Fantasy Football: Draft Strategy by Position

Quick, how many different unique outcomes could result from a 12-team fantasy draft? Seriously,someone be a hero and do the math on that. I got a buffalo nickel that says that it’s a pretty crazy number (and that Matt Leinart will check down).

Sorry everyone, if you came looking for the perfect draft, you’re not going to find it here…or anywhereelse. But understanding where guys are going (average draft position/ADP) and knowing how to read adraft on the fly can help you optimize your draft.

Here are some thoughts on draft strategy – by position – for those still cramming:

Running Backs: RB is deep this year, but there are too many question marks for me to wait too long.  Call me old school, but I can’t stomach going WR/WR or QB/WR. I try to grab one of my top ten (AP, CJ,Ray Ray, MJD, Turner, Gore, Steven Jackson, Benson, Grant, D-Williams). I’m a bit woozy with Beanie Wells as my RB1, even if my WRs are Andre Johnson and Roddy White.

If you don’t grab one of those top ten, you better get Beanie, LeSean McCoy or Pierre Thomas. Guys like Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, or Jahvid Best may work out, but they’re scary RB1s. One draft goal should be to minimize “ifs” as much as possible, and these are some big “ifs” (props to pal J.M. for that draft insight.)

If you find yourself with a RB1 outside of the top ten, draft heavy on RB later in the draft. Mix it upbetween the various question marks (injury, age, time-shares) and hope you guess right a couple times.

Wide Receivers: Go with WR/RB/WR or RB/WR/WR. Guys Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Sims-Walker, Pierre Garcon, Hines Ward, Jeremy Maclin, Johnny Knox and Mike Wallace are all great WR2sthat are usually available in the fifth round or later. Package them with a WR1 from the first or  second round and you’re sitting alright at the position.

There’s a lot out there about the lack of “elite” WRs, but I’m walking away comfortable with my WR1as anyone out of Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Megatron, White, Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall and DeSean Jackson.

For leagues that start three WR, make sure to plug your WR3 hole before it’s too late. Take a look atmost rankings and the “ifs” start to show between the 25th and 30th ranked WRs.

Tight Ends: Two words: Jermichael Finley. I’ll reach for him as early as the fourth round of every draft,ahead of guys like Clark and Gates. His athleticism makes him a huge part of the league’s best offense. Ialso wouldn’t argue with taking Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark or Vernon Davis in the fourth or fifth rounds.

If I don’t get one of those four, I’m waiting as long as possible for a guy like Chris Cooley, Oakland’s Zach Miller or another low-ADP/high-ceiling TE. There are a ton of those types this year.

Quarterback: I’ve mocked around with taking a QB early in the draft (if you’re going to do it, Rodgers, Brees and Peyton are the only ones to jump on in the first three rounds.) But, the QB “sure things” still leave me uncomfortable with my WRs and RBs.

I’d rather wait on guys like Kevin Kolb, Jay Cutler, or Joe Flacco in the sixth or seventh round, or even The Other Manning in the eighth or ninth. Or, wait longer and grab Big Ben to pair with Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Chad Henne or Alex Smith, ride-out one of the latter QBs until the former’s suspension is done. But, you have to spot any other owners going for the same thing (or just know if there’s a Steelers fan in your league), because you could be in trouble if you lose out on the Big Ben part of that equation.

DEF and Kicker: Gotta be honest, I don’t care about either, and will even avoid drafting them in leagues where it’s within the rules.

On paper, I’d love to have the Jets defense, but there’s just too much uncertainty and too much opportunity to capitalize on good match-ups throughout the season for me not to stream DEF. I’ll ride the hot hand, but I’d have to be bowled over by a DEF to give it a bench spot over a position player during a bye week.

I’m actually a strong advocate for removing them from roster requirements altogether. Indoors, nice weather, yadda yadda. Just pull up a list of starting NFL kickers, close your eyes, point at your monitor and draft that guy. Or the next guy. Or the next one. Really, it doesn’t matter.

If you do fall flat in your draft, don’t give up hope. Focus on the trade market. Shoot me an e-mail ifyou have any questions on potential trades.

Everything posted on this blog is my personal opinion, and absolutely right. Not just a Hat Rack, people.

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