NFL Week 5 Predictions: Ranking the Best Bets and All Games Against the Spread
Finally, after four weeks of going .500 I finally broke the streak and had a decent week in the NFL.
I picked all of the games against the spread in week four and finished with a record of 8-6 against the spread (ATS). On the year that brings my seasonal record to 31-29 ATS.
As we head into week five I am going to change things up a bit. I am still going to cover every game against the spread but I will rank the games with my best bet being #1. I have received a few emails abut which one is my best bet and this should clear up some questions and offer a different look on the week.
Here are the picks for every game against the spread in week five in the NFL.
(Byes: Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, Seattle)
14. Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
1 of 14
Time: 1:00PM
Channel: FOX
Where: Paul Brown Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: Cincinnati -6.5
The Buccaneers were undefeated at 3-0 and got a rude wake-up call against the Steelers. They had a week off to think about before running into another AFC North foe in Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals have had some issues this year as well and are struggling in many areas. They are struggling in the red zone and the Bengals need to fix their problems if they want to keep up with the other teams in the North. This was the hardest game to handicap, because you never know which team will show up. The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
The Bengals are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 and I am backing the Bucs in this game.
Tampa Bay +6.5
13. Denver at Baltimore
2 of 14
Time: 1:00 PM
Channel: CBS
Where: M&T Bank Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: Baltimore -7
The Ravens are off a black and blue last-minute win against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers, and that sets up perfect for a letdown. The Denver Broncos are off a huge upset on the road against the Titans and that kind of win will carry momentum into this game as evident by the 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games following a win.
The Broncos remember the game they played against Baltimore last year.
“We had a bad week of preparation, a bad week of practice last year before we played the Ravens,” Denver Head coach Josh McDaniels said. “They’re a really good football team, a physical football team. We’re going to need to be ready to play our most physical game of the year against them.”
The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win and are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
It is interesting to note that Baltimore has a great defense, but is last in the league in takeaways.
Broncos may win again and the points are the way to go.
Denver +7
12. New Orleans at Arizona
3 of 14
Time: 4:05 PM
Channel: FOX
Where: U of Phoenix Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: New Orleans -6.5
I was ready to play against the Saints coming into this game. They just have not played well in my opinion all season long.
Then the Cardinals go and announce undrafted rookie Max Hall, will start the game over benched Derek Anderson. Max Hall is a good quarterback, very mature and in my opinion will be a star in this league but I am not ready to put money on him in his first game.
The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings, and the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. This game stinks to me, but I will lean to the Saints.
Saints -6.5
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11. NY Giants at Houston
4 of 14
Time:1:00 PM
Channel: FOX
Where: Reliant Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: Houston -3
The Giants are had one of the best defensive games of the year as they harassed and knocked out any quarterback the Bears put on the field.
The Texans traveled to the West coast and beat up the Raiders to get into the win column.
Both teams are banged up so injuries will be a question coming into this game. The Texans still have the worst defense in the NFL and the Giants are starting to play much better.
The Giants are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog. The Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
The defensive problems continue to hurt the Texans and the Giants win.
Giants +3
10. Tennessee at Dallas
5 of 14
Time: 4:15 PM
Channel: CBS
Where: Cowboys Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: Dallas -7
The Titans have to feel miserable after losing a lead late in the game and falling to the Denver Broncos. Now they travel to face the Dallas Cowboys fresh off a bye.
Rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant is healthy again and should be licking his chops going against the weak pass defense of the Titans. The Titans have an aggressive defense, lead the league in sacks, and will take a few extra swipes after the whistle, but it won’t be enough.
The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a bye week and will get a very big win this week.
Cowboys -7
9. Kansas City at Indianapolis
6 of 14
Time: 1:00 PM
Channel: CBS
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: Colts -7
The Chiefs are off of a bye week and undefeated, yet they are getting no respect. The Colts already have two losses this season to include an upset loss to the Jaguars last weekend. A look inside the numbers will show why the Chiefs have a chance of being 4-0 after this game. The Chiefs are great in the NFL running the football, with 160.7 yards per game (third) and 4.63 yards per attempt (eighth). Indianapolis has trouble stopping the run at 149.5 YPG (29th) and 4.98 YPA (30th) which is good enough for a bottom ranking in the NFL.
The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. While I am not ready to pick the Chiefs to upset Manning at home, I am taking the points.
Chiefs +7
8. Atlanta at Cleveland
7 of 14
Time: 1:00 PM
Channel: FOX
Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: Atlanta -3
The Browns won as a divisional dog against the Bengals and the Falcons got a late win at home over the 49ers in week four.
