Fantasy Football: Two Quarterbacks Who Are Overvalued By Their ADP

This year, on average, there are fifteen quarterbacks drafted within the first 100 picks, that are separated into two tiers.  The first seven are taken within the first three rounds, then there is a lull until the bottom 5th/early 6th round, where the QB drafting continues. However, there are two players in that group of fifteen that I think would be wise to stay away from for several reasons.

(ADP, or average draft position, is the average draft rankings of six well-known fantasy football websites.)

Brett Favre (ADP 64, 8th QB Taken)

Well, even though he had what could be his best overall statistical year in 2009, there were already several question marks coming into this season.  First, it was obvious during the off-season that his ankle was not going to be 100% by week one.  Second, they didn't do anything to improve their pass blocking to protect Mr. Favre. (Including letting Chester Taylor go in free agency, a very good pass blocking RB) Third, Percy Harvin's migranes are going to affect him for the entire season, with no way of knowing when they will put him out of commission.  And now, their #1 receiver Sidney Rice is going to be out for at least half of the year, if not more.  They did just acquire Greg Camarillo from the Dolphins, but he's no Sidney Rice.  Adding to the fact that Favre is 41 and can break down at any moment, it all adds up to avoiding if at all possible.

Matt Ryan (ADP 74, 13th QB Taken)

I do not think that Matt Ryan is a bad QB by any means.  He is a solid player who will only get better.  However, for fantasy purposes, he should be considered a low #2.  The Atlanta Falcons are a run-first team.  Michael Turner should put up monster numbers, as he was slowed down by an injury last year, and the time off actually should give him fresh legs for the upcoming season.  They have one playmaker at receiver in Roddy White, but his matchups the first half of the year are very tough, and Tony Gonzalez is in the twilight of his career.  Ryan is a servicable guy, but he has a low upside, and you would be better off drafting somebody else.

Drafting a QB early isn't as bad a play as it was in years past.  But staying away from low-upside players like the ones listed above is very sound strategy.

Next article: Three Running Backs Who Are Overvalued By Their ADP

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