NFL Picks Week 13: Where Are the Upsets Coming from This Week?

With some fantastic matchups this week, we could be watching some great games this weekend.

We have the rematch of the "No Handshake" game in Kansas City with the Chiefs taking on the Broncos.

Can San Diego continue their streak against the Raiders?

Can the Cowboys take advantage of a down Colts team?

Division leads are up for grabs in Tampa Bay, Baltimore and New England with the Bucs hosting the Falcons, the Ravens hosting the Steelers and the Patriots hosting the Jets.

16. Jacksonville at Tennessee

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 18: Running back Chris Johnson #28 of the Tennessee Titans is tackled by defensive back Rashean Mathis #27 of the Jacksonville Jaguars during the game at EverBank Field on October 18, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by J

Line: Even

Likelihood of Upset: N/A

Player Who Would Key The Upset: Since there is no favorite in this one, the key to this game is Kerry Collins. Last week we saw just how bad the Titans are with Rusty Smith as their starting quarterback. This week the Titans are hoping for Collins to come back and start for the Titans. If he is back, then I like their chances in this one. If the Titans win this one, look for people to talk about them as a playoff sleeper.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 20

15. New Orleans at Cincinnati

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ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 25: Chris Ivory #29 of the New Orleans Saints celebrates scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys at Cowboys Stadium on November 25, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Line: New Orleans by 7

Likelihood of Upset: Slim

Player Who Would Key The Upset: The Bengals have struggled to match their magical run last year. A big reason for that has been the regression of quarterback Carson Palmer. Many have been calling for the benching of the former Heisman winner.

For the Bengals to beat the reigning Super Bowl champions, Palmer needs to play competently. Last season the Bengals relied on their running game and defense. If Palmer doesn't turn the ball over or put the Bengals in bad situations, they have a chance because they are playing at home.

Prediction: New Orleans 35, Cincinnati 17

14. St. Louis at Arizona

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ST. LOUIS - SEPTEMBER 12: Ron Bartell #24 of the St. Louis Rams attempts to pick off a pass intended for Larry Fitzgerald #11 of the Arizona Cardinalsduring the NFL season opener at the Edward Jones Dome on September 12, 2010 in St. Louis, Missouri. The

Line: St. Louis by 4

Likelihood of Upset: Slim

Player Who Would Key The Upset: When the Cardinals beat the Rams earlier this season, it was Sam Bradford's first NFL start and he still almost won the game for St. Louis and Derek Anderson looked as good as he has all season.

Since then, Bradford has had one of the best Rookie years for a quarterback in league history and Anderson has been benched a few times and gave us a great press conference moment on Monday night.

Anderson needs to turn back the clock to Sept. 12 for the Cardinals to pull this one out on the road after getting slaughtered by the 49ers on Monday night.

Prediction: St. Louis 28, Arizona 17

13. San Fransisco at Green Bay

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ATLANTA - NOVEMBER 28: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers rushes upfield away from Corey Peters #91 of the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on November 28, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Line: Green Bay by 10

Likelihood of Upset: Slim

Player Who Would Key The Upset: On Monday night, Frank Gore went out with a broken hip. Now if I had heard that a 49ers running back broke his hip, I would have assumed it was Brian Westbrook and I would have assumed he fell over in his retirement home.

Instead, Westbrook had a vintage Westbrook game. For the 49ers to get a sniff in this one, Westbrook needs to carry the load against a good Packers defense.

Prediction: Green Bay 35, San Francisco 10

12. Carolina at Seattle

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SEATTLE, WA - NOVEMBER 28: Running back Marshawn Lynch #24 of the Seattle Seahawks rushes against the Kansas City Chiefs at Qwest Field on November 28, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Line: Seattle by 6

Likelihood of Upset: Possible, but unlikely

Player Who Would Key The Upset: Mike Goodson has been a great revelation for a bad Panthers team. If the Panthers can run the ball with Goodson and Jonathan Stewart, control the clock, and take the Seattle crowd out of the game they have a chance.

However, the Seahawks are great at home and the Panthers are the worst team in the league.

