TJR NFL Picks for Week 6 (Ravens Vs Pats, Falcons Vs Eagles, Etc.)

John: Welcome to week six of the NFL picks. Last week wasn't too pretty, as I went 7-7, while my buddy Pat Lamorte went 6-8.

It's the craziness of the NFL, though. You just never know who might win from week to week. There's no clear cut best team in the league, although you can make a case for the Jets, Steelers, Ravens and Falcons among others. I would say those are the top four.

After that? No idea. I'm still shocked that the Cowboys and Vikings are 1-3, to be honest. They were two of the top five favorites before the year. After this week, barring a rare tie, one of them will be 1-4 and likely on the outside looking in come playoff time. It should be an interesting week as always.

Pat: Well I’m happy to see Week 6 after a poor 6-8 record in Week 5, not that it gets any easier.  Remember fellas we do not call ourselves “experts”, we do this for fun, so don’t go betting the house and come blame us.  I do enjoy the banter in the comments though, especially the standard “You picked against the (insert commenter’s favorite team here)!  You’re an idiot!”  Those don’t get old! 

Quick wrestling note before I move on to picks and fantasy tidbits. I finally picked up the Jericho DVD and only finished the first disc so far, which is the documentary and special features.  And that is enough for me to recommend it. Really good stuff and of course the matches on the other discs speak for themselves anyway.  Twitter plug time: @RotoRant for fantasy, @plamorte for your personal dose of Pat.

Last week:

John 7-7

Pat 6-8

Season:

John 44-32 (.579)

Pat 44-32 (.579)

Byes: Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati

All game times are Eastern.

San Diego at St. Louis 1:00 PM 

Pat:  Nice call last week by JC on the Raiders upsetting the Chargers, but it won’t happen this week vs. his beloved Rams, even if it’s on the road.  Not sure how much Bradford can do through the air now without Mark Clayton who was such a nice surprise for them.  Also the Rams D gave up 44 points to the Lions last week, not a good sign. Chargers 84, Rams 20

Fantasy pick:  If you’re in a PPR league, grab Rams WR Danny Amendola.  Bradford looked his way a ton after Clayton got hurt last week, and he finished with 12 catches; there’s value in that!

John: My Rams had a nice run as a surprise team, but I think that came crashing to a halt when WR Mark Clayton tore his patella tendon and is done for the year. He was the chain mover on the team. He was on his way to a great season. With the other top WR Donnie Avery out you're looking at backups having to start. It won't be pretty. Steven Jackson is going to have a lot of long days, and this will be one of them. The Chargers shouldn't have much trouble passing because they can throw on anybody. Too much Rivers to Gates here. Chargers 34-14

Kansas City at Houston 1:00 PM 

Pat:   Chiefs aren’t undefeated anymore, but they almost shutout Peyton Manning last week. The D is impressive, and once again, the Texans are their inconsistent selves. Has there been a bigger disappointment than Matt Schaub?  Disregard that one game he went nuts, and he’s been pretty poor.  But back to the inconsistency, as soon you think they’re bad, they come back with a strong game.  I like Texans at home. Texans 20, Chiefs 14

Fantasy pick:  Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe.  He has been awful and dropped a sure TD last week that probably would have won the game for the Chiefs.  So why recommend him?  Texans pass D is awful, and Cassel still looks Bowe’s way a ton. He’s bound to make a play or two at some point.

John: I'm not sure what happened to Houston last week against the Giants. They looked awful. I know Andre Johnson is banged up, but other than that, why were they so bad? The Chiefs don't have too many weapons on offense yet they find ways to manufacture points. I'm tempted to go for the upset here. However, I like the Texans to win simply because they have more firepower to put points on the board. Texans 24-17

Baltimore at New England 1:00 PM 

Pat:   Patriots are coming off an interesting bye week, where they shed a beard in Randy Moss.   Sadly, Brady’s Beiber haircut remains.  Ravens won last week without having to throw much, so I’m curious to see which Joe Flacco shows up on Sunday.  But with the Pats D, I’m sure a dose of Ray Rice with some Boldin thrown in will do the job. Ravens 21, Patriots 20

Fantasy pick:  Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez.  I think he, not Wes Welker, benefits the most from the Moss trade.

John: Tough game. Baltimore plays ugly football. Last week they barely threw the ball, yet they dominated and won. Some weeks they can't run and only pass. They are a hard team to figure out.

The Pats are not the heavy passing team they were. Sure, they do throw a lot, but it's not the 2007 or even 2009 Pats here. They run more than you think. If this was a playoff game, I'd like to go with the Ravens because they're better.