The Browns have found a legitimate star in running back Peyton Hillis, who is tearing up opposing defenses for big yardage. They excel at home where they get the backing of a rowdy fan base. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog, and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.
Atlanta is 1-8 ATS off back to back wins and will get beat in Cleveland this Sunday.
Cleveland +3
7. Philadelphia at San Francisco
8 of 14
Time: 8:20 PM
Channel: NBC
Where: Candlestick Park
Latest Line from BetMania: San Francisco -3
The slumping San Francisco 49ers will attempt to get their first win when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles without quarterback Michael Vick.
Kevin Kolb will get a shot again to regain his starting position if they can win on the road, but all the pressure sits with the 49ers.
Head coach Mike Singletary and quarterback Alex Smith could be facing the last years with the team if they don’t start winning soon. Catching the eagles on a west coast trip is a good place to start.
The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, 0-5 ATS in their last five against the NFC, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.
The 49ers get the first win of the season with a win over the Birds on Sunday night football.
49ers -3
6. Jacksonville at Buffalo
9 of 14
Time: 1:00 PM
Channel: CBS
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: Buffalo -1
Buffalo has yet to win a game on the season, but it looks like this could be a good time to get it. The Jags have to be in letdown mode as they travel to Buffalo after the big win over the Colts. The jags are still 30th in the league in total defense and the Bills catch them in a good spot.
The Bills are actually impressive as home chalk as they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Jags 7-19 ATS against a team with a losing record, 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The Bills get their first win of the season in week five.
Buffalo -1
5. San Diego at Oakland
10 of 14
Time: 4:15 PM
Channel: CBS
Where: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Latest Line from BetMania: Chargers -7
The Chargers are a great team, but they have had some trouble on the road losing to Seattle and Kansas City and both were very ugly.
The Raiders seem to be close to breaking out but self-inflicted mistakes always set them back. If you read my weekly article you will know that I am often a sucker for a divisional dog and this week I am at it again.
I have been burned by the Raiders before (see last week) but they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and the Chargers have a slew of trends against them. The Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. Because of this and the bad road play of the Bolts I am on the home dog in division one more time.
Oakland +7
4. Green Bay at Washington
11 of 14
Time: 1:00 PM
Channel: FOX
Where: FedEx Field
Latest Line from BetMania: Green Bay -3
What’s wrong with the Packers? After a loss to the Bears, which consisted of 18 penalties, the Pack barley held on at home to get the win over the winless Detroit lions. I believe it’s a combination of losing Ryan Grant in the backfield and injuries to the Packer’s defense.
The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and the Redskins are 5-1-3 ATS in their last nine games on grass.
Donovan McNabb has the Redskins believing they are winners. It might be surprising to some to see that the Redskins have a higher ranking on total offense than Green bay. The Redskins carry the momentum from a big win at Philadelphia and get the win at home.
Redskins +3
3. Chicago at Carolina
12 of 14
Time: 1:00 PM
Channel: FOX
Where: Bank of America Stadium
Latest Line from BetMania: Carolina -1
After getting pummeled by the Giants on Sunday night, it was reported that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler will be out for this game against the Panthers. The Panthers will be without superstar wide receiver Steve Smith. It is surprising that a team without a win is a one point favorite over a team with just one loss on the season.
Rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen is looking better and better each week for the Panthers and after the near upset of the Saints, the Panthers believe they can win ball games. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC, 8-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
The Panthers win this game out right and watch for the play of rookie wide receiver Brandon LaFell, this will be a breakout game.
Carolina -1
2. St. Louis at Detroit
13 of 14
Time: 1:00 PM
Channel: FOX
Where: Ford Field
Latest Line from JustBet.com Detroit -3
This is one of the more interesting games on the board. The Rams are a surprise team in the NFC, while the Lions have yet to win a game.
The Lions may not have won a game but they still are three point favorites coming into this game. The Lions have lost games to some pretty impressive opponents to include Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Philly. More surprising is that their offense ranks 15th overall in the league and is function well even without Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The Rams are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
The Lions get their first win of the year and cover the small number.
Lions -3
1. Best Bet: Minnesota at NY Jets
14 of 14
Time: 8:30 PM
Channel: ESPN
Where: New Meadowlands Stadium
Latest Line from JustBet.com Jets -4
The new look Vikings will have wide receiver Randy Moss in uniform when they take on the New York Jets on Monday night football. After a rough start against the Ravens the jets have rebounded to run through the AFC East with three straight victories.
The Vikings have only been missing one ingredient, and that is a deep threat at the wide receiver spot which they now get with Moss.
The Jets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday games. The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a losing road record and could lose this game on the field.
Vikings +4
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel Free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com
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