Statman’s Deep Thoughts: If Stats Could Talk

Seriously, how do the experts even start to come up with their draft lists?  It seems by the end of August all of them are pretty parallel.  These rankings are strictly based on when they believe players will be taken.  That means draft lists are not a predictor of value only position.  This is important because most managers are living in the matrix and think better players go early and bad players go later.  That couldn’t be further from the truth.  These guys were generally taken in the first two rounds of 2009:

Matt Forte

Steve Slaton

Ladainian Tomlinson

Brandon Jacobs

Brian Westbrook

Ronnie Brown

Michael Turner

Steve Smith

Steven Jackson

Calvin Johnson

Marion Barber

Clinton Portis

Not a bad list but all these guys, whether injured or not, underachieved based on their draft position.  Some have even dropped off the map in 2010.  Slaton, Forte, Tomlinson, Jacobs, Westbrook, and Portis were all considered fantasy RB studs last year by all the experts.  So what happened?  You could say that a lot of the guys listed above had miles on the odometer minus Forte, Slaton, and Calvin J.  Forte averaged less than 4.0 yards a carry in 2008 which should have been a huge red flag for a guy going #3 overall.  Steve Slaton was a completely different player in 2009 and the fumbles might have gotten in his head.  It’s tough to hit a hole quickly when you’re thinking about losing the football.  Calvin J was the factor of an offense that couldn’t move the ball.  Stafford was in and out of the line-up and struggled to get the ball deep.

My advice:

There is no crystal ball or law of probabilities that will get you to the right answer all the time, but there is a pattern that can be followed.  This is my motto. 

“Stay young with RB’s.  Stay old with QB’s, Think QB’s for WR’s and TE’s.”

Stay Young with RB’s

Here is a list of the top 20 RB’s in yards per touch last year.  (When they touched the ball, how many yards did they gain on average.)

1. Justin Forsett 6.25
2. Reggie Bush 6.20
3. Jamaal Charles 6.16
4. Chris Johnson 6.13
5. Ray Rice 6.13
6. Tashard Choice 6.09
7. Darren Sproles 6.09
8. Felix Jones 5.96
9. Pierre Thomas 5.89
10. Correll Buckhalter 5.84
11. Arian Foster 5.65
12. DeAngelo Williams 5.59
13. Frank Gore 5.43
14. Ahmad Bradshaw 5.35
15. Jonathon Stewart 5.32
16. Leon Washington 5.31
17. Brian Westbrook 5.29
18. Chester Taylor 5.27
19. Rashard Mendenhall 5.13
20. Adrian Peterson 5.10

A lot of these guys also caught passes but this clearly shows the most explosive players in the NFL.  I don’t think there is one guy on this list over 30 years of age minus Westbrook, Buckhalter, and Taylor.  Enough said.

Stay old with QB’s

Here is a list of the top 10 QB’s in points per attempt. (How many points they scored in a standard fantasy league for every pass thrown.)

1. Drew Brees .553
2. Aaron Rodgers .550
3. Philip Rivers .517
4. Brett Favre .504
5. Ben Roethlisberger .492
6. Donavan McNabb .483
7. Peyton Manning .476
8. Eli Manning .472
9. Tony Romo .461
10. Kevin Kolb .461

Most everyone on this list was already established going into 2009.  The only player that pops up on the radar is Kevin Kolb and he only threw close to 100 passes all year.  Don’t mess with QB’s that have never proven themselves.  It’s much too hard of a position to play.

Think QB’s for WR’s and TE’s

Here is a list of the top WR in points per reception. (How many points did they score every time they caught the ball.)

1. Jacoby Jones 2.73 (Schaub)

2. Roy Williams 2.67 (Romo)

3. Mike Wallace 2.64 (Roethlisberger)

4. Robert Meachem 2.64 (Brees)

5. Sam Hurd 2.58 (Romo)

6. DeSean Jackson 2.57 (McNabb/Kolb)

7. Randy Moss 2.46 (Brady)

8. Vincent Jackson 2.42 (Rivers)

9. Miles Austin 2.38 (Romo)

10. Hakeem Nicks 2.36 (Manning)

11. Lee Evans 2.35 (Edwards)

12. James Jones 2.31 (Rodgers)

13. Chris Chambers 2.29 (Rivers/Cassel)

14. Mohamed Massaquoi 2.29 (Anderson/Quinn)

15. Marques Colston 2.28 (Brees)

16. Devin Aromashodu 2.42 (Cutler)

17. Chad Ochocinco 2.16 (Palmer)

18. Antonio Bryant 2.15 (Johnson/Freeman)

19. Sidney Rice 2.13 (Favre)

20. Roddy White 2.11 (Ryan)

21. Kenny Britt 2.09 (Young)

22. Pierre Garcon 2.07 (Manning)

23. Andre Johnson 2.05 (Schaub)

24. Mike Sims-walker 2.04 (Garrard)

25. Terrell Owens 2.03 (Edwards)

13 of the top 15 guys on this list came from a QB in the top 10.  The bottom line is that 60+% of the QB’s in the league will have a hard time getting the ball to their WR’s. 

TE list:

1. Ben Watson 2.42 (Brady)

2. Vernon Davis 2.23 (Smith)

3. Visanthe Shiancoe 2.19 (Favre)

4. Antonio Gates 2.07 (Rivers)

5. Kevin Boss 2.05 (Manning)

6. Owen Daniels 2.04 (Schaub)

7. Mercedes Lewis 1.99 (Garrard)

8. John Carlson 1.94 (Hasselbeck)

9. Brent Celek 1.90 (McNabb/Kolb)

10. Greg Olson 1.82 (Cutler)

Again look at the quality QB’s on this list.  It’s always a little easier to get the ball to the TE but hopefully you see the pattern.  Stick to the numbers, they don’t lie.