Free NFL Picks Atlanta at Cleveland 10-10-2010

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns

Ocober 10th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Atlanta -3

Overview:

The 3-1 Falcons have been involved in three tight games this year. They lost a heart breaker in week one in overtime, but the football Gods shined upon them as they beat the Saints in overtime and squeaked past the 49ers with a last second field goal. The Browns may have even shocked themselves by beating the Bengals last week. They come into this match up 1-3, losing to teams by only one score in each of their three losses.

Keys to the Game:

• Both teams have played in tight games all year long, but the Falcons have found a way to win and the Browns have found a way to lose. Let’s take the Falcons game last week for example. Nate Clements picks off Matt Ryan in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. It looks like disaster has struck the Falcons, but in a last ditch effort, Roddy White pokes the ball out near the ten yard line. The Falcons recover the fumble, drive all the way down the field, and kick in the last second field goal. Luck? Maybe. Will? Definitely. By going the extra mile when it matters the most, the Falcons find a way to win. The Browns on the other hand narrowly escape victories most of the time. That is why this spread is so close. Atlanta doesn’t generally win big, despite blowing out the Cardinals earlier this year. The Browns usually lose, but only by a small margin.
• Roddy White is going to have a monster game. He leads the NFL with 50 targets. Terrell Owens paved the way last week for White to come in and duplicate his 222 yard performance. The Browns don’t have an elite lock down corner to match up against White.  Eric Wright isn’t the answer and Matt Ryan knows it. He is going to throw at White all game long and White is going to produce.
• Michael Turner is due for a big game. He had 114 yards against the Saints, but it took 30 carries and overtime to produce his lone game with over 100 yards rushing. Fantasy owners have been sorely disappointed by his performance thus far and the Browns are the perfect team to gash. This week could be just what Turner needs. The Browns are soft. They don’t let up a huge amount of points, but unless you are Jordan Shipley, you won’t be feeling the effects of the game the morning after you play the Browns. Turner is a bruiser back with surprising agility and speed. If he gets going, he may not stop.
• Seneca Wallace and Peyton Hillis should never be your backfield. The Browns lack talent, but their QB RB combo is embarrassing. Josh Cribbs has improved at receiver, but he shouldn’t be the number one guy. He is one of the best athletes in the game and a versatile playmaker. By making him their go to guy, he could come down with Devin Hester syndrome. The Browns are robbing Peter to pay Paul by trying to make Cribbs more involved in the offense. He needs o go back to doing everything if they want to win consistently.

Wrap up:

Write it down, lock it in, the Falcons are going to roll over the Browns. I know, I know, last week I had the Bengals running away with it. Lightning isn’t going to strike in the same place twice. The Browns are at home, but the Falcons are a good team. I can’t see the Browns handling their fire power. They might be able to hold them off for a half, but the Falcons are going to win this one by at least seven.

Free NFL Pick: Atlanta -3