Fantasy Football Preview: Denver Broncos 2010

Fantasy Football Spin, FFSpin.com, takes the NFL news and helps you understand what it all means in fantasy football terms.  As we prepare for the 2010 season, FFSpin is taking a look at all 32 NFL teams.  Let's take a look at the fantasy football prospects of the Denver Broncos.  Follow us on Twitter for all the late breaking news @FFSpin...

With the offseason trade of Brandon Marshall and his 100 catches per season as well as pass catching TE Tony Scheffler, the Broncos are a team in transition.

They are betting that rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will bolster a receiving corps that is now devoid of play makers.

The Broncos offense finished in the middle of the pack in 2009, ranking 15th in the NFL in total yardage (340) while averaging 20 points per game.  QB Kyle Orton had the best statistics of his career (mostly thanks to Brandon Marshall).

He finished with 3,802 yards passing and 21 touchdowns (Marshall had 10 TDs). 

The 2010 Broncos’ receiving corps is average at best, led by 2009 underachiever Eddie Royal, veteran Jabar Gaffney, and rookie Demaryius Thomas. The Broncos added Brady Quinn in a trade from Cleveland and drafted Tim Tebow in the first round, but this is Orton’s job to lose.  Based on the depleted WR corps, I’m not sure he’ll crack the top 25 fantasy QBs this season. The front office has done him no favors.

As for the receivers that remain, eight year veteran Jabar Gaffney had his best year to date in 2009 finishing with 730 yards but only managing a measly two touchdowns.

In the final two games of last season he blew up for 21 catches for 282 yards and could have an outside chance at 1,000 yards if he maintains a starting job all season.

Rookie Demaryius Thomas is the other Denver wideout worth considering on draft day.

With Dez Bryant (arguably the No. 1 WR prospect in the draft) still on the board, the Broncos traded up to No. 22 but opted to avoid another player with character concerns and instead selected Georgia Tech’s dynamic play maker Demaryius Thomas.

The one knock on the big, physical Thomas was that he didn’t play in a pro style offense in college. Mastering route running might take some time, however his physical skills make him an intriguing fantasy prospect even as a rookie.  He has game-breaking speed (sub 4.4 40) and a linebacker’s mentality with a willingness to deliver bone-crushing blocks.

At 6'3", 230 lbs he averaged an eye popping  25 yards per catch in 2009 and should begin to fill the void left by Marshall’s departure.  His breakout junior year performance included a career high in receptions (46), receiving yards (1,154) and touchdowns (eight).  Thomas is worth grabbing as a WR4 as he will have limited competition and has elite measurables and potential.

Rookie Knowshon Moreno appeared to a hit a wall as the 2009 season progressed.

Already in 2010, he sustained a hamstring injury that will force him to miss most of the preseason.

That’s a scary prospect as time after time we see running backs that miss significant camp time end up suffering through injury plagued seasons.

He will also need to improve on his YPC in order to reach fantasy stardom.  Moreno failed to crack 100 yards in any game in 2009, but he did have double digits in Fantasy points in five games and finished with 947 rushing yards (3.8 YPC) and five touchdowns.

He also added 28 catches for 213 yards and two touchdowns with four lost fumbles. If healthy, Moreno  should gain a greater workload in his sophomore season as veteran Correll Buckhalter will likely be used in more of a change of pace role.  One caveat is the loss of Brandon Marshall will lead to more defensive focus on stopping the run.  As a defensive coordinator, why would you not key on the running game when the team shipped off their two, and possibly three, best offensive players in a very short time frame.

Moreno is currently going in the 3rd to 4th round and is being taken as the 18th RB off the board, making him a mid-range RB2.  Prior to the injury he was being taken as the 13th back in mocks.

Ten year veteran Correll Buckhalter actually posted two 100 yard games last season and an impressive 5.2 YPC which makes him a must have handcuff for all Moreno owners. The Broncos have also recently added LenDale White to the mix who could steal some red zone carries if ends of making the final roster.

The Denver defense lost its best play maker when Elvis Dumervil sustained a potential season ending pectoral injury.

He’s schedule to miss at least 4 months. The 2009 NFL sack leader (17) leaves a gaping hole in the Broncos 3-4 defense.  Denver has also lost defensive coordinator Mike Nolan (replaced by LB coach Don Martindale) and will be hard pressed to be relevant in fantasy circles in 2010.

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN:

Overvalued:

RB Knowshon Moreno (ADP 40 Overall, RB20) – We are split on this here at FFSpin.

Scott has come around to Moreno and thinks he has a great shot at finishing as a top 12 RB.

Rob, on the other hand, thinks Moreno is set up for failuer, at least relative to where he is being drafted.

Here is what Rob Warner has to say about Moreno entering the 2010 season…The rookie back wore down as the season progressed and is now battling a hamstring injury. He should remain the feature back in Denver if he can prove to be more durable. In 2009, Moreno averaged 15 carries per game vs. Buckhalter’s 8.5 and the same split should continue this season. The loss of the most dynamic WR in the game in Brandon Marshall will hamper the entire offense and will likely lead to a greater focus defensive coordinators on making stopping the run a priority. 

In his second NFL season, Moreno has alot of negatives surrounding him which makes the former Georgia Bulldog best drafted as more of a low end RB2. I prefer taking these RBs that are currently being drafted in the same tier: Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, and Matt Forte.

Undervalued: 

Demaryius Thomas (ADP of 108, WR42) 

We are cautiously optimistic that Thomas has the physical skills to overcome any route running deficiencies.

Make no mistake he’s not going to come anywhere near Brandon Marshall’s dominant fantasy performances but the #1 receiver spot is his for the taking. We would rank him as the #2 rookie receiver to target behind Dez Bryant (if healthy) and slightly ahead of Golden Tate (Seattle) and Williams in Tampa Bay. A darkhorse who may enter that conversation is Dexter McCluster, but we think he is a year away from making a big impact.  Our forecast for Thomas is 700 yards and 5  touchdowns in 2010.  Kyle Orton is a serviceable quarterback and Thomas should be a starter from day one, giving him the potential to become a good WR4, who can start some weeks for you right away if he locks down the starting job.

A starting job seems likely considering the Broncos have underwhelming options (Gaffney and Royal) currently at the top of the depth chart.

The Georgia Tech speedster is said to be 100 percent recovered from a broken foot.

Josh McDaniels has always had a physical receiver in his offense (Randy Moss  / Brandon Marshall) and Thomas has a chance to step right into the starting lineup and be a powerful red zone threat.

Sleeper: 

Jabar Gaffney (ADP of 152, WR61) 

Despite starting five less games, Gaffney outperformed the younger Eddie Royal in 2009.

That’s kinda like saying you’re the best behaved Cincinnati Bengal or the skinniest Sumo wrestler, but it’s promising nonetheless.

Not only did he catch more balls than Royal (54 vs. 37) and more TDs (2 vs 0), but he seemed to have more rapport with starting QB Kyle Orton, and the numbers back that up.

Royal was targeted 79 times by Orton but only 47 percent of those passes were converted into receptions.  Gaffney and Orton seemed to be on the same page more often resulting in a 62% completion percentage.

Gaffney has never been a superstar, but he is the only reliable veteran target on this roster and that is more important than ever since this team seems to make a habit of shipping off all of their most talented offensive weapons.

Gaffney may well be the only pass catcher Orton can count on in 2010 and that bodes well for him and fantasy owners that take Gaffney late in their drafts.