Bold Picks for NFL Week 7: Favre and Vikings Over Packers
This week for my NFL picks against the spread I am going to list them in order from weakest play to best bet. Before I get into the picks for week seven here is a quick overview of last week’s results.
Week Six was another example of the good, the bad, and the ugly.
The Good: The title story for last week’s picks focused on the Patriots getting revenge over the Ravens. The Patriots were down by 10 in the fourth quarter to one of the best defensive teams in football, but still found a way to get me in the win column and cover the small number.
The Bad: The Broncos plus the 3.5 looked like a lock as the game against the jets was coming to a close. The Broncos outplayed the Jets for seemingly the entire game, but on a fourth down hail Mary quarterback Mark Sanchez through up a miracle and was rewarded with a pass interference call. The Jets would score a touchdown on the next play and cover the 3.5, and give me the toughest loss on the week.
The Ugly: Taking Tampa Bay plus the points was ugly as the Saints ran them over from start to finish.
In week is my record was 6-7-1 against the spread (ATS) bringing my overall record to 42-45-1 on the season.
In my continuing quest to get over .500 on the year here are the NFL picks against the spread for every game in week seven.
(Bye: Detroit, Indianapolis, NY Jets, Houston)
Buffalo at Baltimore
1 of 14
1:00 PM CBS
M&T Bank Stadium
The Baltimore Ravens will host the Buffalo Bills who are arguably the worst team in football. Because of this the latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Ravens as a 13 point favorite.
I hate this game. The Ravens are obviously the better team and coming off a loss to the Patriots they should be focused and ready to go in this meeting. The problem is the line. While I think it is right on with the number, it’s easy for the Bills to come in and get the backdoor cover.
The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record and this game is a pass to me, but since I pick on every game, I will take the points.
Bills +13
Jacksonville at Kansas City
2 of 14
1:00 PM CBS
Arrowhead Stadium
The wounded Jacksonville Jaguars wander into Kansas City on a short week to face the Chiefs. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Chiefs as ten point favorites at home.
The Jags were flat out embarrassed at home on Monday Night football (me too, I took them) and they lost quarterback David Garrard as well as his backup Trent Edwards, to injury during the game. With injuries hampering starter David Garrard and backup Trent Edwards, the Jaguars signed free-agent quarterback Patrick Ramsey on Wednesday, one day after re-signing veteran Todd Bouman. Even if I wanted to back the Jags I can’t.
The Jags are 2-11 ATS off a division game and 1-6 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six against the AFC. It’s one of my least favorite games of the week, but I will drop the double digits.
Chiefs -10
Cleveland at New Orleans
3 of 14
1:00 PM CBS
Superdome
The Cleveland Browns will travel to the Big Easy to battle the defending super bowl champion New Orleans Saints. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Saints as 13 point home favorites in the dome.
The Saints righted the ship in an impressive win last week over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Cleveland Browns were off a blowout loss to the Steelers and many of their key players were hurt.
Rookie quarterback Colt McCoy will get his second start of the season against the Saints. He will not have an easy time in his first road challenge and the injured players will be too much to overcome. The Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss against the spread.
The Saints begin to gain momentum and get another easy victory at home against the Browns.
Saints -13
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San Francisco at Carolina
4 of 14
1:00 PM FOX
Bank of America Stadium
The San Francisco 49ers will try to win their second game of the season when they face the win less Carolina Panthers. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the 49ersas a 2.5 point favorite on the road.
The 49ers finally won a game and now have to see if they can string some wins together when they face off against the Panthers.
The Panthers seem like they are already playing out the string and using this time to develop young rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen. Clausen is performing just fine but the offensive line has had trouble opening lanes for running backs to make the lay action successful.
The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and this is the type of game that the Niners must win if they want a shot at the playoffs. Niners win and cover.
49ers -2.5
Cincinnati at Atlanta
5 of 14
1:00 PM CBS
Georgia Dome
The Cincinnati Bengals head to Georgia in week seven for a game against the Atlanta Falcons. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Falcons as a 3.5 point favorite at home.
The Bengals come into this game off a bye and the whispers about their slow start is turning into yells as Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat as head coach. The Bengals are loaded with talent and now have to try and beat the Atlanta Falcons on their home turf.
The Falcons were exposed on the road against Philadelphia and limp back home to take on the Bengals. If focused (that is a big if) the Bengals have the personnel to match up against the Falcons.
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. This is a good spot for the Bengals coming off a bye week and I will take the points.
Bengals +3.5
Okay Falcon fans whenever I pick against your team I get flooded with emails and comments from fans, don’t let me down.
Philadelphia at Tennessee
6 of 14
1:00 PM FOX
LP Field
The high flying Eagles travel to take on the Tennessee Titans in one of the better games of the weekend. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Titans as three point favorites at home.
The Eagles have played well regardless of what quarterback has gotten the nod to start the game and this week it looks like Kevin Kolb will get the call. In Tennessee Vince Young suffered a sprained knee but head coach Jeff Fisher said there was a "pretty good chance" he would play this week.
The Eagles are just 22nd in the league against the run and the Titans will take full advantage of that with one of the better offensive line sin football.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and the Titans are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Although it is a short week, the Titans will win and cover the small number.
Titans -3
St. Louis at Tampa Bay
7 of 14
1:00 PM FOX
Raymond James Stadium
The resurgent Rams battle the Buccaneers in a battle of two up and coming teams in the NFL. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Buccaneers as a three point favorite at home.
