Overrated? Underrated? Odds on College Football's National Championship

True Vegas Odds
August 26, 2008

Know more than the next guy: Sports facts backed by math!

This is the first in a weekly column in which I will break down and explain the meaning of actual odds from Las Vegas. Every guy in a bar has opinions; Vegas, though, is willing to back its opinion with millions of dollars—and that's an opinion worth taking seriously!

Misconceptions are widespread about the true meaning of sports betting odds. Our goal will be to cut through the clutter, and get to the truth.

College football starts this week, so our first look will be at the odds to win the 2009 National Championship.

To start, here are the Top 10 teams with the best chance to win it all, according to Vegas:

1. USC Trojans: 12.5%
2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 11.5%
3. Georgia Bulldogs: 9.5%
4. Florida Gators: 9%
5. Oklahoma Sooners: 8%
6. Missouri Tigers: 3.5%
7. West Virginia Mountaineers: 3.5%
8. LSU Tigers: 2.5%
9. Texas Longhorns: 2.5%
10. Clemson Tigers: 2.5%

Coin-Flip Debate of the Week:

Who has a better chance to win it all: These top five teams (USC, Ohio St., Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma) or every other team in the nation? Vegas says the odds are almost exactly even (50.5 percent against 49.5 percent)! Who would you take?

Overrated Team:

Kansas, ranked No. 13 in the USA Today poll, but only given the 25th best chance to win it all (less than 1 percent chance).

Underrated Team:

Florida State, unranked in the USA Today poll, yet given the 17th best chance to win it all by Vegas.

Should Cinderella Buy a Dress?

For those hoping against hope for your underdog team to win it all, it's interesting to note that Vegas says only 19 teams have better than a 100-to-1 shot to be National Champions.

Wins, losses, and injuries will change the NCAA Football odds each week. I'll be checking in all season with the most interesting adjustments. Next week, True Vegas Odds will breakdown Super Bowl XLIII.

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