Liver s Week 14 NFL Picks: Cowboys to Cover Against Lions

In the past, Dallas was a dangerous place to be when the Cowboys were losing.

Productivity suffered across the board, and, more significantly, bar fights increased.

Now it looks like it's Mavericks fans we need to worry about, as last night your humble narrator got into a dustup with some fat prick who couldn't deal with the fact that Josh Howard is NOT a superstar and Don Nelson CARES NOTHING about winning NBA championships.

I despise fat people for letting their bodies go—but I despise stupid people even more for letting their brains go.

Lesson for all you kids reading this (and I pray to God you’re not):

When a fat boy with a fat face swings from a sitting position with a beer in one hand, it’s usually not going to be difficult to (a) block the punch and (b) knock said fat boy off his seat.

Imagine a hippo stuck in quicksand—amusing but hopeless.

Luckily, I was at my usual bar and the fat boy got the boot. Unluckily, I celebrated my meager alpha-male victory by getting shitcanned and yakking in the bathroom.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Bennett Salvatore, ALL college presidents and BCS conference commissioners, Roger Goodell, and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week against the spread: 8-8

2007 record against the spread: 86-96-10

In the words of my favorite corrupt official, Captain Louis Renault, “I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here.”
 

Sunday, December 9, 2007
 
Carolina (+10 1⁄2) at Jacksonville

Kudos to Jacksonville for not using the refs as an excuse in their loss against the Colts—even though they could've made a good case.

The Jags are still in excellent position for one of the AFC Wild Card berths—and need to show it by pounding a bad Carolina Panthers team that just got its FIRST HOME WIN LAST WEEK.

Vinny Testaverde is listed as questionable with a 44-year-old head and body.

Pick: Carolina
 

Dallas at Detroit (+ 10 1⁄2)

At last—the Jon Kitna Bowl.

For those who don’t know or remember, a 2-13 Lions team came to Dallas in Week 17 of the 2006 season and embarrassed the Cowboys 39-31. Then JON F***ING KITNA went on a Seattle radio show and laughed about how easy it'd been to pick apart the Dallas defense—especially Roy Williams, Bradie James, and Terrence Newman.

In fairness, Kitna did have a point—but you DO NOT call guys out in public...especially when you PLAY THEM NEXT SEASON.

Kitna’s ignorance of standard etiquette will come back to haunt him this weekend. But I’m glad he said what he said—because at least it has the Dallas defense playing with a chip on its shoulder.

Normally a matchup with a fading team like the Lions would be a trap game, but the revenge factor—coupled with an injury to Detroit WR Roy Williams and the fact the Lions can’t rush for 29 yards most weeks—has the Cowboys smelling blood. 

10.5 points is an insane lay on a road favorite, but as Joel Goodson would say, “Sometimes you gotta say what the f**k. Make your move.”

Pick: Cowboys
 

Oakland (+10) at Green Bay

The Packers may have fallen to the Cowboys, but they can still secure the other NFC bye and set themselves up for a return to Texas Stadium on January 20th.

JaMarcus Russell finally stepped on an NFL field last weekend, and could see more action for the Raiders this Sunday. Brett Farve will start, but at least the Packers know that going to Aaron Rodgers in an emergency isn’t tantamount to conceding defeat.

Pick: Green Bay
 

San Diego at Tennessee (PK)

The Chargers announced that Norv “McFly” Turner will be their head coach next year. And who says FOUR-YEAR CONTRACTS aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on?

I guess when you’re an idiot like Chargers GM A.J. Smith, you can’t be too sure.

What happens if the Chargers go one-and-done again in the playoffs this year? Can’t blame Marty for that one.

The Amazing Vince and the Titans ended their three-game losing streak last week, but the Chargers have been on an upward arc since their sluggish start. 

Pick: San Diego
 

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Philadelphia

Eli Manning and his DUH face came through last week against the Bears—and not a moment too soon, as the Giants' ship was starting to reel.

A.J. Feeley showed last weekend that he’s still A.J. Feeley...so it looks like Donovan McNabb might get one more home start.

That should make the Filthy animals happy—after all, they get to boo him one more time before he’s gone.

Pick: Giants
 

Tampa Bay at Houston (+3)

Luke McCown came through for the Bucs last week in place of the injured Jeff Garcia, and Tampa seems to be in firm control of the NFC South at 8-4.

As for Houston—the Texans' injury-riddled season needs to end quickly.

Pick: Tampa Bay
 

Miami (+7) at Buffalo

The Bills—YES the 6-6 Buffalo Bills—are in the AFC Wild Card hunt...for another week at least.

The 0-12 Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, are looking more and more like the first 0-16 in NFL history.

Pick: Buffalo
 

St. Louis (+6) at Cincinnati

My bloody mary needs refreshing.

Pick: St. Louis
 

Minnesota at San Francisco (+9)

I know Minnesota is in a three-way tie for the last NFC Wild Card spot...but isn’t Tarvaris Jackson still the Vikes' QB?

True. they do have Adrian Peterson and a good run defense—but in the playoffs you need good QB play.

Please, San Francisco, start winning FOR CHRIST SAKES. Think of the rest of the league for once—and that first-round pick you're giving to the Patriots.

Maybe I’ll have a white Russian instead and go piss on someone’s rug.

Pick: San Francisco
 

Arizona (+7) at Seattle

Of all the 6-6 teams fighting for the final “Thanks for showing up, now we kill you” NFC Wild Card spot, Arizona looks like the best.

Of course, when the other two contenders are Detroit and Minnesota, that’s not saying much.

Seattle has the lead in the NFC West at 8-4, but a loss to the rival Cardinals would make it a race again.

Pick: Seattle
 

Pittsburgh (+10 1⁄2) at New England

To put it simply: the NFL's best offense (Patriots) versus the NFL's best defense (Steelers).

These two teams could easily see each other in the playoffs, so don’t expect too many gimmick plays.

The Pats have shown vulnerability against aggressive pass rushes, gave up 160 yards on the ground against Baltimore, and have shown little or no running game of their own. Neither Baltimore nor Philly could close the deal in part because of poor quarterback play—but Big Ben should be better against the New England D.

If the Steelers don’t turn the ball over, they'll have an excellent chance to pull the upset.

Pick: Pittsburgh
 

Cleveland at N.Y. Jets (+3)

The Browns need to win to keep their miracle season alive—and further ruin the dreams of Cowboys fans (myself included) who'd once salivated at the prospecting of using Cleveland's first-round pick.

The Jets, meanwhile, are hard at work preparing to be the first NFL team to give up 100 points in a game when they visit Foxboro next weekend.

Pick: Cleveland
 

Kansas City (+6 1⁄2) at Denver

Time for BEER. God the AFC West stinks.

Pick: Denver
 

Indianapolis at Baltimore (+ 9)

If the Ravens thought the Patriots got some favorable calls Monday night, they’ll really be crying when they see what kind of calls the Colts get.

It’s disgusting to joke about the fact that EVERYONE KNOWS that certain teams get preferential treatment. If the Ravens get ANY calls, it'll be a small miracle.

Pick: Baltimore
 

Monday, December 10, 2007
 
New Orleans at Atlanta (+4)

Make that a shot of Jack Daniels with a Corona back, sweetheart—and let me whisper some lies into that delicious-looking ear.

What game?

Houston's decision to pass on Reggie “Sure I’ll take your money” Bush looks better each week. Maybe Charley Casserly isn’t so dumb after all.

Then again, I think Texans fans would still rather have Vince Young.

Oh, New Orleans and Atlanta are playing? Where’s the mute button?

Pick: New Orleans