In this case, though, I'll go Patriots because I think coach Belichick will have them ready after their bye week. I think it's the best game of the week too. Patriots 17-14

New Orleans at Tampa Bay 1:00 PM 

Pat:   It’s only week 6, but it seems so long ago the Saints were Super Bowl champs with a great offense.   Pierre Thomas has missed two games and possible a third, and really now you realize what a difference Reggie Bush makes, not so much in his production but the distraction he causes for defenses that allows other Saints to make plays. The Bucs capitalized last week on Carson Palmer’s mistakes and won a game the Bengals had no business losing.   Bucs are young and hungry, but this has to be the week the Saints bounce back, right? Saints 20, Bucs 17

Fantasy pick:  Bucs WR Mike Williams, in the year of Mike Williams', Tampa has the best one. He’s their best threat.

John: Tampa Bay! I believe. They are bigger underdogs than they should be because I guess people think the Saints still have some of that magic from last year. I don't. Their lack of a running game due to the absences of Thomas and Bush is alarming. I'm going Bucs. Remember last year when they ended New Orleans' undefeated year? They know they can beat this team. And they will. Bucs 23-20

Atlanta at Philadelphia 1:00 PM 

Pat:   I haven’t heard if it’ll be Vick or Kolb at QB this week for the Eagles.  Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense hasn’t been all that great, but their defense has done well.  I want to take the Falcons, and I did in a couple pick ‘ems, but for TJR, I’ll go Eagles, even if Kolb plays again I think the offense can score some points here. Eagles 23, Falcons 17

Fantasy pick:  Eagles TE Brent Celek; him and Kolb have great chemistry. If he starts, Celek is an excellent play at TE this week.

John: I picked the Falcons to win the NFC South this year. I'm going with them here. They are doing all the little things right. They're not turning the ball over much, they are making the big drives at the right time and they are staying healthy while they do it. I like the look of that team.

The Eagles? I'm not sure about that defense. It seems to be leaking all over the place. Falcons for the win. Falcons 24-20

Detroit at NY Giants 1:00 PM 

Pat:  Lions have one win under the belt, maybe John can remind us how it happened?  Giants as a whole are starting to find a groove and like them a lot this week at home. Giants 31, Lions 17

Fantasy pick:  Giants QB Eli Manning; him and Nicks have clicked, and he has plenty of targets to throw to in Smith, Boss and Manningham.

John: The Giants are one of those hot teams right now. The defensive line is dominating the line of scrimmage while Eli Manning is doing a great job of spreading the ball around. I don't like Shaun Hill's chances on the road. Giants 37-10

Seattle at Chicago 1:00 PM 

Pat:   The Bears won last week on the road with Todd Collins starting at QB.  TODD COLLINS.  What does that say to the Seahawks, who get to face the Bears at home and Jay Cutler quarterbacking?  That says you lose. Bears 23, Seahawks 13

Fantasy pick:  Bears TE Greg Olsen; he was shutout last week, but so was most the offense other than Forte.  Cutler is back and Olsen’s been a nice option for him so far.

John: It should be an ugly game. I'll go Bears, who are the worst team in the league with one win. They're not awful. It's just that they're not that good. Matt Forte should have a solid game here, though. Bears 21-10

Miami at Green Bay 1:00 PM 

Pat:   It’s always tough playing the Packers at home, but will injuries sway the game in the Dolphins favor?  If Rodgers sits, I do like Miami here.  There is no word on it yet, but I wouldn’t mess around with concussions on your franchise QB, so I’m assuming he sits. Dolphins 19, Packers 16

Fantasy pick: Kind of a sleeper here, I’ll go with ‘Fins RB Ricky Williams.  He has taken a back seat to Ronnie Brown and Brandon Marshall in the fantasy world, but I think Dolphins commit to the run more this week. Ricky will get touches and make plays.

John: It seems like Aaron Rodgers is going to play although he is banged up. It's not an easy defense to go against, so they could cause him problems. The issue with the Packers is their running game is subpar. Teams can deal with an offense if they know they are throwing all the time. Still, I'm unsure about the Dolphins offense. I think the Packers D will force them into some mistakes and put some points on the board to pull away. Packers 26-17

Cleveland at Pittsburgh 1:00 PM 

Pat:   For a genius rap line using Big Ben, check out Eminem’s “Almost Famous”. Hilarious.  Anyway, Big Ben returns this week, and the offense should get an immediate boost.  Meanwhile the Browns starts rookie Colt McCoy.  You see where this is going? Steelers 27, Browns 7

Fantasy pick:  Steelers WR Hines Ward; he should go back to his No. 1 WR type production with Ben back.