This game is hard to figure out because both teams are hard to figure out. The Rams have already passed expectations with three wins and are fresh off an upset win against the Chargers.
The Bucs started off as one of the undefeated teams in the early part of the season and then came out flat against the division rival Saints at home. Now they are small favorites at home against the Rams.
This line is a mistake and the Rams are the better team, and I believe they are much better. They were blown out in Detroit, but they matchup better in this game and quarterback Sam Bradford is a lock for the rookie of the year.
The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS overall. The Buccaneers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Rams win outright and continue their impressive start to the season.
Rams +3
Washington at Chicago
8 of 14
1:00 PM FOX
Soldier Field
The surprising Washington Redskins head to the Windy City to take on the Chicago bears in week seven. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Bears as a three point favorite at home.
The Redskins are a serious contender in the NFC East behind the leadership of Donovan McNabb, but they have to prove they can win on the road. The Bears had a great start to the season, but lately they have stuttered and the problems seem to stem from the lack of pass protection.
This is chance for the Bears to straighten things out when they face off against the Skins. The Skins are not great at rushing the quarterback and still last in the league in defense.
The Skins are 1-6-6 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and this is the same team that lost on the road to the Rams. Bears win in a blowout.
Bears -3
Arizona at Seattle
9 of 14
4:05 PM FOX
Qwest Field
Seattle and Arizona do battle in a divisional battle to see who will gain control to the top spot in the NFC West. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Seahawks as 5.5 point favorites at home.
The Cardinals are off a bye week after upsetting the New Orleans Saints with undrafted rookie Max Hall at quarterback.
The Seahawks are off a huge upset win against the Bears on the road. They come home with momentum and one of the best home field advantages in football. Marshawn Lynch helped the Seahawks ground game and the Seattle team is starting to believe in Pete Carroll.
The Seahawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite and 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and the Seahawks win this game by double digits.
Seattle -5.5
Minnesota at Green Bay
10 of 14
8:20 PM NBC
Lambeau Field
The Sunday night game of the week is a good one as Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings travel to Lambeau field to take on the Green bay Packers. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Packers as 2.5 point home favorites.
On any given day I would take the Packers to get revenge after Favre took it to him last year, but the Packers are just too banged up right now. They seem to be hurt at seemingly every position especially the secondary. The underdog is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 meetings and the road team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0and the Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North. I really believe that this is Favre’s last year, so winning his last game in Green Bay will be very important to him. Vikings win a close one.
Vikings +2.5
New England at San Diego
11 of 14
4:15 PM CBS
Qualcomm Stadium
Quick, can you name the NFL team that currently leads the NFL in total offense AND total defense? I bet the Chargers would not have been your first guess. The San Diego Chargers host the New England Patriots this week. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Chargers as 2.5 point home favorites heading into this contest.
The Chargers are embarrassed after losing an awful game to the St. Louis Rams on the road and have little time to recover before facing off against the Patriots. The Patriots are fresh off a come from behind win against the Baltimore Ravens.
Team soften struggle after playing the Ravens since they play such a physical game and the Patriots will have the same hangover effect.
The Chargers are 21-10-3 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss and 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS against a team with a losing record and the stumble on the west coast trip.
Philip Rivers should carve up the young secondary of the Patriots and get the Bolts back on the winning track.
Chargers -2.5
Pittsburgh at Miami
12 of 14
1:00 PM CBS
Sun Life Stadium
The Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to face off against the Miami Dolphins in an AFC tilt. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Steelers post as three point road favorites.
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be making his second start for the Steelers after returning from a suspension. Roethlisberger will try to duplicate his winning performance from last week.
The Dolphins are off a huge win against the Green Bay Packers. The Dolphin emerged victorious in overtime over an injury riddled Packers team.
The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Steelers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
The Dolphins get the outright win as the home underdog in this game.
Miami +3
Oakland at Denver
13 of 14
4:15 PM CBS
Invesco Field at Mile High
The Oakland Raiders and the Denver Broncos face off in an intense AFC West battle. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Broncos as seven point home favorites.
Both of these teams seem to be playing just well enough to lose. They seem to find anyway to give it up late in the game after playing their hearts out. Something has to give when they play one another.
The Broncos strength is the passing game as Kyle Orton is having a career year tossing the pigskin, but the Raiders do very well defending the pass as they rank eighth overall in the NFL. Unlike other teams, Oakland loves to play on the road in this series as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Denver.
The Broncos have a slew of trends going against them heading into this game. The Broncos are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 home games, 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 against the AFC West, and 7-19-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. This could end up being the biggest upset of the week as the Raiders could pull this one off.
Raiders +7
NY Giants at Dallas
14 of 14
8:30 PM
Cowboys Stadium
Monday Night Football this week has a battle between two NFC East rivals as they Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants. The latest NFL Odds posted for this game by BetOnline have the Cowboys as three point home favorites.
The Cowboys only have one win on the season and they are at the very bottom of the NFC East. The Giants occupy the top spot in a tie with the Eagles and this game is a must win for the Cowboys. The owner of the Cowboys, Jerry Jones has announced that head coach Wade Phillips will not be fired and that this team can still make the playoffs. If that is to happen they will have to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football.
For the Cowboys to beat the Giants they will have to scale back on the mistakes. It seems as though every loss is due to a key turnover over a penalty that could have been avoided. The Cowboys have posted great numbers this year as they are third in total offense and fourth in total defense but they will have to get tougher mentally if they want to win this game and advance to the playoffs.
The Giants are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0 and get a big divisional win in a prime time battle for the ages.
Cowboys -3
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com
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