NFL Season Preview Part I: Ten Predictions

Since this is my first football season writing for Bleacher Report, I'll take a moment to explain how I usually preview a football season. Part one contains burning questions/random predictions about specific issues I feel are important coming into the new season.

Part two is where I break down each division, and give you the records of each team and who will make the playoffs. I will go round by round through the playoffs in part three, and I will give you the Super Bowl winner.

Within the next week, I will have laid out how the entire season will unfold, and you can take those results to Vegas/the bank/the money bank and do what you will with them.

Without further ado:

1. The Philadelphia Eagles will be like the Carolina Panthers of last year: the chic underdog pick that will greatly underperform.

I've been reading more and more about how the Eagles are being overlooked, and with a healthy McNabb, the Eagles are poised to return to the NFC's elite. They seem to be that team that the media falls in love with every year, but they don't do anything.

I haven't seen anything that indicates to me that the Eagles will be any better. Though McNabb is healthy, he is now three and a half years removed from the Super Bowl, which was his prime. He's not getting any younger.

While Brian Westbrook is always quality, there is no receiving threat that will take the Eagles to the next level. And when you're in a division with the defending champs, a high-octane offense, and a team with something to prove, common sense says you will be the one on the outside looking in.

2. This will be Jay Cutler's coming out year.

I've always been fascinated by Jay Cutler, ever since his draft stock rose in the Leinart/Bush/Young draft. I first thought the Broncos were fools drafting a QB a mere three months after Jake Plummer brought them to the AFC Championship game. Well, I guess there's a reason I'm not in an NFL front office.

Within a few weeks of the season, Plummer had imploded, and Cutler took the reins. I was struck the way he carried himself, and the way he held the ball. It exudes a quiet confidence, and even when he makes a mistake, he seems to take it in stride, as if saying, "Well, I've got to get these stupid mistakes out of my system at some point."

People call Cutler a gunslinger, which is a misleading term. When you hear gunslinger, you think Brett Favre, and that to me implies a certain carelessness with the ball.

Cutler is a  true gunslinger, the kind of gunslinger played by Clint Eastwood in his films. He's got the mechanics, he's got the experience, and now he's got a division that is ripe for the picking. With the Chargers' window closing, the continued ineptitude of the Cardinals, Raiders and Chiefs, Cutler will play his first postseason game this January, and he might even play in a few.

3. New York will be an interesting place to be.

Between the closing of Yankees and Shea stadiums, the introduction of Broadway Brett and the possibly the most underestimated returning Super Bowl champs ever, New York is fixing to be a hotbed of sports news in the months to come.

With Brett Favre getting the honor of having his own headline on ESPN news (an honor held for good reasons (Phelps) and bad (Vick, Spygate, Donaghy)), the New York Jets have taken a step out of the mediocrity that has enveloped them the last few years.

What does this mean? Well, for the New York Giants, it means that there won't be as much attention on them, something they seem to thrive on.

It means that with the New York media off his case, the razor-tongued Shockey gone, Eli Manning will be free to be himself, which is a good quarterback. Factor in the draft steal Mario Manningham, a (supposedly) healthy Plax, as well as Ahmad Bradshaw in his second year, things are looking good for Big Blue.

As far as the other tenants of the Meadowlands, not so good. it will be interesting to see how the Jets go from perhaps the worst downfield passer in history to one of the best.

While Favre will get the Jets some much needed media time, he won't get them too many much needed wins. Thomas Jones, while good as the weaker half of a tandem running team, still isn't ready to be an every down back. Although, his former partner in crime (pardon the pun) Cedric Benson is now available.

4. Aaron Rodgers will replace Eli Manning as the QB who is over-scrutinized for reasons beyond his control.

Much like Eli Manning was born into a football familiy, Aaron Rodgers was born into the end of a dynasty. Brett Favre has represented the Pack like no other before him, but his time had to end sooner or later.

Someone had to replace Brett, and it just so happens the cosmic lottery winner is Aaron Rodgers.

Much like Eli was picked apart because his brother was setting records while Eli was struggling as a young QB, Rodgers will be constantly under the microscope as Favre plays on the East Coast.

Is it fair? Nope. Should it happen? Probably not, but if you think ESPN won't be mentioning Favre's name in the recaps of every single Packers game, you're wrong.

Rodgers did pretty well against the Cowboys last year, a fact that was lost in the hubbub of Favre's return the next week. I think he'll be pretty good, but I think he will be endlessly scrutinized for not living up the Favre.

Even though Favre only won one Super Bowl, Rodgers will have to win one soon, or he will be labeled a failure. The good news? It happened for Eli, so nothing's impossible.

5. Troy Smith will do well, and Joe Flacco won't start a single game.

I have never seen a bigger victim of negative hype than Troy Smith. For most of the 2006-07 season, Ohio State was an unstoppable juggernaut, led by one of the most poised, talented QBs I've ever seen at the college level.

Smith won the Heisman, and seemed destined to be a top-10 pick. Then what happened? He turned in a stink-bomb in the biggest game possible, and he was relegated to a being a fifth round pick to no notice.

Why? He's still the same player, he just played a bad game. I think the Ravens got a steal, and even now, no one gives Smith his due. He had a respectable showing last year, (2 TDs, 0 INT 52.6 completion %), and should get better with more experience.

With a QB as mobile as Smith behind an awful O-Line, it will be interesting to see how Smith emerges from this season. The buzz around the D.C. area is that Smith will only be a place-filler for Flacco until the line improves, or Flacco becomes ready.

I almost enjoy Smith going under the radar, because he will make a splash one of these days, and I've said it from day one.

6. Unlike previous years, the Redskins offense will do fine, the defense will be suspect.

In previous years, young QB Jason Campbell and his offense struggled with moving the ball down the field, but managed to get into the playoffs the last few years with the strength of a rock-solid D.

Now with Jim Zorn, an offensive guru, the offense seems to get more potent, while the D will slip.

In the preseason, though it is only the preseason, Campbell has looked more comfortable than he has since he was at Auburn, running a quick-out West Coast offense.

Add a catching tight-end, two receivers ready to get back into the league elite, and two other rookie receivers looking to make their mark, and the 'Skins offense looks to be set.

Despite the addition of Jason Taylor, the Redskins D is looking older and slower than the year before. While the drafting of WRs helped them on the offensive end, they didn't fill any needs on D.

This seems to indicate what Zorn's priorities will be during his tenure in D.C., and it will be interesting to see what it translates to in terms of wins and losses.

7. The Dolphins, Lions, Raiders, Cardinals, Texans, Falcons, 49ers, Rams and Chiefs will continue their losing ways.

The last four are just general statements, you'll have to wait until part II to get the full explanations for specific teams.

8. The Patriots, Jags, Colts, Cowboys, Steelers, Giants and Titans will remain good.

9. The Chargers, Browns, Seahawks and Buccaneers will start to decline.

10. The Vikings, Saints, Bills, Bengals and Broncos are teams on the rise.