Prediction: Seattle 20, Carolina 10

11. Washington at NY Giants

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LANDOVER, MD - DECEMBER 21: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants in action against the Washington Redskins during their game on December 21, 2009 at Fedex Field in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Line: New York by 7

Likelihood of Upset: Possible, but unlikely

Player Who Would Key The Upset: While this is a division game and anything can happen, I think the Giants are going to beat up on a bad Redskins team. However, the Redskins have looked good this season when they have been able to run the ball.

So for the 'Skins to win this one they will need Keiland Williams to carry the load and take pressure off Donovan McNabb who will be getting a lot of heat from the Giants defensive line.

Prediction: NY Giants 28, Washington 17

10. Houston at Philadelphia

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LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 15: Michael Vick #7 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates with team mate Mike McGlynn #77 after throwing his teams first touchdown against the Washington Redskins on November 15, 2010 at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Photo b

Line: Philadelphia by 9

Likelihood of Upset: Possible, but unlikely

Player Who Would Key The Upset: Houston has looked fantastic at times this season and atrocious at other times. For them to beat a good Eagles team they need to get pressure on Michael Vick, as the Bears did on Sunday.

The Texas do have one of the best pass rushers in the NFL in Mario Williams. If Williams can play like Julius Peppers did, they could force Vick into some bad decisions.  

Prediction: Philadelphia 35, Houston 21

9. Pittsburgh at Baltimore

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BALTIMORE, MD - NOVEMBER 28: Ray Rice #27 of the Baltimore Ravens runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ravens defeated the Buccaneers 17-10. (Photo by Larry French/Getty Image

Line: Baltimore by 3

Likelihood of Upset: Good

Player Who Would Key The Upset: In a battle of AFC North rivals, anything is possible in this one. In recent history, this match up has been a can't miss. Hard hits and great defense highlight this one every time.

For the Steelers to win, Rashard Mendenhall needs to find room running the ball. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up and he can't afford to force the ball anywhere against this optimistic defense. If Mendenhall has a good game, the Steelers win.

Prediction: Baltimore 21, Pittsburgh 20

8. Oakland at San Diego

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OAKLAND, CA - OCTOBER 10: Stanford Routt #26 of the Oakland Raiders breaks up a pass intended for Buster Davis #84 of the San Diego Chargers late in the fourth quarter at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on October 10, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo

Line: San Diego by 13

Likelihood of Upset: Good

Player Who Would Key The Upset: San Diego is on its annual role. Philip Rivers is an MVP candidate. The San Diego defense is playing great. But Oakland has broken the streak of losses to the Chargers and is actually undefeated in the AFC West.

For the Raiders to continue their streak in the division, Darren McFadden needs to shoulder the load. The Chargers pass defense is best in the league and showed against Indianapolis it is not something to be tested. If Oakland can run the ball, control the clock and keep Rivers off the field, they have a chance.

Prediction: San Diego 28, Oakland 13

7. Buffalo at Minnesota

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LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 28: Brett Favre #4 of the Minnesota Vikings is congratulated by teammates after running for a key first down in the fourth quarter FedExField November 28, 2010 in Landover, Maryland. The Vikings won the game 17-13. (Photo by Win

Line: Minnesota by 6

Likelihood of Upset: Good

Player Who Would Key The Upset: The Buffalo Bills are one of the best bad teams in NFL history. At 2-9 the Bills have been on a roll lately. They came within a Stevie Johnson drop in the end zone of pulling an upset over the Steelers.

This week they take on a Minnesota team that has seemingly regrouped after the firing of Brad Childress.

For Buffalo to win their third in their last four games, Stevie Johnson needs to shake off the game against Pittsburgh. He had somewhere around five dropped passes but none bigger than the one in overtime. If Johnson has a big game, the Bills could give Leslie Frazier his first loss as a head coach.

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Buffalo 17

6. Denver at Kansas City

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DENVER - NOVEMBER 14: Head coach Todd Haley of the Kansas City Chiefs has some unwelcome words with head coach Josh McDaniels of the Denver Broncos as he refuses to shake his hand after the Broncos 49-29 win at INVESCO Field at Mile High on November 14,

Line: Kansas City by 9

Likelihood of Upset: Good

Player Who Would Key The Upset: This one takes on an interesting twist after the last Kansas City against Denver game ended with a finger point instead of a hand shake.

