As A Matter Of Fact: College Football Picks

-       In this weekly piece, I will lay out and preview every college football game between two Football Bowl Subdivision (or I-A) teams with the Thursday games coming out Tuesday and Saturday slate presented on Thursday.

-       Note: Lines used are from thegreek.com and the poll used is the Associated Press Top 25 rankings. Without further ado…..

 

Thursday August 28

 

Texas El Paso (0-0) at Buffalo (0-0)

Time: 6 p.m.

Line: Buffalo by 3

 

Analysis: It would behoove Bulls head coach Turner Gill to take the ball if Buffalo wins the coin toss. A quick touchdown would be considered a big confidence builder and energy lifter against a defense with new coaches, with a new scheme and ranked last in the nation in 2007 in passing defense and total defense. The Miners defense has to get three-and-outs and that’s a tall order against one of the most experienced and proficient passing game in the Mid American Conference. The front eight of UTEP’s 3-5-3 defensive formation that includes four seniors and four returning starters must either give their high powered offense the ball either with three-and-outs or turnovers. The running game by committee (tailbacks Terrell Jackson, Donald Buckram and Jason Williams) is certainly the most crucial x-factor for the Miners offensive success because they must win the time of possession battle. The only reason the Bulls would be likely to lay an egg in a home opener is the lack of experience at linebacker that includes two true freshmen. Turner Gill wants a chance at a top tier program and he has the talent to finally put himself in the conversation for future openings. Until UTEP proves it can stop people on defense, they are going to continue to ruin a highly talented offense scheme.

 

Straight Up: Buffalo

 

Against Spread: Buffalo

 

Vanderbilt (0-0) at Miami (Ohio) (0-0)

Time: 6:30 p.m.

TV: ESPNU

Line: Miami (OH) by 4

 

Analysis: This line makes absolutely no sense because if Vanderbilt didn’t play in the Southeastern Conference, they’d be a double-digit underdog. News to Vegas and college football fans, the Commodores are bad. The number for this team is zero. That’s the number of returning starters on the offensive line, the number of touchdowns scored in the Commodores spring game and the number of road games Vanderbilt will win. This game is a showcase for Miami (OH)’s offense led by junior quarterback Daniel Raudabaugh. The goal for offensive coordinator Shane Montgomery is to scare the Michigan coaching staff when they pop this tape in to prepare for its Week 2 contest. NOTE: Wolverines head coach Rich Rodriguez might have more to worry about after Week 1, find out on Thursday. Trust me, for a school with 6+ wins in four of its last five seasons this win over a BCS conference opponent won’t inspire tearing down goal posts.

 

Straight Up: Miami (OH)

 

Against Spread: Miami (OH)

 

North Carolina State (0-0) at. South Carolina (0-0)

Time: 7 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Line: South Carolina by 13

 

Analysis: God bless the Worldwide Leader in Sports for putting this game as the feature contest Thursday night. Multiple storylines and two premier head coaches trying to quickly put these programs back into contention for major bowl games. Here’s what we know: both teams will play at least two quarterbacks each, which means neither are happy with its lack of offensive productivity. If there’s one coach that can outcoach Spurrier in own backyard it might be the Wolfpack’s Tom O’Brien. Depth on both sides of the ball are certainly a certain for N.C. State so it’s illogical to bet against a quality SEC-team at home but South Carolina certainly is not 13 points better than the Wolfpack, not even close.

 

Straight Up: South Carolina

 

Against Spread: North Carolina State

 

No. 22 Wake Forest (0-0) at Baylor (0-0)

Time: 7 p.m.

TV: FSN

Line: Wake Forest by 11.5

 

Analysis: This game is so fascinating as both of these programs were wasting away as recently as 3-4 years ago but now the visiting program is exactly where the home team desperately wants to be. The question for Wake Forest is can this team prove that they can not only win these games but they must win big. I feel for new Baylor head coach Art Briles because his debut in Waco could be ugly real quick. Briles had a starting quarterback with experience in junior Blake Symanski but Miami transfer and high school All-American Kirby Freeman will take snaps in this game and be featured prominently.

 

Straight Up: Wake Forest

 

Against Spread: Wake Forest

 

Oregon State (0-0) at Stanford (0-0)

Time: 8 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

Line: Oregon State by 3

 

Analysis: UPSET ALERT! Stanford returns 20 starters from a 2007 team that went from one to four victories under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh has these kids believing they can get to a bowl game this season and that’s a mountain of a goal for a program that hasn’t gotten there since 2001. It’s a revenge thing on the Stanford campus as its first three 2008 opponents (Oregon State, Arizona State and TCU) gave them losses. Oregon State must prove that it’s defensive consistency year in and year out has to do with scheme because they only have three returning starters to work with in 2008.

 

Straight Up: Stanford

 

Against Spread: Stanford

 

Troy (0-0) at Middle Tennessee State (0-0)

Time 8:30 p.m.

Line: Troy by 6.5

 

Analysis: This is how solid the Trojans program is built. They’ve lost the 11^th overall pick in the draft (Leodis McKelvin), its most productive quarterback in recent history (Omar Haugabrook) and it’s still a major contender for a conference championship. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the subject is Troy not Southern Cal. In the only conference game on the Thursday plate, Troy will look to start its journey (literally). The Trojans play of its first nine games on the road. In order to prove injuries were a legit excuse for MTSU finishing 5-7 last year, it must knock off a proven Sun Belt contender in its own stadium. Unfortunately from a depth standpoint it doesn’t appear to be 2008 that the Blue Raiders can make that jump.

 

Straight Up: Troy

 

Against Spread: Troy