NFL Picks Week 1: The Top Underdogs Who Can Win Outright
With the NFL season set to kickoff Thursday night it's time to make some picks.
Vegas has anointed the Giants the biggest favorites in week one and apparently shown little faith in the Lions, making them the biggest underdogs.
Could the the new-look Lions buck the odds and win outright in week one against a Bears team littered with problems?
Here's a look at the probability of the underdogs in all 16 games pulling off the upset against the favorites.
Oakland at Tennessee
1 of 16
Line: Titans at -6
Upset Probability: 1 out of 10 (Lowest)
The Raiders are expecting Jason Campbell to play in the opener, but Oakland will be without the services of reliable runner Michael Bush. That means unreliable running back Darren McFadden, who has been nursing a hamstring injury in the preseason, will have to produce. The offensive line will also have to show improvement and keep Campbell from taking a pounding.
That's a lot to ask.
The Titans no-name defense figures to be stout against the run this season and Chris Johnson will be fresh and ready to go against the Raiders defense. A productive outing by Vince Young could lead to an easy win for Tennessee.
Arizona at St. Louis
2 of 16
Line: Cardinals at -4
Upset Probability: 2 of 10 (Very Low)
The Rams are starting a rookie quarterback and find themselves in tatters on both sides of the ball. Aside from Steven Jackson, St. Louis has few sure-things ready to contribute against the Cardinals.
Arizona has plenty of problems of it's own, but what better way to figure things out than by playing the woeful Rams? Derek Anderson should impress in his debut to lead the Cards to a much needed win in the opener.
Carolina at New York Giants
3 of 16
Line: New York Giants at -6.5
Upset Probability: 2 of 10 (Very Low)
The Panthers have battled injuries on the offensive line in the preseason, which could translate to a slow start for the normally potent rushing attack. Matt Moore enters his first season as a starting quarterback looking over his should after his preseason struggles. Jimmy Clausen might not be ready yet, but he will be soon.
The Giants will lean heavily on the offense this season and should be able to move the ball against the Panthers. Eli Manning has the weapons around him to produce and the emergence of a running game from either Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs could help New York coast to an easy win in the opener.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Cincinnati at New England
4 of 16
Line: Patriots at -4.5
Upset Probability: 3 of 10 (Low)
The Bengals have tons of star power, but that doesn't mean it will lead to production in week one. Cincinnati will likely try to take advantage of New England's secondary and could expose Carson Palmer to pressure from the front seven. Even though it's a contract year for him, Cedric Benson isn't likely to get off to a great start against the Pats.
The Patriots have managed to circle the wagons despite Tom Brady's ongoing contract negotiations and Randy Moss complaining about not being loved. Bill Belichick's team should be anxious to get on the field and attack the Bengals early and often through the air.
San Diego at Kansas City
5 of 16
Line: Chargers at -4.5
Upset Probability: 3 of 10 (Low)
The Chiefs offense remains a work in progress as week one approaches. Matt Cassel's ability to run a team effectively is still a question and the arrival of Thomas Jones could spell less touches for the dynamic Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs will have to find a way to get to Philip Rivers if they want to even hang close.
The Chargers are far from perfect, but an aggressive defense and a loaded offense is difficult to overlook. Despite the continued absence of Vincent Jackson, San Diego has Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates at Rivers' disposal, along with play-making running back Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. The Chargers simply have too much firepower for the Chiefs to contain.
Dallas at Washington
6 of 16
Line: Cowboys at -3.5
Upset Probability: 4 of 10 (Low)
The Redskins have been distracted by the Albert Haynesworth situation and hindered by the injury to Donovan McNabb. Although the quarterback is expected to make his debut against a familiar foe Sunday, there are still plenty of questions for the Redskins offense that must be answered. Aside from the 67 year-old Joey Galloway, McNabb doesn't have a reliable No. 2 option at receiver.
The Cowboys have plenty of weapons at receiver for Tony Romo and two reliable running backs. Unless the Redskins defensive line plays out of its mind, Dallas should be able to move up and down the field in Landover.
San Francisco at Seattle
7 of 16
Line: 49ers at -3
Upset Probability: 4 of 10 ( Low)
Pete Carroll's move to the lovely Pacific Northwest might be reason for enthusiasm, but the Seahawks have problems and aren't likely to find answers in the first game against the 49ers. The lack of a running game could spell doom for fragile Matt Hasselback.
The 49ers are a tough defensive team and have a fresh Frank Gore in the backfield. If there was ever a game for Alex Smith to shine, it's in the opener against the Seahawks secondary.
Minnesota at New Orleans
8 of 16
Line: Saints at -5
Upset Probability: 4 of 10 (Low)
The Vikings don't look quite as good as they did a few weeks ago. Brett Favre finds himself without his most reliable receiver and might not be quite ready to carry the Vikings offense in his first regular season game. Minnesota's best chance seems to lie in hoping the Saints are distracted by the hoopla surrounding Thursday night's game.
New Orleans will probably be fired up to get back to the field. Drew Brees and the Saints offense is difficult for anyone to stop, including the talented Vikings defense. New Orleans probably won't be able to run the ball, but a 300-yard game by the Most Valuable Player seems likely.
