NFL Prime Picks:A Weekly Series Devoted To Beating The Point Spreads,Week One

Thursday Night Football on NBC kicks off the season as the Vikings seek revenge on the New Orleans Saints.

This will be a re-match of the NFC Championship Game, which the Saints won on their way to a Super Bowl victory.

This is a dangerous game for Minnesota in my opinion. Brett Favre is not ready for prime time quite yet and could be hurt if not ready for bruising NFL hits.

Take the Saints as solid 5.5 point favorites at home. The running game alone, with many healthy bodies, will open up the passing alleys for Drew Brees, who is the new Brett Favre.

On Sunday, Miami travels to Buffalo and is favored by three. This is a lock pick this week, and you should play the heck out of this game. Miami's offense will prove too much for the Bills to defend early in the season.

Chicago, on the other hand, is at home and will have difficulty covering almost a touchdown against the up-start Lions, who will improve this season. Take the Lions and get almost seven points. The Lions could win this game outright with the right breaks.

The Titans will also have their hands full with the newer look Oakland Raiders who should keep this game close, despite the No. 1 fantasy league player everywhere, Chris Johnson. I like the Raiders to fight in this game and also to cover 6.5 to 7 points.

This next game I feel is a trap to New England bettors, with the Patriots favored by four. Cincinnati could very well win this game. Straight up, I have New England winning by three, and I will stick to that.

Take the Bengals and the four points. T.O. is always in superb shape to start the season, with a Jerry Rice like regimen. Terrell Owens could shock New England with a couple of big catches.

The New York Giants will dispatch Carolina by the required seven points or more and open the season on a good note at home.

I have Atlanta taking advantage of a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team and the Falcons getting a win here. Only 1.5 points to deal with, so try the Falcons in this one. The Steelers are seldom home underdogs. Take advantage of a telling sign!

You get two points with an improved Cleveland team traveling to Tampa Bay to play the hapless Bucs. I'm shocked you only have to give two points here, as Cleveland should rock.

Jacksonville is at home against Denver, and the decisions made by Denver lately make me doubt this team will do much in the next couple of seasons except achieve mediocrity. The Jaguars are favored by two and that should be a cover by the home team.

The Colts open against Houston, who always starts slow, and this trend will continue as Peyton Manning does not usually play at that slow-start level. Take the Colts in this one. It's over by halftime. You give only two points.

Here's an upset special, as the Rams play Arizona close and beat the four point spread. Don't laugh. It could happen.

If Green Bay is the power house everyone says they are, then they should wipe out Philadelphia in the first game they play on the road. With that said, I will take the Eagles and get three points in Veterans Stadium. Nice.

The 49ers are looking to make a first game statement to the West as they beat Seattle by at least three points on the road.

The Cowboys will over power McNabb and the Washington Redskins in the opener and the points won't be a problem here, with Dallas only giving 3.5.  This is lock number two this week.

On Monday night, we have two good games starting with the Ravens taking it to the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets are only favored by one at home, which doesn't instill a lot of confidence. I like Baltimore in this close one.

In the second Monday night affair, Kansas City defends against division rival San Diego. Is Arrowhead still a feared place to visit? It used to be.

I think Kansas City has some weapons and did improve towards the end of last year. Four and a half is tempting enough to hope it's one of those field-goal-decides-it games, maybe in overtime. Take the Chiefs.

Good luck in Week One of the NFL Season, as I expect to do very well.

NFL Prime Picks is a weekly series devoted to beating the point spreads.