Toronto Maple Leafs By The Numbers: Colby Armstrong

This we know, Colby Armstrong checks hard.  For this reason alone he is going to be great fun to watch.  Other attributes include versatility and strong defensive play.  In fact, a common denominator of forwards Burke has picked up is their strong defensive play; Versteeg, Mueller, Sjostrom and Armstrong have built their game around strong defensive play.  Toronto may be a very hard team to score on this season.

Armstrong’s best showing of 22 goals was in the 2008/09 season.  In 2009/10 his teammates were LW Evander Kane and centres Rich Peverley, Jim Slater and Marty Reasoner.  Overall, a pretty bad combination except for Peverley who he only played with 20% of the time. 

As much as Armstrong is criticized for passing off the puck too often rather than shooting it, Armstrong did have a 15% shooting percentage last season, but only 101 shots.  Compare that to Kovalchuk’s 18% shooting percentage with 179 shots on goal. 

When Armstrong scored 22 goals he played with Kovalchuck, Peverley and Kozlov most of the time.  Considering Kovalchuk and Peverley like to shoot, it makes you wonder how Armstrong got 22 goals with that combination.  With only 18 assists he certainly wasn’t passing to these guys.

This leads me to believe that if Armstrong is put in the role as a shooter, he can score 20-25 goals with Toronto.  This would be exactly what Toronto needs on the second line, and if Kadri is his centre (and Kadri plays like expected), these two players would seem to compliment each other in the give and go category. 

How much fantasy is in that thinking.  Well let’s say Armstrong keeps his 15% shooting percentage because that is pretty much his career average, and takes just 40 shots more.  He’ll be at least second powerplay and second line, so is it unreasonable to think he can’t take 40 more shots?  Voila, that is a 22 goal season. 

Personally, I think Colby Armstrong is headed for a career 22 to 25 goal season.   Getting out of the Crosby/Kovalchuk shadow puts a demand on Armstrong to shoot.  It is very easy to compare Darcy Tucker and Colby Armstrong.  Tucker took a while to have a 28 goal season, but Tucker did it when he finally took 189 shots. 

By the Numbers, point projection for Colby Armstrong:

23 goals, 18 assists, 41 points

+8 goals, +4 assists over previous season (provided he is a top 6 forward)