Denver at Jacksonville
9 of 16
Line: Jaguars at -2.5
Upset Probability: 6 of 10 (Decent Chance)
Maurice Jones-Drew is always the focal point of the Jaguars offense. He should be fresh in the first game, but the Broncos know where the ball is going and should be ready to load up the box and make David Garrard take to the air. Jacksonville's secondary could struggle against Kyle Orton and Denver's short passing game.
The Broncos aren't going to be able to keep up with many teams on the scoreboard this season, but the Jaguars could be an early exception. If the offense clicks, Josh McDaniels should be able to dictate the game with methodical drives keeping Jones-Drew on the sidelines.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
10 of 16
Line: Falcons at -2.5
Upset Probability: 6 of 10 (Decent Chance)
The Falcons overachieved last season and didn't do much to improve in the offseason. Despite posting an impressive 7-1 record as a favorite in 2009, Atlanta is walking into a difficult situation in week one. Aside from Roddy White, Matt Ryan still lacks a No. 2 option at receiver. The Falcons will get pushed to the brink by a scrappy Steelers squad.
Dennis Dixon's talent hasn't been enough to overcome his mistakes as of yet, but his epiphany could come at any moment. Pittsburgh is likely to pound the ball at the Falcons and concentrate on stopping Atlanta's Michael Turner. The Steelers haven't controlled the line of scrimmage in many games recently, but week one could be a different story.
Miami at Buffalo
11 of 16
Line: Dolphins at -3
Upset Probability: 7 of 10 (Good Chance)
The Dolphins acquired Brandon Marshall to give first-year starter Chad Henne a valuable weapon at receiver. The move is likely to pay dividends throughout the season, but it might take a while for chemistry to develop.
Rookie C.J. Spiller played well in the preseason and appears ready to challenge for Rookie of the Year honors. The exciting running back gives Chan Gailey's offense a versatile weapon able to impact the game as a receiver and a rusher. The scrappy Bills get a good performance from Spiller and Trent Edwards and pull of the upset.
Baltimore at New York Jets
12 of 16
Line: Jets at -2
Upset Probability: 7 of 10 (Good Chance)
The Jets have gone Hollywood on Hard Knocks, providing viewers with a glimpse into one of the more entertaining teams in the NFL. The reality show and the contract talks with Darrelle Revis provided a distraction that kept observers from focusing on the Jets problems. It starts with Mark Sanchez, who at minimum must be a capable game-manager.
The Ravens secondary has huge question marks, but Sanchez hasn't demonstrated the ability to take advantage of opportunities on a consistent basis. There's no reason to believe it will happen in the opener. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco has shown he can be consistent even without weapons. He should get a chance to enjoy his new toys in week one.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
13 of 16
Line: Bucs at -3
Upset Probability: 9 of 10 (Excellent Chance)
The Bucs are playing at home, which probably explains why they are favored in week one. It might be the one of the few times the teams will be favored all season long, but there just isn't enough proven talent on either side of the ball to expect Tampa to beat anyone, even the Browns.
Cleveland might not be very talented, but there are veterans at key positions, especially quarterback with Jake Delhomme ready to begin his career in Cleveland. Jerome Harrison should be able to run the ball against the Bucs defense, leading to a mild upset in week one.
Green Bay at Philadelphia
14 of 16
Line: Green Bay at -3
Upset Probability: 10 of 10 (It's gonna happen)
The Packers are a trendy Super Bowl pick, but enter week one with young players playing in key positions. The biggest problem could be in the secondary, with Atary Bigby and Al Harris out with injuries. Aaron Rodgers might have to win the game all by himself for Green Bay, which has struggled in games at Philly in recent years.
Kevin Kolb figures to throw the ball all over the field Sunday and he should be able to move the chains against the Packers' secondary if he gets time. Philadelphia has enough firepower to outscore Green Bay in week one and win what should be an exciting game.
Indianapolis at Houston
15 of 16
Line: Colts at -2
Upset Probability: 10 of 10 (It's gonna happen)
The Colts have had the Texans' number throughout history, but that might be about to end. Peyton Manning has weapons all over the field, but a questionable run defense might be their undoing Sunday.
Arian Foster looks to exploit a run defense that ranked 24th in the NFL in 2009 and Matt Schuab should be able to throw the ball all day long if he gets time. The Texans are hungry for the playoffs and a win over the Colts in week one would be a huge early statement.
Detroit at Chicago
16 of 16
Line: Bears at -6.5
Upset Probability: 10 of 10 (It's gonna happen)
The Bears offensive line was horrible last season and appears to be even worse this season. Making matters worse, Jay Cutler and his receivers aren't quite on the same page yet in Mike Martz's complicated offense. Chicago is likely to experience more growing pains in week one.
Matthew Stafford has more weapons around him this season, including dynamic rookie Jahvid Best. The Bears secondary is a weakness that could be exploited by NFL teams all season long. The Lions clearly shouldn't be six point underdogs, and they will prove it by pulling off the upset Sunday.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")