New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Pick & Odds: September 19th 2010

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Pick: New England Patriots -3 -110 odds
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This is a statement game for the Patriots. And it has nothing to do with last week or even last year for that matter. New England feels it is still the class of the AFC East yet all it heard throughout the offseason was how the Jets are now the team to beat following their improbable run to the AFC Championship. That is a huge motivator for teams that get dissed like that and the Patriots are one of the best at coming through in these situations. They will be hungry even after last week’s blowout win.

The Jets put up a pretty poor effort on Monday night against Baltimore and now much try to regroup on a short week. Their run through the playoffs last season was very impressive but look at it this way. Had the Colts and Bengals not rested their starters in the final two games of the regular season, New York may have never even made the playoffs and it would not be the big sleeper pick in the AFC. The defense is one of the best but the offense is horrid and I am far from sold on this team.

The Jets defense bottled up quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots offense in the first meeting a season ago. You have to give them credit for that but at the same time, it was only the second game back for Brady who missed the entire 2008 season with a knee injury. He got a mulligan for that performance. Good quarterbacks bounce back and Brady did just that. In the second meeting he went 28-41 for 310 yards and a touchdown as the Patriots got their payback and rolled.

On the other side, Mark Sanchez was very efficient in the first meeting. In the second meeting, he imploded by going 8-21 for 136 yards with a touchdown and four interceptions. A lot of that was Sanchez but more so it was the Patriots coaching staff that adjusted and came up with a great gameplan. You can count on Bill Belichick doing the same this week. He will load the box to stop the run, which the Jets will try to establish, and make Sanchez beat them. I don’t think Sanchez can accomplish that.

The running games of both sides will be very important here and I consider it a draw. The Jets bottled up the Ravens while their own running game was solid. The problem this week as mentioned before is that New England will be all over the run and they will utilize different looks to confuse Sanchez even more. The Patriots ran well last week against a very solid Bengals defense as they rushing for 118 yards on only 23 carries (5.1 ypc) while the defense shut down Cincinnati’s ground game by allowing 87 yards on 25 carries (3.5 ypc).

The Patriots are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while going 32-13-1 ATS in its last 36 games against teams coming off a loss as a chalk. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses in the first month of the season. This situation is 83-45 ATS (64.8 percent) since 1983. 3* New England Patriots

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