AFC Preview and Predictions from an Average Joe

My off-season assessment and predictions on the NFL. Yes after one week of pre-season. Sorry, I have been lazy lately.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills – 4^th AFC East - Yes this team is still in Buffalo. C.J. Spiller will be a great back, but I have to wonder what direction the bills are going for here. Somebody name a player on this offense other then a running back… Lee Evans is still underestimated; he becomes the feature WR again in this horrible offense. It’s too bad; he would be great almost anywhere else. But with Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, and C.J. Spiller all still lining up in the backfield, lee Evans may just become a glorified blocker. If none of these backs are traded before to long what does Buffalo plan to do? I say line them up in the wishbone!! That would at least get then on Sport center once right? With there schedule they go 5-11 if there lucky. Chan Gailey is an upgrade over Dick Jauron, but by how much?

New England Patriots – 3^rd AFC East - You know with Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss on offense that this team can still air it out. Even with Brady practicing on the west coast, and Moss getting older, they still have a passing attack that is in the top half if not the top ten in the league. If only they had a running game to compliment it. Remember Maroney’s rookie season and all those flashes of greatness he had? What happened to those? I wonder if this team will be able to run the ball even with defenses dropping 6-7 guys into coverage all the time. On defense, they have a Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriweather who are great. But they are going to need more to step up on this defense if they want to contend in the very tough AFC east. Expect a lot of high scoring games, which is great for fantasy.

Miami Dolphins – 2^nd AFC East - Chad Henne could have gotten away with doing nothing all off season and still look better this year. The Addition of Brandon Marshall gives him a threat. Marshall at times last year made Kyle Orton look good. Ronnie Brown, and Ricky Williams are not great on there own, but as a one two punch give the dolphins a reasonable ground game. Overall looking at the roster and the offseason (besides adding Marshall) they didn’t do much to upgrade, but with Bill Parcells hanging round you know this team will be disciplined and tough. I’m picking them to be second in the AFC east.

New York Jets – 1^st AFC East - Who isn’t talking about the New York Jets this year? I am hearing more about them this year then I did the year that they traded for Brett Farve, and that is saying something. Rex Ryan is a hoot to listen too, and could defiantly find another job in the entertainment business if he so desired. Along with everybody else, I am picking them to win the AFC east. But it won’t be a walk in the park, I have some concerns, and I don’t see them making the super bowl.  Sanchez is still learning. Yeah he made it to the AFC championship game last year, but did he really? Or was that more to the credit to a great run game and a defense that reminded me more of the ravens then the ravens did. Santonio Holmes opposite of Braylon Edwards is very dangerous, and will only make Sanchez look better. I love how the jets went out of there way to give Sanchez weapons early in his career. (Take notes San Francisco) They also still have a great O-line in place to protect him, and move body’s out of the way for the running backs. But that is were I start to worry. This team succeeded on offense last year because it ran the football. Thomas Jones, last years starter is now gone, and so is his change of pace backup Leon Washington. Both let go by choice. Shonn Greene looked good, but did he look that good? And everybody is clamoring over the signing of LaDainian Tomlinson. Maybe he can help teach Shonn, but I don’t see him being nearly as lethal as everybody is hoping he will be. There are also a few holdouts on this team. I believe most will be playing by the beginning of the season, but the one I’m worried about is Darrelle Revis. He is a Top three CB in the game, and his presence allows Ryan to Blitz like crazy. I can go on for ever about this team, but how bout a summary? The Jets went out and grabbed one to many big named aging veterans that can’t contribute as well as they are hoping, and forgot to take care of the guys that got them to were they are.

