NFL SpreadSHREDDER, Week 4: The New York Giants Will Bear Down at Home

SpreadSHREDDER Week 3 Record: 1-2

Overall Record: 5-3-1

With its first losing week of the season, the SpreadSHREDDER looks to take advantage of some inflated winners to get back in the black for Week 4.  With that said...

 

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) OVER CHICAGO BEARS (Sportsbook.com)

The New York Giants are now front and center of merciless scrutiny as an embarrassing performance (filled with penalties and turnovers) has made them the ire of the New York media.  With the Giants suffering back to back embarrassing losses, there is now the annual talk of Tom Coughlin losing his job. 

But when it comes to the SpreadSHREDDER, overreaction creates action.  Coming off back to back losses, the Giants will figure to have more focused, intense practices as they get ready to play on national television where they will be desperate to redeem themselves. 

Eli Manning threw for 7.28 yards per attempt, versus Vince Young's 6.47 YPA, in a game that the Giants lost despite out gaining Tennessee in total yards and time of possession.  Needless to say, such a phony loss creates value for the Giants who will be more motivated to protect their home field advantage on a big stage.

Chicago will be coming off a third straight emotional victory after outlasting their arch rival Green Bay.  The phony nationally televised victory, influenced by Green Bay penalties, in a game where Jay Cutler's yards per attempt were far fewer than that of Aaron Rodgers, have contributed towards making the Bears among the most inflated teams in the league.

The short week, and Monday night follow up after playing a divisional opponent hurts the Bears value as well.  Such short travel bodes well for a Giants team that will be due after two straight performances where they missed the spread by double digits, and the Bears will be battling fatigue.

NEW YORK GIANTS, 30-17

 

SAN DIEGO (-8) OVER ARIZONA (Sportsbook.com)

The Chargers will be coming off of a phony loss to the Seattle Seahawks, where they moved the ball effortlessly against the Seahawks and had multiple chances to win the game late.

Now, the Chargers will be playing at home against the Arizona Cardinals who enjoyed a phony win on the strength of three missed field goals by Sebastian Janikowski.

The Chargers suddenly find themselves in very familiar territory, faced with somewhat of an early, must-win situation.  With the Cardinals playing a non-conference game on the road, their third road game in four weeks, the value is clearly with the home favorite Chargers.

Philip Rivers threw the ball 53 times last week as the Chargers abandoned their running game with starting RB Ryan Matthews sidelined with an ankle injury.  With Matthews back, expect a more balanced attack to facilitate the Chargers' passing game against a passing defense that ranks 19th in the league despite facing two quarterbacks (out of three) who were not their teams' projected starter just one month ago.

Philip Rivers and the Chargers should roll in an important Week 4 contest against a below average Cardinals team.

SAN DIEGO, 38-10.

 

BUFFALO (+5.5) OVER NEW YORK JETS  (Sportsbook.com)

The Buffalo Bills have found success on offense with a recent quarterback switch to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and now they return home as underdogs to play the New York Jets.  Home underdogs have been an impressive 63 percent against the spread this season, and the Bills will be intercepting a Jets team coming off back to back emotional victories, one of which was on national television.

The Bills will enter this contest as a spread range underdog, basically meaning the Jets have been playing above their own abilities against the spread in comparison to the Bills' ATS figure through three weeks, and are bound to come back to the pack. 

The spread range tool was the same tool utilized to pick the Cowboys as a road underdog at Houston in last week's SpreadSHREDDER.

Playing as a home underdog, and against a divisional opponent coming off two emotional wins, plays right into the Bills' hand as a strong underdog pick.   It also helps that the Bills played the Jets tough twice last season, and will be seeking revenge for a 19-13 home loss last season.

BUFFALO, 16-9.

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