Rams, Chargers, Jets and Titans Are 2-0 in Blowout Victories Through NFL Week 4

This has been a challenging year for those who attempt to predict  winners in the NFL. One reason for this is that 58 percent of the games have ended up being decided by eight points or less. This is a rather high percentage and suggests that "taking the points" has been a good general strategy thus far during the 2010 NFL season.

For the purpose of this analysis I have designated any win by nine or more points as a "blowout victory", although a more accurate description might be a "convincing win". Let's look at these games in isolation and see what they tell us about the performance of NFL teams through week 4 of the 2010 season.

First, here are the wins by nine or more points:

Week 1
Patriots over Bengals
Giants over Panthers
Titans over Raiders
Texans over Colts
Seahawks over 49ers

Week 2
Falcons over Cardinals
Buccaneers over Panthers
Packers over Bills
Broncos over Seahawks
Jets over Patriots
Chargers over Jaguars
Colts over Giants

Week 3
Titans over Giants
Bengals over Panthers
Steelers over Buccaneers
Chiefs over 49ers
Cowboys over Texans
Vikings over Lions
Rams over Redskins
Eagles over Jaguars
Colts over Broncos

Week 4
Rams over Seahawks
Jets over Bills
Chargers over Cardinals
Giants over Bears
Patriots over Dolphins


AFC versus NFC

The blowouts confirm that the AFC is the more dominant conference. The AFC is 15-11 in blowout victories and 34-29 overall while the NFC is 11-15 in blowout games and 28-33 overall. In inter-conference blowout victories, the AFC leads 6-3 over the NFC.


The AFC

The first column is the team's overall record while the second column is the team's record in blowouts.

AFC East
Jets	3-1	2-0
Patriots	3-1	2-1
Dolphins	2-2	0-1
Bills	0-4	0-2
AFC North
Ravens	3-1	0-0
Steelers	3-1	1-0
Bengals	2-2	1-1
Browns	1-3	0-0
AFC South
Texans	3-1	1-1
Jaguars	2-2	0-2
Colts	2-2	2-1
Titans	2-2	2-0
AFC West
Chiefs	3-0	1-0
Chargers	2-2	2-0
Broncos	2-2	1-1
Raiders	1-3	0-1

The blowout victories in the AFC East corroborate the current overall standings. This is particularly reinforced by the Jets convincing win over the Patriots.

In the AFC North we see that the Steelers may be a hair better than the Ravens despite losing a close game to them. This is because the Ravens have yet to produce a blowout victory. We also see that Cleveland has not been blown out yet and so may be better than their overall record indicates.

The blowout victories suggest that the AFC South is truly wide open as the Titans are 2-0 in blowouts while the Texans and Colts have each experienced a blowout loss. It is worth noting that the Colts blowout loss came at the hands of the Texans. Meanwhile the Jaguars have been 0-2 in blowouts and this suggests that they may have trouble hanging with the rest of the division.

The AFC West blowouts confirm the overall standings and suggest that the Chiefs and Chargers are a step ahead of the Broncos and Raiders thus far.

The NFC

NFC East
Redskins	2-2	0-1
Giants	2-2	2-2
Eagles	2-2	1-0
Cowboys	1-2	1-0
NFC North
Bears	3-1	0-1
Packers	3-1	1-0
Vikings	1-2	1-0
Lions	0-4	0-1
NFC South
Falcons	3-1	1-0
Saints	3-1	0-0
Buccaneers	2-1	1-1
Panthers	0-4	0-3
NFC West
Cardinals	2-2	0-2
Rams	2-2	2-0
Seahawks	2-2	1-2
49ers	0-4	0-2

In the wide open NFC East we see that the Eagles and Cowboys are the teams that have avoided blowout losses thus far while the Redskins are the only team without a blowout win. Every Giants game has been either a blowout win or loss reinforcing the roller coaster nature of their season thus far.

In the NFC North we see that the Bears may be a bit suspect since they have no blowout victories while the Vikings are 1-0 in blowouts suggesting they are better than their record thus far. The Packers 1-0 record in blowouts shows that they cannot yet be considered a true juggernaut in the NFC.

The Saints have yet to have a blowout win and the Falcons only have one and so this division is definitely up for grabs. The Buccaneers single blowout victory is over the winless Panthers and they also have a blowout loss indicating that they may not be ready to challenge for the division crown.

In the NFC West the surprising Rams are clearly the team to beat given their 2-0 performance in blowout games and particularly noting their convincing win over the Seahawks. The Cardinals are particularly suspect in this division given their 0-2 record in blowouts.


Final Thoughts

Through Week 4 in the NFL season we see just 4 teams with 2-0 records in blowouts. They are the Jets, Titans, Chargers and Rams. Other teams without a blowout loss thus far are the Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, Falcons and Saints. If picking up blowout victories and avoiding blowout losses is a useful measuring stick for early season performance, then these are the teams to watch during the rest of the NFL season.