Oakland Raiders Face The Facts and Befuddle The Foes

Some say that preseason games don't count, but you bet they celebrated when the Oakland Raiders defeated the Chicago Bears. In some ways, then, the victories do count during preseason.

Evidence of good coaching from Tom Cable, Hue Jackson, and others is what made the difference. Also, the intelligence, integrity, intensity, and stamina of the team certainly distinguished the Oakland Raiders on August 21.

Moving on and moving up

Well, let's move on and prepare to befuddle the next opponent, the San Francisco 49ers.

Here is the data of total wins per regular season:

Oakland	49ers	Year
9	2	1978
9	2	1979
11	6	1980
7	13	1981
8	3	1982
12	10	1983
11	15	1984
12	10	1985
8	10	1986
5	13	1987
7	10	1988
8	14	1989
12	14	1990
9	10	1991
7	14	1992
10	10	1993
9	13	1994
8	11	1995
7	12	1996
4	13	1997
8	12	1998
8	4	1999
12	6	2000
10	12	2001
11	10	2002
4	7	2003
5	2	2004
4	4	2005
2	7	2006
4	5	2007
5	7	2008
5	8	2009

Observations

1. The San Francisco 49ers have more severe drops in performance during selected years. For example, from 1981 to 1982 the total number of wins dropped by 10.

2. From 1988 to 1989, there was an eight point drop in the total number of wins.

3. Oakland, however, has never had a decline in performance as severe as the 49ers. The decline was seven points from 2002 to 2003.

4. The maximum for the total number of wins during a regular season is 15 for the 49ers.

5. The maximum for the total number of wins during a regular season is 12 for the Oakland Raiders.

6. An interesting fact is that the 49ers reached an all-time low in wins three different years. They only won two games in 1978, 1979, and 2004

7. Oakland had only two wins in 2006. This performance level only occurred once in the period from 1978 to 2009.

Descriptive Analysis

These observations are descriptive. They do give some insight into the performance of a team, yet more variables need to be added into the analysis in order to forecast.

One thing is certain from this data: When the 49ers have a drop in performance they have tended to have more severe declines in performance than the Oakland Raiders, when you focus on 1978 to 2009.

It is clear that the upper bound on performance for the 49ers is 15 whereas the lower bound is two wins. The lower bound has been attained more than once from 1978 to 2009.

The data is posted in this article so that the reader can make more observations.

Is there a likelihood of the Oakland Raiders defeating the 49ers? Yes. The likelihood is not certainty, but the probability of such a defeat of the neighboring team in California is well above zero.