NFL Week 7 Picks: 5 Games Closer Than The Experts Think

Teams like the San Diego Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, and Dallas Cowboys all seem to make getting upset a habit each Sunday.

This week in the NFL, underachieving teams are being overlooked and are primed to knock off an unsuspecting team.

Which favorite will be upset this week?

Here are five football games this weekend that will finish much closer than the experts believe.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

DENVER - DECEMBER 20: Johnnie Lee Higgins #15 of the Oakland Raiders stiff arms Tony Carter #25 of the Denver Broncos in the first half at Invesco Field at Mile High on December 20, 2009 in Denver, Colorado. The Raiders defeated the Broncos 20-19. (Phot

Heavy Favorite: Denver Broncos

Overlooked Match-up: The Raiders defense matches up great with the Broncos offense.

Nnamdi Asomugha and the Raiders secondary only let up 196.8 yards a game through the air which is good for eighth in the league.  Their weakness of stopping the run won't be taken advantage of by the Broncos worst rushing attack in the league and their 67.3 yards per game.

Underdog's Key: The Raiders definitely have the talent to win this football game.  Their main goal must be to keep the penalties low and the turnovers lower.

Prediction: 24-21 Oakland

The Raiders keep the ball on the ground and have success doing so winning a close one in Denver.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

GLENDALE, AZ - NOVEMBER 15: Justin Forsett #20 of the Seattle Seahawks carries the ball while being pursued by Antrel Rolle #21 of the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium on November 15, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Get

Heavy Favorite: Seattle Seahawks 

Overlooked Match-up: The poor Seahawks offense isn't strong enough to take advantage of a weak Cardinals defense.  Each team ranks near the bottom of the league through the air and on the ground.

Underdog's Key: The Cardinals must create turnovers, and with a combination of a play making secondary and a quarterback who has had trouble taking care of the ball, the perfect storm has been born in Seattle.

Matt Hasselbeck has turned the ball over seven times his season.  Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Adrian Wilson, and Kerry Rhodes will have a chance to get their hands on the football this Sunday.

Prediction: 21-17 Seattle

Arizona stays in the whole game, but Seattle edges them out in the fourth.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Doug Benc/Getty Images

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 08: Running back Rashad Jennings #23 of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks for room to run on his first quarter touchdown run against the Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium on November 8, 2009 in Jacksonville, Fl

Heavy Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs 

Overlooked Match-up: The Jaguars biggest defensive weakness, their secondary, matches up perfectly with the Chiefs weakness of throwing the football.

They've been dominated all year with the 28th rated pass defense in the league surrendering a whopping 263.7 yards a game, but the Chiefs may not have the aerial attack to take advantage only throwing for 164.2 yards a game: 27th in the NFL.

Underdog's Key: David Garrard hasn't practiced yet this week.  If he doesn't play it will be much harder for the Jaguars to pull off the upset.

If Garrard is on, the Jaguars just don't lose.  In their three wins this season Garrard posted quarterback ratings of 138.9, 127.7, and 122.5.

Prediction: 24-20 Kansas City

Jacksonville gets ahead quickly, but after Kansas City regains the lead, their ground game milks the clock for the victory.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

ATLANTA - AUGUST 27: Running back Rudi Johnson #32 of the Cincinnati Bengals during the preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons on August 27, 2007 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia. The Falcons beat the Bengals 24-19. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/

Heavy Favorite: Atlanta Falcons 

Overlooked Match-up: The T.Ocho Show and the Bengals passing game puts up 248 yards a game through the air which is good for seventh best in the league.

The Falcons secondary lets up 239.5 passing yards a game which is good for seventh worst.  They may also be without their best cornerback Dunta Robinson because of a head injury.

Underdog's Key: Carson Palmer has turned the ball over eight times in 2010.  The Falcons have capitalized on turnovers all season.  Palmer must limit his turnovers for the Bengals to be able to win this one on the road.

Prediction: 17-14 Cincinnati

Cincinnati's defense steps up to the challenge while their offense makes just enough plays to pull out the win.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins

Doug Benc/Getty Images

MIAMI - JANUARY 03: Running back Rashard Mendenhall #34 of the Pittsburgh Steelers is brought down by linebacker Akin Ayodele #51 of the Miami Dolphins at Land Shark Stadium on January 3, 2010 in Miami, Florida. The Steelers defeated the Dolphins 30-24.

Heavy Favorite: Pittsburgh Steelers

Overlooked Match-up: The Steelers have one of the top defenses in the league, but believe it or not, they rank 24th in the league in pass defense surrendering 233 yards a game.

The Dolphins have the passing game to exploit the Steelers weakness.  Led by the fourth highest pass catcher Brandon Marshall and his 37 grabs, the 13th ranked Dolphins throw for 232.2 yards a game.

Underdog's Key: The Steelers run defense is the most dominating in the league.  The Dolphins obviously lean on an entirely different type of rushing attack than the rest of the NFL.  If their wildcat package can cause problems for the Steelers defense—the Dolphins will have a great chance to pull the upset.

Prediction: 21-20 Dolphins

Pittsburgh can't stop a late Miami surge as Brandon Marshall catches the go-ahead touchdown with time expiring as Miami defends their home turf.

David Daniels is a Correspondent and Writing Intern at Bleacher Report and a Syndicated Writer.  Follow him at One Yard Short.com or on Twitter