John: Rookie QB Colt McCoy starting for the Browns on the road in Pittsburgh? Uh oh that's not easy. I'll take the elite defense with a returning Pro Bowl QB Ben "hide your woman" Roethlisberger to dominate this game. Ugly. Steelers 34-6

NY Jets at Denver 4:05 PM 

Pat:   Does the Jets excellent run D matter if the Broncos have NO running game?  I’ll admit, Orton has been impressive, but throwing 50 times vs. a talented D like the Jets is bound to create turnovers. Jets 24, Broncos 19

Fantasy pick: Jets WR Santonio Holmes.  He was quiet last week but now has another week of practice and getting to know the offense; he should be a good play.

John: Hard for me to go against the Jets right now, although the Broncos are feisty at home. Defensively, the Jets are great as we know and offensively, they are not turning the ball over while moving it all over the field. Maybe the best team in football. They win again. Jets 21-10

Oakland at San Francisco 4:05 PM

Pat:   There is not much logic in this prediction other than I just simply refuse to believe the 49ers can be 0-6.  I’m picking them every week until they win.  It’s like MVP’s losing streak angle on Smackdown a while back, keep losing and losing and eventually people will want you to win and you will! 49ers 17, Raiders 10

Fantasy pick:  49ers WR Michael Crabtree, looks like the new offensive coordinator in SanFran sees Crabtree’s potential, and they’re getting him the ball now.

John: The Niners have to win at some point, right? The Raiders can be feisty at home, and even though they're not travelling very far here, it's still a road game. San Fran is due. I thought so last week. Maybe this time. Right? Niners 20-10

Dallas at Minnesota 4:15 PM 

Pat:  As surprising as it seems, after this game, one of these teams will be 1-4.   Throw defense out the window here; it’ll be a shootout, and I’m going with the home team. Vikings 34, Cowboys 28

Fantasy pick:  Vikings WR Randy Moss. It was obvious to see after Monday night that Favre is going to chuck a few long ones Randy’s way throughout the games. And he is Randy Moss, he’ll catch some of those!

John: I am 0-4 picking Dallas games this year. I can never get them right. This week, I go against them because I think the Vikings have the superior team. However, both teams are flawed. The Dallas running game isn't as good as it was, and it makes their offense too reliant on the pass. Romo's had nice yards, but he throws picks at the worst times.

The Vikings pass rush used to be a strength. Now it seems like they're unable to pressure the QB very well. For whatever reason, I like the Vikings more due to the home crowd and the fact that I think Adrian Peterson can have a good game. Ram it down their throats. As for the loser? Looks like no playoffs for you. Vikings 28-23

Indianapolis at Washington 8:20 PM 

Pat:   The Redskins are the opposite of the 49ers to me.  A team I keep expecting to lose, but they keep winning.  However, I would seldom bet against Peyton Manning; the Chiefs held him in check, but don’t see that happening two weeks in a row. Colts 28, Redskins 21

Fantasy pick:  Redskins RB Ryan Torain. Portis is sidelined and Colts do not have much of a run D.

John: Last week, Indy beat the Chiefs 19-9. Weird score. They have games like that. I'm not sure why. This week? They win again in low scoring fashion because I still have no idea what kind of team the Redskins are. Not sure if they know either. Colts 24-14

Tennessee at Jacksonville 8:35 PM (Mon) 

Pat:   If Vince Young continues to mature and play better at QB, I like this Titans team.  That and that one Chris Johnson guy.   Sure the Jags sit at 3-2, but they’re probably the worst 3-2 team in the league. 

Titans 27, Jaguars 16

Fantasy pick:  Titans WR Kenny Britt should hold on to the No. 1 WR job. Even if Gage comes back, Vince looks for him a lot in the end zone.

John: The Jags are one of those teams that plays better at home. It's Monday night. Divisional team they're familiar with. I feel it'll be a close game. In the end, though, can they stop Chris Johnson enough? I don't think so. Elite defenses can. These guys can't. Give me

the Titans in a close one. Titans 23-21

JC AGAINST THE SPREAD

John: Every week I'll pick four games against the spread or using the over/under. These are my best four picks of the week. I use pinnaclesports.com for this.

Last week: 0-4 - BRUTAL! I am getting destroyed this year. Good thing I'm broke.  

Season: 6-14

STEELERS -13.5 over Browns - Even if it was 14 or up, I'd like this. A rookie QB on the road against that defense? I'll go with the better team every time.

Ravens/Patriots UNDER 45 - Feels like low scoring to me.

BUCCANEERS +4 over Saints - I'll roll with a home dog here.

Jets -3 over BRONCOS - They're the hot team. I'm liking them.

We'll see you next week.

John Canton - [e-mail] or Twitter.com/johnreport

Pat Lamorte - Twitter.com/plamorte