New England Patriots Vs. Miami Dolphins, Monday Night Football Odds and Pick

The AFC East is under the spotlight Monday night and if Vegas' betting odds are any indication, it appears as if it will be a very close and high scoring affair. The Patriots vs. Dolphins point spread is at Miami +1.5 with the 'total' up to a hefty 47.5 after opening at 46 at Sportsbook.com.

The 2-1 Patriots have issues on defense, allowing 27.3 points per game (PPG) through their first three games; including 30 last weekend to the lowly Buffalo Bills. There biggest problem has been their pass defense, ranking 25^th in the entire NFL, surrendering an alarming 260.3 passing yards per game. Additionally, quarterbacks who've had the good fortune to face the Pats combined for a 101.3 passer rating and a 69.4 completion percentage.

Miami's quarterback Chad Henne is coming off a 363 yard and two touchdown outburst last weekend versus the usually pass stingy New York Jets. Henne was able to finally hook-up with newly acquired Brandon Marshall at will. Marshall torched the Jets' defense for 166 yards on 10 receptions and a touchdown.

Despite the Henne-Marshall connection last weekend, Miami was unable to keep up with the Jets, losing 31-23. Putting points on the board has been somewhat of a concern early on for the Fins. Week one they could only muster up 15 points against the Bills, then the following wee they scored just 14 points in Minnesota.

After scanning over some key NFL betting trends, some numbers jump off the page; both supporting the Dolphins covering the point spread. The last five times the Patriots and Dolphins squared off, Miami went 4-1 against the spread (ATS). Additionally, the Dolphins have been a great bet when playing their divisional counterparts recently. In their last ten AFC East games, Miami is a money making 8-2 ATS.

Oddsauthority.com Monday Night Football Pick and Prediction:

Miami Dolphins +1.5

New England is a team that is currently overvalued by the odds-makers. There defense has way too many holes. Randy Moss appears to be finally slowing down. And you never know exactly what to expect from their running game.

There one constant is Tom Brady; however, he'll face the NFL's ninth ranked pass defense in both yardage allowed (193) and yardage per attempt.

There is always a little extra value in home underdogs. Just this week they went 3-2 ATS with three outright victories.

Despite over 75 percent of the early bettors at Sportsbook.com backing New England, Miami +1 is the play.