Fantasy Football: Strength of Schedule WRs

Below we have provided the APA (average points against) per game given up to opposing teams WRs; the scoring is in a standard format.  Although teams make major changes to their defenses year to year, whether it is coaching, scheme, or personnel, teams can turn around their previous years' defensive woes very quickly.  Here is the APA for each team last season, going from most points allowed to least points allowed...

1.  Titans 24.0
2.  Jaguars 23.6
3.  Lions 23.4
4.  Seahawks 22.4
5.  Chiefs 21.1
6.  Dolphins 20.9
6.  Steelers 20.9
8.  Saints 20.1
9.  Bears 19.8
9. Patriots 19.8
9. Buccaneers 19.8
12. Colts 19.4
12. Giants 19.4
14. Rams 19.3
15. Cardinals 18.9
15. Redskins 18.9 
17. Vikings 18.6
18. Chargers 18.3
19. Packers 18.2
20. Falcons 17.9
20. 49ers 17.9
22. Cowboys 17.4
22. Texans 17.4
22. Raiders 17.4 
22. Ravens 17.4
26. Eagles 16.9
27. Browns 16.3
28. Bengals 15.9
29. Broncos 15.2
30. Bills 14.3
31. Panthers 13.1
32. NY Jets 10.7

How can we apply this information to give us an edge in upcoming drafts?  We have broken down individual players from all 32 teams, based on who has the best schedule, based on the FPA (fantasy points allowed) by their opponents in 2009.  The list starts from the best FPA to the worst...

1. Miles Austin:  Austin enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2009, and now has the easiest schedule against the pass heading into 2010.  He faces off against the Giants (2), Titans, Bears, Jaguars, Saints, Redskins (2) and Cardinals.

2. Chaz Schilens:  The Raiders upgraded from the inept JaMarcus Russell to the solid Jason Campbell this offseason.  Chaz is a breakout candidate who has match-ups against the Chiefs (2), Jaguars, Titans, Cardinals, Rams, Colts, Seahawks, and Dolphins.

3. Steve Smith (Car):  Despite the broken arm, Steve Smith has favorable match-ups vs. the Bucs (2), Cardinals, Bears, Seahawks, Rams, and Saints (2).  Matt Moore should win the starting job, and Smith should continue to produce.

4. Santana Moss:  McNabb will bring leadership and the deep ball, but we have reservations about the Redskins offense in 2010.  Favorable match-ups include:  Giants (2), Rams Bucs, Titans, Bears, and Lions.

5. Lee Evans:  Evans has nice match-ups vs. the Dolphins (2), Lions, Bears, and Chiefs.  We still have no idea who will play QB, or if the offensive line will come together.

6. DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin:  Kevin Kolb steps in as the starter, and the Eagles will implement more of a traditional West Coast offense in 2010.  D-Jax may find it tough to repeat the big plays of 2009, but Maclin will provide nice value against the Giants (2), Lions, Bears, Jags, and Colts.

7. Sidney Rice/Percy Harvin:  Favre will most likely return, but can he repeat his magical 2009 season?  Rice has missed the workouts with Fitz in Minnesota, which he attributed to his success in 2009. Harvin will only get better as they face the Bears (2), Giants, Cardinals, and Lions (2).

8. Malcolm Floyd: V-Jax is a risky pick to all his business is cleared up, but he miss three games, that we know for sure.  Floyd is a target on everyone's sleeper list, as he faces off against Chiefs (2), Colts, Cardinals, and Rams.

9. Donnie Avery:  Avery will be the number one target in St. Louis, but the offense may struggle under a rookie QB.  They do face the Seahawks (2), Cardinals (2). Chiefs, Bucs, and Lions.  We also like Laurent Robinson as a possible sleeper if this offense can get it going through the air.

10. DeMaryius Thomas:  This could be Jabar Gaffney or Eddie Royal, but do any of the Denver options get you excited, with the possible QB situation.  Still, they do face off vs. the Chiefs (2), Jags, Colts, Rams, and Titans.

11. Michael Crabtree:  We are expecting a breakout season in year two from the talented WR.  He faces the Cards (2), Rams (2), and Seahawks (2), Chiefs, and Bucs.

12. Kenny Britt:  Britt is a physically gifted WR, which enjoyed a nice rapport with VY in his rookie season.  The Titans still have veterans Justin Gage and Nate Washington in their lineup.  We shall see if Britt can step up and be a top option in 2010, with match-ups vs. the Colts (2), Jags (2), Giants, Dolphins, and Chiefs.

13. Steve Smith (NY):  There may be a camp battle brewing between Nicks and Manningham, but Nicks should easily win the #2 WR job.  Steve Smith may struggle to repeat his 2009 season, as the Giants will have a better defense and will try to run the ball more.  They do have some favorable match-ups against the Lions, Jags, Bears, Titans, Colts, and Seahawks.  We like Nicks to breakout, despite the changes that may occur in 2010.
 
14. Reggie Wayne/Pierre Garcon:  Wayne is still a stud, and Garcon will provide him with Harrison type wingman.  It helps to have Peyton, as well as matchups vs. the Chiefs, Giants, Jags (2), and Titans (2).

