Is Marques Colston an NFL Fantasy Football Second-Round Pick?

I have Marques Colston ranked as the 10th wide receiver on my most recent rankings (click here to view).  According to Mock Draft Central, his ADP is around 31 and he is the 11th wide receiver off the board.

The question is, is Colston a viable option in the second round of fantasy drafts?

He’s two years removed from his career year of 2007 (98 receptions for 1,202 yards and 11 TD), so there clearly is a little bit of risk involved in selecting him.  His 2008 campaign was sabotaged by injuries (he broke his thumb in Week One), holding him just 11 games (and six starts).

Last season he appeared in all 16 games (14 starts), collecting 70 catches for 1,074 yards and nine touchdowns.  Those are very good numbers, but they don’t portray an elite receiver on the surface.

In fact, overall he lacked consistent production in 2009.  He had just three games of over 90 yards; five games of over 80 yards.  Yes, it is beneficial that he scored touchdowns in eight separate games, which helped to give him a boost in the games where he didn’t compile large yard totals. 

But is that enough?

One of the biggest positives, the strength of the Saints offense, is also a negative.  Led by Drew Brees, the Saints have one of the most dynamic offenses in the game, but a lot of weapons that need to be brought into the picture.

Last season there were seven different Saints with at least 35 receptions.  When you spread the ball around that much, it’s hard to imagine one receiver stepping up and having a monster season.  Yes, Colston is the biggest fish in the pond, but there are only so many balls to go around.

While they don’t have an elite running game, you have to feed Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and others the ball in order to keep defenses off their feet.  Plus, if Thomas were to take the next step (as some believe, though that’s a story for another day), you are going to need to increase his touches, limiting the number of pass attempts.

The Saints are a significantly different offense than they were in 2007, when Colston erupted and Reggie Bush added 73 receptions.  That season, only five players had at least 35 catches.  It doesn’t sound like a big difference, but those extra receptions going to secondary players limit the ability of your stars to produce big numbers.

Don’t get me wrong—I'd love to have Colston as a low-end WR1, but unless the Saints have a change in philosophy it’s highly unlikely he returns to the lofty numbers he once experienced.  That seriously limits his potential fantasy value.

Obviously, it all depends on how your draft falls, but Colston does not appear like a good selection in the second round.  There’s a lot of risk, and I think you can get a player of similar stature and upside, though with a better chance to get the high-end value, late in round two.  I’d happily select him in the middle of round three, but not before.

What about you?  Do you view Colston as a viable second-round pick?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s 2010 rankings:

• Top 25 Quarterbacks
• Top 40 Running Backs
• Top 60 Wide Receivers
• Top 20 Tight Ends
• Top 15 Kickers

Also, make sure to check out our recent rookie rankings:

• Top 5 Rookie RB
• Top 5 Rookie QB
• Top 5 Rookie WR
• Top 3 Rookie TE

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