Fantasy Football: Where Should Chad Ochocinco Be Drafted?

I was doing a mock draft recently and saw Chad Ochocinco drafted in the third round.  I have him as the 14th ranked wide receiver on my draft board (click here to view), so it’s not that much of a stretch, but still it seems a little odd.

First of all, Ochocinco’s performance last season leaves a lot to be desired.  He had 72 receptions for 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns.  The receptions are his fewest in a year that he has played in all 16 games since 2002.  The yards are the fewest in a year that he has played in all 16 games ever.

Yes, the touchdowns are fine, but he’s never scored more then 10 in a year.  As a third-round receiver, you certainly would want more upside in that aspect of his game.  At 32 years old, it certainly is possible that he is on the downside of his career.

One argument is that the additions of Terrell Owens and Jermaine Grisham will help to take the pressure off of Ochocinco.  With more weapons, defenses will have more people to cover and therefore won’t focus strictly on Ochocinco.

The Bengals offense has the potential to be electric, but will there be enough balls to go around?  We all know that both Ochocinco and Owens are combustible, to say the least, so if they don’t see the ball could either “check out” of the game? 

That certainly has to be a huge concern and could affect Ochocinco’s performance on a week-to-week basis.  In head-to-head leagues, that makes it tough to trust him.

Another concern is the arm strength of Carson Palmer.  I’ve posted this quote from Robert Weintraub of Football Outsiders in the Cincinnati Enquirer before (click here for the entire article), but it’s worth repeating:

“Our game charters noted only 15 percent of Palmer’s throws as 'deep' or 'bomb.' By contrast, noodle-armed Chad Pennington threw 19 percent of his balls deep or bomb in 2008 in a similar scheme. Palmer threw long 23 percent of the time in 2007.”

The question becomes, can Palmer get the ball down the field for the big play?  If he can’t on a consistent basis, Ochocinco isn’t going to be able to accumulate yards and also may have a tough time finding the end zone.  That’s got to be a huge concern.

According to Mock Draft Central, Ochocinco has an ADP of 45.67, the 17th wide receiver off the board.  I’m likely to move him down on my rankings the next time around and like him more at this point in the draft (late fourth round/early fifth around) as opposed to taking him in the third.

He is just too big of a risk and seems to have a better chance to underwhelm as opposed to exceeding expectations.

What are your thoughts on Ochocinco?  Can he put up a big year or will he struggle in 2010?

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