Fantasy Football: The Three Most Over & Under Valued Running Backs

As owners around the world will atest, th life span of a fantasy football running back can be extremely short-lived. Remember the days when Shaun Alexander was a first round pick? Frustrated owners probably took him right after their true target, Larry Johnson, was off the board.

The average career of a RB in the NFL is just three years, and often less than that in fantasy circles. With most of the backfields in the league turning into some sort of a timeshare, let's take a look at the top five most over & under valued backs currently being drafted in standard leagues.

Overvalued: CJ Spiller, Buffalo

Spiller's potential is undeniable. Before being drafted by the Bills ninth overall, I was ready to proclaim him fantasy football's rookie of the year. In addition to playing behind a broken offensive line, Spiller will have to split time with incumbents Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch assuming that the latter isn't traded. Having said that, Spiller has a prime opportunity to assert himself as a major piece of the Buffalo offense while the two aforementioned are dealing with injuries.

I fully expect the speedster out of Clemson to be a major fantasy factor down the road, but it's going to be awfully tough in his first year to get anything going. A horrible passing game, cold weather, and a brutal division are three prime reasons to avoid him.

Undervalued: Marion Barber, Dallas

Do not interpret this as my ringing endorsement of Marion Barber, because it's not. However, the former Pro Bowler is currently being selected much later than he deserves in most standard leagues. The power back will go back to his "closer" role, but that doesn't mean he'll get less touches. Expect him to be a focal part of the Dallas attack as he makes the opposing defense stack the front line leaving the secondary vulnerable.

MB3 is finally healthy after playing most of last season with nagging injuries. Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett has stated that # 24 will be more involved in the red-zone attack as well, so look for Barber to get into the end zone more than he did in '09. 

Overvalued: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City

I understand how easy it is to see the appeal with Jamaal Charles, believe me. What's not to like about him? He's young, has good size, possesses quick feet, and seemingly possesses a nose for the end zone. Unfortunately for both he and his owners, there's a few problems with him that are out of his control. 

#1: His team. Playing for the Kansas City Chiefs is no fun task and this year probably won't be any different. Last year, the team's offensive line struggled mightily to protect QB Matt Cassel which allowed opposing defenses to concentrate on the running game. If Charles is going to find success, both of those things must improve.

#2: His coach. Todd Haley hasn't exactly been providing ringing endorsements of the kid. Despite putting up very nice stats in the preseason thus far, it seems he is just now beginning to get out of the coach's doghouse. Hopefully this isn't reflected in his touches to begin the season.

#3: His competition. The team brought in aging veteran Thomas Jones & drafted exciting WR/RB Dexter McCluster. Despite the addition of the latter, I'm more concerned about the coaching staff riding Jones longer than they should, limiting Charles' upside. 

Undervalued: Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions

Despite many brushing off the Lions' offensive attack, fantasy owners should take a closer look at the situation. With a second-year Matt Stafford under center, a healthy WR Calvin Johnson outside and free agent signee Nate Burleson on the other side, there should be plenty of room to run freely for electrifying rookie RB Jahvid Best. 

The Lions traded up to get a second first round selection to take Best, so we know that the front office already likes him. He's certainly lived up to the hype as he's looked every bit as good as advertised. With an improved offensive line, Best is very capable of eclipsing double-digit TDs (rushing & receiving combined) in his inaugural year. 

Overvalued: Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers

Willie Parker's departure from the team and no-clear cut #2 make Rashard Mendenhall the man in Pittsburgh. One of the few backs in the league that doesn't find themselves in some sort of time share, many owners are pegging him as a first-round pick when, simply put, he's not. 

Yes, he went over 1,100 yards last season and flashed plenty of potential, but the first four weeks of the 2010 season will certainly be a test of the young man's true ability. Once QB Ben Roethlisberger does return, it won't have the same effect that it did last year as WR Santonio Holmes is now a member of the New York Jets. 

I hope that #34 proves me wrong, but I wouldn't feel comfortable pegging him as my RB1 heading into the year, much less as my first-round pick.

Undervalued: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants

As we continue to get closer to Week 1, Bradshaw's stock continues to soar. Not only is he healthy after playing last season on two bad ankles, but he's forced the Giants hand with his elevated level of play. Incumbent Brandon Jacobs has reportedly not looked as good as the smaller speedster and could move to a goal-line back type of roll to limit the wear & tear on him in an attempt to keep him healthy all year.

Some that cover the team even believe that Bradshaw is the outright favorite for carries at this point, with some projections as high as 18-20 carries a game for him. It sure would be interesting to see what type of production that could lead to as he's always been successful in a limited role. He's currently being selected in the latter rounds and I'd feel comfortable with him as a flex play or RB3 with massive upside.