Oakland Raiders Heartbeat More Stable Than the 49ers' Arrhythmia

Let's have a little fun. Let's just say that a doctor measures the heartbeat of a team.

The doctor notices a large swing from high to low in the pattern of the win chart for the San Francisco 49ers. In this playful analogy, the doctor concludes that the 49rs are more prone to failure or a "football heart attack."

The width of the interval that bounds the fluctuations of the Oakland Raiders is smaller than that of the 49ers.

Believe it or not, the doctor concludes that according to this measure the Oakland Raiders are a "healthier" team than the 49ers.

Again, there are patterns that many folks do not discern unless they build some type of model to characterize what is going on locally, globally and structurally in a given team.

Here is the raw data.

Oakland	delta O	49ers	delta 49	Year
9		2		1978
9	0	2	0	1979
11	2	6	4	1980
7	-4	13	7	1981
8	1	3	-10	1982
12	4	10	7	1983
11	-1	15	5	1984
12	1	10	-5	1985
8	-4	10	0	1986
5	-3	13	3	1987
7	2	10	-3	1988
8	1	14	4	1989
12	4	14	0	1990
9	-3	10	-4	1991
7	-2	14	4	1992
10	3	10	-4	1993
9	-1	13	3	1994
8	-1	11	-2	1995
7	-1	12	1	1996
4	-3	13	1	1997
8	4	12	-1	1998
8	0	4	-8	1999
12	4	6	2	2000
10	-2	12	6	2001
11	1	10	-2	2002
4	-7	7	-3	2003
5	1	2	-5	2004
4	-1	4	2	2005
2	-2	7	3	2006
4	2	5	-2	2007
5	1	7	2	2008
5	0	8	1	2009
	4		7
	-7		-10

Here is the graph of the win chart and the measures of change for both the Oakland Raiders and the San Francisco 49ers.

The change is measured from one year to a subsequent year by subtracting the decrease from, for example, 2008 to 2009. Note that the Oakland Raiders had five wins in 2008 and five wins in 2009. The change, then, is zero. These numbers are calculated for both teams, for the time interval 1978 to 2009.

Observations

1 The purple graph shows more severe swings than the red graph. The purple graph represents the change, from one year to a subsequent year for the 49ers. Similarly, the red graph shows the data for the Oakland Raiders.

2. Using this measure and making a metaphorical comparison with a heartbeat, it can be said that the Oakland Raiders have a better or healthier heartbeat than the 49ers. The data suggests that the 49ers have a type of "arrhythmia."

3. It could be said, in a metaphorical way, that the Oakland Raiders have more stability than the 49ers, and, in a comical way, are less prone to have a heart attack or failure, overall.

4. Now that the Oakland Raiders have a better mix of talent, wise coaches and more, it is a sure sign that change is going to happen. The change is going to gradually shift and then maintain the positive aspects, with less of a likelihood of large swings or drops in performance.

5. Take a look at the data and make your observations. It is a reasonable task for fans and sports writers to engage in. The NFL publishes the data. Therefore, the data should be used and analyzed more fully. Otherwise, there is a tremendous waste of money to produce a resource that folks do not fully use or understand.

6. There is work to be done for both the Oakland Raiders, and for the writers and analysts.

7. What do you see? What observation can you make?

8. Although the Oakland Raiders have had challenges for about seven years, that pattern is broken. The documentation for this conjecture is that the Oakland Raiders have two back-to-back wins during the 2010 preseason. Defeating the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears is a sure sign of positive change.

9. This model suggests that once there is positive change for the Oakland Raiders, there is a high probability that the positive change will be maintained, based on former performance from 1978 to 2009. This conjecture assumes that there will be controls on injuries and poor coaching decisions.

Finally, another metaphorical comparison could be that the 49ers have more "mood swings" than the Oakland Raiders. Because of those mood swings, the 49ers, too, are vulnerable.

Go Raiders! Attack those vulnerabilities, and just win, baby! Defeat this "moody" team!