TCU vs. Baylor Pick & Odds: September 18th 2010

TCU vs. Baylor
Pick: Baylor +21 -110 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more expert college football picks from Matt Fargo

TCU is one of the best teams in the nation and the three touchdown spread doesn’t seem to be scaring the public away. The majority of wagers have come in on the home team which comes as no surprise as the favorites are the ones getting the looks most of the time. I could see this number being put down against a bottom-tiered team from the Big XII but not one that is going to be going to a bowl game. The Horned Frogs had better be ready because this is not a Baylor team it can tale lightly.

Baylor has not had a winning season since 1995 and has not gone to a bowl game since 1994 but this is the year that it changes. The Bears are off to a 2-0 start and even though the wins have come against FCS San Houston St. and Buffalo, the wins have been impressive. They are one of only three teams that have not allowed a touchdown through two games (Alabama and Arizona) and while the schedule is the reason for that, playing defense like that against any team is impressive.

The Horned Frogs need to be concerned about Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III because he is the type of quarterback that can actually flourish against the aggressive TCU defense. Griffin was injured in the third game of the 2009 season and missed the final nine games last year with a torn ACL. This year he is ranked 13th in total offense and can make plays with his arm and his feet. Because TCU leaves it corners on an island, if Griffin can avoid sacks, he can make some plays downfield. Get more NCAA football betting picks from Matt at Touthouse.com

TCU may be better off allowing him to step up and make throws as opposed to breaking containment off the tackles and run wherever he wants as he’s as dangerous as any player in the open field. The Horned Frogs defense is as good as it gets so Baylor definitely needs to execute as it is not going to get anything given to them. Pr maybe they will. “We’ve had three bad practices this week,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson said. “No enthusiasm.” Apparently, the Bears are not being taken seriously.

As mentioned, the Bears defense has been rock solid thus far. TCU has a very veteran offense led by senior Andy Dalton but he has not been as sharp as many had expected. Dalton is ranked 55th in total offense and 54th in passing efficiency in the country and those are pretty average rankings for a four-year starter. The Bears will need to pressure Dalton and keep him from being able to make positive yardage out of busted plays as he has the ability to use his feet as well.

Baylor is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record and it is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams coming off a double-digit victory while going 8-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog. TCU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. 3* Baylor Bears