Throw in the fact that Denver is in the middle of Spy Gate 2 and it looks like Denver could lose this one big. However, in their last matchup the Broncos really put it on the Chiefs, winning 49-29.

For Denver to win this one in Arrowhead, Kyle Orton needs to be the efficient quarterback that he had been earlier this season. If he can play a perfect "game manager" game, the Broncos could pull the upset.

Prediction: Kansas City 28, Denver 20

5. NY Jets at New England

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 19: Mark Sanchez #6, Nick Mangold #74, and Matt Slauson #68 of the New York Jets prepare for the snap against the New England Patriots during their game on September 19, 2010 at the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Ruther

Line: New England by 4

Likelihood of Upset: Great

Player Who Would Key The Upset: The Jets and Patriots are two of the three nine-win teams in the NFL and they happen to be bitter rivals in the same division.

For the Jets to win this one in New England, Mark Sanchez needs to take advantage of a young Patriots defense. Let's face it Tom Brady is a great quarterback and the Patriots are going to score points against anybody, even the Jets, but if Sanchez can match Brady's output, the Jets really have a great chance in this one.

Prediction: NY Jets 35, New England 34

4. Cleveland at Miami

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CLEVELAND - NOVEMBER 28: Running back Peyton Hillis #40 of the Cleveland Browns scores a touchdown in front of safety Sherrod Martin #23 of the Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Matt Sulliva

Line: Miami by 5

Likelihood of Upset: Great

Player Who Would Key The Upset: Good news Browns fans, Colt McCoy is expected to come back this week meaning hopefully no more Jake Delhomme.

If McCoy is indeed back, I think the Browns are a lock to beat Miami. The Browns are a good team that just needed half a season to find out who they needed in the games to give them the best chance to win.

Prediction: Cleveland 28, Miami 24

3. Dallas at Indianapolis

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ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 21: Quarterback Jon Kitna #3 of the Dallas Cowboys looks for an open receiver against the Detroit Lions at Cowboys Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys beat the Lions 35-19. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Get

Line: Indianapolis by 6

Likelihood of Upset: Great

Player Who Would Key The Upset: Indianapolis is reeling after losing two in a row and dropping to 6-5 on the season. Meanwhile, Dallas seems to be making steps forward after winning two in a row, they played tough with the Saints on Thanksgiving.

For them to bring the Colts third straight loss, the Cowboys running game needs to run wild against a bad Indy run defense.

Quick side-note: Anyone else suspicious that Jason Garrett is calling good plays for the Cowboys now that he is the head coach?

Prediction: Dallas 28, Indianapolis 21

2. Chicago at Detroit

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CHICAGO - SEPTEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Detroit Lions drops back to pass as Stephen Peterman #66 prepares to block Matt Toeaina #75 of the Chicago Bears during the NFL season opening game at Soldier Field on September 12, 2010 in Chicago, Illin

Line: Chicago by 4

Likelihood of Upset: Great

Player Who Would Key The Upset: Chicago must be feeling pretty good about themselves. They just beat Philadelphia and are now in first place in the NFC North.

All good reasons to overlook the lowly Lions.

Calvin Johnson has secretly been having a great year for Detroit and the Bears don't have anyone who can cover him.

If he has a big game, no matter who is throwing him the ball, they could win this one at home against the Bears.

Prediction: Detroit 17, Chicago 14

1. Atlanta at Tampa Bay

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ATLANTA - NOVEMBER 07: Quarterback Josh Freeman #5 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on November 7, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Line: Atlanta by 3

Likelihood of Upset: Certainty

Player Who Would Key The Upset: The Falcons, like the Bears, have been getting some real publicity this week after a big win last week.

However, Tampa Bay has been secretly having a great season and is thick in the NFC playoff picture.

Josh Freeman has been phenomenal this season and even had a chance against Baltimore to add to his fourth-quarter comebacks last week. This week, at Tampa Bay, I think Freeman has another great game and picks up their eighth win of the season.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Atlanta 23