 AFC West

Denver Broncos –  4^th in AFC west - For those of you who read my NFL summary’s last year, I kept telling you the Broncos were not for real, even when they were tearing off wins. My prediction finally came true and now people are starting to wonder if McDaniel’s is over his head. I do like there 1^st round pick. Demaryius Thomas should be a good receiver in this league, and they got him at the right spot. He will start from day one across from Eddie Royal, but Bronco fans, please please please don’t think he is going to fill the shoes of Brandon Marshall. Brandon Marshall will be a top receiver for many years in this league, and I don’t care when you draft a wide receiver, 4^th round picks seem to pan out just as often as 1^st round pick’s now a days. And lets not forget Eddie Royal took a huge step back last year, and now he doesn’t have a game changing receiver playing opposite of him to take the pressure off, throw in Kyle Orton as your starting QB, and well your starting to not feel so certain now are you. Knowshon Moreno is good, but still has a long way to go before he can carry a team on his shoulders. There Defense should be middle of the pack, with a great defensive line, but not much more after that. I hate to say it, but this is the year that Kansas City, and yes, the Raiders pass up the Bronco’s in the west, and lets be honest, worst in the AFC west could very well mean Worst in the NFL. Oh and if your hopes are tied to Tebow, well even if he does turn out to be a good QB in this league, this is not the year that will happen.

Kansas City Chiefs – 3rd in AFC west – Last year I said that this had to be one of the worst teams in the league, but I also said that they were heading in the right direction. Eric Berry will be the next Ed Reed, he will have some growing pains, but watch for him to make some game changing plays this year also. I’m also very impressed with the Dexter McCluster pick. Right now he is slated as a WR, but he is a RB, and will be the primary back up to Jamaal Charles. Dwayne Bowe has had some off field issues that have hindered his on field performance (or enhanced?) But I love his physical play he brings to the WR position. Matt Cassel is still over paid, but I would take him over a lot of the QB’s that have managed to find starting jobs this year. (I’m talking to you Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton, Jake Delhomme, ect.. ooh why don’t we make a list of worst starting QB’s that on decent teams wouldn’t even be backup’s!). In the end, I don’t expect them to have a winning season, but I expect them to take a step forward.

Oakland Raiders – 2^nd in AFC west – Yes I said it. Now don’t blow this out of proportion, 2^nd in the AFC west is still not a good team, they would still finish 4^th in almost every other division. I still have zero confidence in Al Davis to run this team, but it seems that some how this year he seemed to not be as big of a bone head. The draft was actually decent, and they upgraded there QB situation. (Sad, Campbell is considered a big upgrade). On paper, according to College stats, this team has more talent on it then any other team. To bad College careers don’t always carry over to the NFL huh Darren McFadden? This team is still crazy to watch, and there will be drama with Al Davis and the coaching. But they are starting to work its way back into being a competitive team.

San Diego Chargers – 1^st AFC West- surprise surprise. No more LaDainian Tomlinson. The face of this franchise for a long time. I agree he wasn’t starting material anymore, they ran him out gas, but I don’t like how they went about it. Ryan Mathews may be good, but it sounds as if everybody expecting him to come in and be the Ladanian Tomlinson of 2004. Not happening. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, along with Philip Rivers make this a very dangerous team, but if Vincent Jackson does hold out as long as he says he does, you should expect quite a bit of drop off. Malcom Floyd is not a guy who can take over that number 1 spot, and somebody name another WR on the team. Yup, that just means more focus on Gates. Not saying there bad, but don’t expect to wheel off 11 wins in a row.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns – 4^th AFC north – When you bring in Jake Delhomme to be you’re starting QB, then you know you have hit rock bottom. Oh right you got a QB in the draft. So why is Delhomme slated as the starter, why did they even bring him in? You have Seneca Wallace as a backup, and Brett Ratliff as a guy who will hopefully never see the field. I have never been much for calling for the rookie to start right away, but there are times when you don’t have many better options, so you might as well get him the experience he needs, your going to loose either way. Josh Cribbs is a game changer as a returner, and Jerome Harrison will be a top 10 back this year, those are great, but this team just isn’t ready to take a step forward yet. Mike Holmgren is a great coach, but as a president? I know he did great handling both jobs in Seattle, but if I also remember, that window opened and closed really quickly for them

Cincinnati Bengals – 3^rd AFC North – I mentioned this more then once last year, I said it was going to happen, and it did, The Bengals extended Marvin Lewis contract. The second part of my prediction last year, Cincinnati can now look forward for to at least 2 more years of being mediocre at best. Yes Cincinnati was the best in the north last year, but please do not give Marvin Lewis the credit, I can remember at least two times were Carson Palmer won the game for him, and once where Palmer had to wave off the punt unit, and go against Marvin’s call to win the game. I’m not saying Palmer is the best QB in the league, he isn’t, but he has more guts and football knowledge then his head coach does. Some day Palmer will be a winning head coach somewhere. This year they come back to earth. Oh yeah, and they added another locker room cancer in T.O. that helped them right?

