Fantasy Football: Ryan Mathews Boom Or Bust

LaDanian Tomlinson is one the greatest RBs in the history of the NFL, and is a surefire HOF player, but his decline over the past two seasons had the Chargers searching for his replacement. 

While L.T. will don the green and white for the Jets in 2010, the Chargers moved up in the first round to select Ryan Mathews out of Fresno State.  In 2009, Mathews led the nation in rushing yards with 1,808 yards, and also rushed for 19 TDs. 

His scouting report states that he has NFL speed, power, agility, and character...but, his cons were his durability, and lack of elite competition. 

He didn't catch very many passes at Fresno St., and needs to work on that aspect of his game.  Running behind one of the worse offensive lines in the NFL (only 3.3 YPC in 2009) and the fact that All Pro LT Marcus McNeil is holding out, hurts his value.

Mathews will offset the poor offensive line play by playing in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. He will get plenty of opportunities to score in this offense.

The biggest pro for us?  Norv Turner innate ability to churn out stud RBs.  Turner may not be the best HC in the NFL, but for fantasy, he always delivers.  Emmitt Smith, Stephen Davis, Ricky Williams, Frank Gore, and L.T. all had some of their best seasons under will the play calling of Turner. 

Considering Mathews was hand picked by the Chargers as the heir apparent to a HOF player, he should have a big impact on the fantasy world in 2010.  This season, he goes up against the Chiefs twice (31st* vs the run), Raiders twice (29th* vs the run), Rams (27th* vs the run), Broncos twice (26th* vs the run), and the Colts (24th* vs the run). 

It's tough to predict stats based on last years numbers, but this schedule does look inviting, as half his games are against defenses in the bottom ten* against the run.

We don't want to predict a monster season for Mathews, as that would be a lot to expect from a rookie.  So let's look at L.T.'s rookie season stats, for a barometer on what we could expect from Mathews in 2010. 

L.T.'s rookie season stats:  339 carries, 1,236 yards rushing, 59 receptions, 367 yards receiving, and 10 TDs.  I don't think there is any chance he gets close to the 59 receptions, as long as Darren Sproles is around, and the 339 carries, I'm thinking it will be more like 290-300. 

So, if he doesn't get the opportunities, then we can't expect him to get the yardage L.T. did back in 2001.

His current ADP (Average Draft Position) is 21 which may be much too high for an unproven rookie, regardless of his opportunity. 

Early training camp reports have been more than optimistic, as the rookie has looked impressive.  We shall see if the rookie can live up to the hype. 

*2009 Stats

Tommy Rowan is the co-founder and writer for fantasyfanplay.com 

For all your daily and up to the minute fantasy football news, insights, and analysis follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and dominate your draft with the Fantasy Fan Play Iphone/Ipad App.