NFL Week 6 Picks: Baltimore Ravens-New England Patriots, Randy Moss-Deion Branch
This Baltimore Ravens' matchup with the New England Patriots has two story lines.
One is that the battle will be the game of the week, and maybe the game of the year. It has the potential to shape the AFC's playoff picture.
Two is that Randy Moss has left New England and Deion Branch has returned. All eyes will be on Branch this week to see how he replaces Super Freak.
Here is a breakdown of the game's matchups and a prediction for the outcome of the game:
Baltimore Running Game vs New England Running Defense
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Numbers
Baltimore rushes for 114 per game (14th)
New England surrenders 112.2 per game (20th)
Analysis
The identity of the Ravens offense is running the football. When the Ravens can establish the running game, their offense is almost unstoppable.
Look for them to go to the ground early and often.
The Patriots will most likely load the box and force an inconsistent Joe Flacco to make plays.
The Ravens could struggle unless Flacco gets hot and gets the Patriots secondary to back off.
Edge: Push
This matchup could go either way.
New England Running Game vs Baltimore Run Defense
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Numbers
New England rushes for 122.2 a game (13th)
Baltimore surrenders 101.2 per game (10th)
Analysis
Most would assume Baltimore would have the advantage by a mile, but after looking at the stats, the two attacks are very even.
Stats don't tell the whole story for Baltimore though.
They surrendered 173 yards on the ground in a fluke performance to the Browns, and they gave up 123 against their last two opponents.
Still, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging an impressive 4.6 a carry.
Edge: Push
Again, too close to call. The game will be decided through the air.
Baltimore Passing Game vs New England Passing Defense
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Numbers
Baltimore passes for 214.2 (18th)
New England surrenders 272.2 (28th)
Analysis
Baltimore's passing game has the potential to be elite.
Joe Flacco has the arm to make every throw on the football field.
Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmanzadeh and Donte Stallworth make up one of the best receiving cores in the league. Don't forget about their tight end trio of Todd Heap, Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta either.
Despite the big names, the Ravens still haven't hit their stride though the air, but they won't need to play perfect to have success against an abysmal Patriots secondary.
The Patriots passing defense is the main reason why they give up 24 points a game.
Edge: Baltimore
The first true edge of the game isn't that hard to call.
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New England Passing Game vs Baltimore Passing Defense
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Numbers
New England passes for 222 a game (15th)
Baltimore surrenders 156.6 (second)
Analysis
The Randy Moss-Deion Branch swap will greatly affect the Patriots passing game.
No longer do the Patriots have a bona fide deep threat defenses must respect.
Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, who have had great years, may struggle without Moss there to spread the field.
Projected to be the weakness of the defense and entire team, the Baltimore secondary has let up just over 150 yards through the air. That astonishing number was earned without All-World center fielder Ed Reed.
Edge: Baltimore
Moss will be missed in the Patriots' first game without him.
Return Game
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Numbers
New England's average kick return is 31.6 (second); two touchdowns
Baltimore's average kick return is 21.4 (24th)
New England's average punt return is 7.5 (22nd)
Baltimore's average punt return is 6.1 (27th)
Edge: New England
Kicking Game
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Numbers
New England's field goal percentage is 57 (32nd)
Baltimore's field goal percentage is 71 (23rd)
New England's punt net average is 38.2 (15th)
Baltimore's punt net average 37.2 (18th)
Edge: Baltimore
Conclusion
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Game Summary
Both teams' running games will be solid, but not effective enough on their own to move the ball into scoring range.
As each resort to moving the ball through the air, only one team will have success.
The Ravens will march using a pass-first, run-second attack.
Thanks to their return game providing excellent field position, the Patriots will be able to stay in the game the whole contest.
When the clock hits zero, though, the black and purple will be victorious.
Prediction: 24-17 Baltimore
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