15. Greg Jennings:  We are looking for a bounce back season for Jennings, as the Packers offensive line should provide Rodgers with more time to throw the deep ball.  Driver could drop off in 2010, so keep an eye on the battle between James Jones and Jordy Nelson.  The Packers get the Giants, Lions (2), Bears (2), and Dolphins.

16. Andre Johnson:  Like you need a reason to grab AJ...he faces the Colts (2), Jags (2), Titans (2), Chiefs, and Giants, but I also like Jacoby Jones to have a good chance to break out if he can win the job opposite Johnson.

17. Braylon Edwards/Santonio Holmes:  The Jets have a somewhat favorable schedule, but despite the upgrades at WR, they will remain a power running team.  The do face off against the Dolphins (2), but also get some tough match-ups vs. the Bills (2), Ravens, Bengals, and Broncos.

18. Calvin Johnson:  Megatron will need to live up to his name, with the help of second year QB Matt Stafford.  He gets the Dolphins, Bears (2), and Giants...but also faces a couple tough match-ups vs. the Jets and Bills.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh:  The Seahawks offense was a disaster in 2009, as injuries and poor play doomed them.  They get some help with Golden Tate and Russell Okung, as well as a healthy Hasselbeck.  They do get the Cardinals (2) and Rams (2), but unfortunately, they face off against Chargers, Broncos, and the 49ers (2).

20. Larry Fitzgerald:  Matt Leinart takes over for future HOF QB Kurt Warner, and it will take its toll on the WRs value.  Steve Breaston and Early Doucet will fight for the #2 job left behind by Boldin.  Games against the Rams (2), Seahawks (2), Chiefs, and Bucs will help, but tilts vs. the Panthers, Chargers, and Broncos may cause the WRs problems.

21. Devin Hester:  Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashdu will also be part of the Bears aerial attack, as Mad Mike comes to the Windy City.  They may have some problems with the tough pass defenses of the Jets, Bills, Panthers, Eagles, and Cowboys.

22. Mohammed Massaquoi:  Massaquoi should provide some value, if the Browns can get the QB situation under control this season.  Colt McCoy may be under center by the end of the season, but they face off vs. the tough pass defenses of the Ravens (2), Bengals (2), Panthers and Jets.

23. Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams:  The two rookie WRs join second year QB Josh Freeman in the Bucs rebuilding offense.  Both rookies may start from day one, but will have an uphill battle with Panthers (2), Ravens, and Bengals on their schedule.

24. Roddy White:  Roddy White has been a consistent threat for the past three seasons, and I see a big season in store for the WR, despite the fact that he faces off against the Panthers (2), Eagles, Bengals, and Ravens.  Look for Harry Douglas in training camp, as he has a chance to contribute if he beats out Michael Jenkins for the #2 WR job in Atlanta.

25. Anquan Boldin/Derrick Mason:  The Ravens are a run first offense, which will face off against the Bengals (2), Bills, Jets, Broncos, and Panthers.  I think Boldin is a bust in 2010, but Mason could find some nice value if he slips in drafts due to the Boldin signing.

26. Marques Colston/Robert Meachem:  Devery Henderson, Lance Moore…who will Brees throw to?  The open man.  Colston will still be his favorite target, but Meachem is still having problems with his toe, never mind the fact that the Saints face off with the Panthers (2), Ravens, Bengals, and Cowboys.

27. Mike Sims-Walker:  We are smelling bust with MSW in 2010.  He faces off with the Broncos, Chargers, Eagles, Raiders, Bills, and Cowboys, while playing the entire season as the number one guy in Jax.  We do like Mike Thomas to step up in his second season, and have a productive season opposite Sims-Walker.

28. Dwayne Bowe: If this guy can ever put it all together, he could have something special.  Charlie Weis will call the plays in 2010, which could put Bowe in a place to succeed.  The Chiefs have the easiest strength of schedule vs. the run, but with games vs. the Broncos (2), Chargers (2), Raiders (2), and Bills, we could see a heavy dose of running in KC.

29. Brandon Marshall:  Marshall is a machine that has had over 100 catches per season over the past three seasons.  Despite playing the Bills (2), Jets (2), Ravens, and Bengals, we still like his chances in 2010.

30. Chad Ochocinco:  Antonio Bryant is having problems with his knee, and T.O. has been brought in.  The Bengals have become a power running team that will rely less on the run, especially if Bryant can't stay healthy.  Not to mention they face off against the Panthers, Ravens (2), and Chargers.

31. Randy Moss/Wes Welker:  Even though he is currently on the PUP list, Wes Welker may pull a miracle and be ready to start in week one and Moss is entering a contract year.  The Pats will face the Jets (2), Bills (2), Ravens, Bengals, and Chargers, which will challenge the Pats passing game.  Julian Edleman and Brandon Tate are guys to watch in training camp.

32. Mike Wallace/Hines Ward:  If we needed more of a reason to dislike Ward in 2009, the Steelers have the worst SOS for WRs.  I still like Wallace, especially after Big Ben returns to the lineup.  However, tilts vs. the Bengals (2), Ravens (2), Raiders, Jets, and Bills, will make it tough sledding in Pittsburgh.

Tommy Rowan is the co-founder and writer for fantasyfanplay.com

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