Pittsburgh Steelers – 2^nd AFC North – I hate that I have to put them here, but I just don’t see the Bengals or the browns doing anything to knock them down below this. Rashard Mendenhall is coming into his own, but this team has officially become a pass first team. As much as I hate to say it, Roethlisberger is a winner when it comes to football. (To bad we can’t say the same when it comes to life… fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me! Oh wait three times!!, He has a problem). Once he gets back onto the field, (anytime this season will be to soon in my opinion) this team becomes a threat to win every week again. The drafting of Pouncy will help solidify that terrible offensive line. And Hines Ward just will not quite. They did loose one of there trouble makers (Holmes) but then again I remember him getting some sort of honor a couple years ago in some really big game. Eh that won’t come back to bite them. As for the defense, well Polamalu makes or breaks this team, with him they are one of the best, without him, they have a hard time stopping anybody. I honestly never thought one player on defense could be so important until I saw this defense without him last year.

Baltimore Ravens – 1^st in AFC North - This is it, this is the team I am picking as the favorites in the AFC to be in the super bowl. I was on the Ravens band wagon all last year, and they have only gotten better this year. Sure the defense has gotten one year older, but there still a top 10 unit. The Ravens have always drafted well, and all those BYU fans out there, this is the team that picked up Pitta, so jump on that bandwagon!

Flacco has another year under his belt, and I still think is the best QB pick out of the 2008 draft class. (Henne, Ryan). Add in the fact that Ray Rice broke out last year. (I got him late in my fantasy league) and that they added a solid number 1 receiver (Boldin) and you have to think that this offense will be able to out score any team that they play against. 

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars – 4^th AFC south – This is got to be the only team were any fantasy football fanatic could name two great starters that have a hyphen in there name. Unfortunately, they also happen to be the only starters worth knowing about on this team at all. Is Jack Del Rio really still the head coach of this team?

Tennessee Titans – 3^rd AFC South – The defense isn’t as good as a couple years back, but solid enough. The offense has Chris Johnson, and well that is all you need, at least for a year so. I am picking this team 3^rd in the south, but please do not think that is a slight, AFC south is loaded as always. If Vince Young continues to mature, you guys have a solid chance. My concern, what happens if your offense (Johnson) gets hurt? I’m hoping it doesn’t happen, cause lets be honest he is exciting to watch. I also can’t seem to quite having memories of another great running back that played in Tennessee. (Eddie George) He was far to over worked, and had his career cut short, is this the fate of Johnson also? If he continues like last year, I predict he only has another two, three years tops before he is done. Only time will tell

Indianapolis Colts – 2^nd AFC South – That’s right I said it. Don’t believe me, wait, and see. Peyton manning will be Peyton manning, and that receiving core is going to be great also, but the run game didn’t show any sign of improving. They will still be high scoring, But I am expecting the age of key veterans to finally catch up to this team. But no worries Indy fans, this won’t cost you the playoffs.

Houston Texans – 1^st AFC South – They have been on the bubble for how many years now? This has to be at least the 5^th year that I have predicted them to be a playoff team, and they would have been by now if they didn’t have to battle the Colts twice a year every year. This offense has become the most lethal in the south, and that is saying something. There defense is young and has talent developing . If they stay healthy, this team becomes dangerous. Look at this roster and tell me how they can’t make the playoffs. If they don’t, and some other team gets in at 8-8, then maybe it is time to review the playoff slotting.

Playoff teams

San Diego Chargers

Tennessee Titans

Indianapolis Colts

Houston Texans (1^st round bye)

Baltimore Ravens (1^st round bye)

New York Jets

AFC champion

Baltimore Ravens