Oakland Raiders: A Framework for 2010 Expectations

When a person comes from a great family, often the parents will advise that person of the outstanding achievements of their forefathers. That same discussion can be applied to the Oakland Raiders.

Their heritage is a commitment to excellence. Embracing the pursuit of excellence would restore the continuity of the history of the Oakland Raiders franchise.

Sometimes young people are not aware of the history of an organization or of a franchise. They sometimes have a vague understanding. The elders need to inform the young people.

Here is an attempt to inform. Look at the graph of the John Madden-Tom Flores era, starting in 1978.

Madden coached only the first year of the 16 game regular season.

Flores coached from 1979 to 1987. His final coaching year with the Raiders had five wins.

Here is the data:

Oakland	delta O	Coach
9		Madden
9	0	Flores
11	2	Flores
7	-4	Flores
8	1	Flores
12	4	Flores
11	-1	Flores
12	1	Flores
8	-4	Flores
5	-3	Flores

Madden-Flores Average Win Total

During the Madden-Flores era, we observe that there were two years when the Oakland Raiders had 12 wins. Also, there were two years with 11 wins. That era had a quad-modal distribution. In other words, there were two years with 12 wins; two years with 11 wins; two years with nine wins; and two years with eight wins.

The average number of wins during that era is 9.2. The minimum number of wins was five, in the last year of Flores career with the Oakland Raiders.

A Goal for 2010

A reasonable goal for the 2010 Raiders, I believe, is to aim for at least the average of the Madden-Flores era. A goal of at least nine wins would be impressive, moving up from five to nine.

It's Been Done

It is possible to have an increase of four more wins during the regular season. If the Oakland Raiders "forefathers" did it, this generation of Oakland Raiders can do it, too.

For example, in 1983, 1990, 1998 and 2000, the Oakland Raiders increased their total number of wins by four games. The coaches during those years of that outstanding increase were: Flores in 1983 and 1990, Shell in 1998, and Gruden in 2000

A Five Win Increase Makes History

The greatest increase in wins for a regular season is four games. No Oakland Raider coach has attained a five game increase. So, Tom Cable, Hue Jackson and the other coaches would make history in 2010 if they can attain a five game increase in 2010. This means that the Oakland Raiders should aim for 10 wins in 2010 in order to make history.

Finally, a framework has been established. The expectations are reasonable because the Oakland Raiders "forefathers" did it. We expect that the descendants of the forefathers can do it, too.

Just win, baby!