TDs. Jackson currently ranks 17th in fantasy points scored at RB, but he could move up to 13th after this week.
Start Matt Forte—@ Detroit
11 of 21
Like sand through the hourglass, so are the fantasy points for Matt Forte vs. the Lions.
He is averaging 131.4 total yards, has scored five TDs and is averaging 19.1 fantasy PPG in his last five games vs. the Lions.
Five different RBs (Forte, LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Adrian Peterson and Brandon Jacobs) had their fantasy season highs vs. Detroit.
You shouldn’t need much more than that to get him in there.
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Start Earl Bennett—@ Detroit
12 of 21
Earl Bennett has only been targeted 14 times over his last three games, but eight of them have been in the RZ, which is two times more than Devin Hester and Johnny Knox combined over the same time frame.
Jay Cutler’s last 13 TD passes have been in the RZ, and he has become quite comfortable with targeting Bennett. The Lions have given up six RZ passing TDs on only 13 pass attempts over their last three games.
Start Mike Williams TB—Home Vs. Atlanta
13 of 21
Given how stingy Atlanta’s run defense is, the Bucs will have only one option to move the ball in the RZ, and that’s passes to Kellen Winslow and the rookie Mike Williams. The Falcons have given up 14 RZ TDs, and 13 of them have been through the air.
Williams notched 89 yards and a TD in the Bucs' first meeting with the Falcons.
Twelve different WRs have scored at least 10.8 fantasy points against Atlanta, including three Bengals players in one game alone. Atlanta has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
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Start Randy Moss—Home Vs. Jacksonville
14 of 21
This applies only if Kerry Collins plays, for since joining the Titans, Randy Moss has totaled 49 yards receiving largely catching passes from Rusty “Trombone” Smith and Vince “Suck Wad” Young.
Moss should break out this week against a Jaguars defense that is allowing the fourth most points to fantasy WRs this year. WR1s have averaged 14.9 fantasy points against the Jaguar defense, and five different WRs have scored at least 19.6 fantasy points against them.
If Collins plays, Moss will have a field day, but if the Trombone plays, move Moss from the start ‘em to the sit ‘em list. Period.com.
Start Mario Manningham—Home Vs. Washington
15 of 21
Mario Manningham was only targeted four times last week, but that was out of nine targets to G-men WRs, and he did manage to score 12.1 fantasy points despite the low targets.
He should see his targets at least double this week, as the Redskins pass defense is atrocious. Check it: In two different games this season three receivers in the same game scored at least 11.3 fantasy points against them. In 11 games this year, seven WRs had their fantasy high against Washington.
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Start Rob Gronkowski—Home Vs. NY Jets
16 of 21
With Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis bottling up the WRs, expect a big game from this Patriots TE. Ever since Moss left Boston, the Pats have been utilizing their TEs to the tune of 13.2 fantasy PPG; the only problem is picking the right one.
My money is on Rob Gronkowski over Aaron Hernandez given that over the last three games, Gronkowski had 11 targets, 11 receptions, 162 yards and three TDs compared to Hernandez’s four targets, two catches, 26 yards and one TD.
Start Visanthe Shiancoe—Home Vs. Buffalo
17 of 21
The Bills have allowed six RZ TDs on only 13 targets on the season. Last year, including the postseason, all 12 of Shiancoe’s TDs were in the RZ.
The Bills have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing TEs.
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Sit Brian Westbrook—@ Green Bay
18 of 21
Everyone is all giddy about Brian Westbrook after his 19.6-point fantasy outing against Arizona, but everyone conveniently forgets that AZ is allowing the most RB fantasy PPG in 2010.
Conversely, only three RBs all season have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Packers (Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and Michael Turner). Maybe you should wait one more week to plug him in.
He does, though, have a chance to get garbage receiving yards if this game becomes a blowout.
Sit LeGarrette Blount—Home Vs. Atlanta
19 of 21
The Falcons have allowed only two rushing TDs this season. The Falcons were able to hold Peyton Hillis and LeSean McCoy to a combined 31 carries for 92 yards for a 2.97 YPC average. On the season both backs are averaging over 4.5 yards per carry.
Blount was more or less goosed in his first meeting with the Dirty Birds (46 yards on 13 carries). Here’s a mismatch for ya...the Falcons have not allowed a RB to score in the red zone this season, while all of Blount’s TDs have come inside the RZ. Yuck.
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Sit Deion Branch and Wes Welker—Home Vs. NY Jets
20 of 21
Revis has faced four WRs ranked in the top six in fantasy points (Brandon Lloyd, Calvin Johnson, Terrell Owens and Greg Jennings) over the last six games; he also faced Andre Johnson, who ranks 11th at the position. Those five WRs combined to score 21.7 fantasy points for a 4.34 fantasy PPG average.
Welker will be gobbled up by the Jet LB corps. Leave them both on the shelf.
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Sit Michael Crabtree—@ Green Bay
21 of 21
He is only averaging 4.6 targets over his last six games, and few teams are better at containing opposing WR1 than Green Bay. Only one WR1 (Calvin Johnson) scored over 13 points against the Packers this season.
They have been especially effective over their last four games, holding Braylon Edwards, Percy Harvin, Roddy White and Miles Austin to a combined 109 yards and no TDs.
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