Gambler's Preview UFC 117 (Silva Vs Sonnen)

This upcoming fight card may take more action than most UFC events for the simple reason of fighter recognition.  The main event features arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world of Mixed Martial Arts in Anderson Silva.  Silva also happens to be fighting arguably the loudest mouth in all of sports, who has been marching in his own "Hype Parade" for the last 2 months straight.

I am a firm believer that you only wager the fights you feel are extremely well informed on. Secondarily, wagering on too many fights will result in mathematical regression that will generally lead to a 50/50 scenario, which simply results in the loss of juice.  Every handicapper at some point must make predictions on the outcome without 100% certainty, it is minimizing the risk and downside that makes a gamble(r) good.

My betting platform uses a hedging strategy that usually involves multiple scenario wagers for each fight that allows the gambler to take advantage of each fighter's strengths and weaknesses.  I will address the wager strategy and walk you through the steps to successfully walk away a winner on Saturday.

Note:  Any fan of MMA knows that on any given night a superior fighter can and will eventually lose, that being said, this strategy is used to minimize the damage when this occurs, but still allows you to wager on your fighter of choice if he is the favorite.

SILVA vs. SONNEN

First and foremost, do not let Sonnen's mouth fool you.  He is a considerably inferior fighter to Anderson Silva.  However, the hype machine has actually skewed betting lines that can be taken advantage of on fight night.  Silva is -400 with Sonnen +330 meaning on a 100 dollar wager you would win $25 if Silva is victorious and $330 if Sonnen upsets.

Sounds enticing to go for Sonnen doesn't it? However, these lines are way off, Silva is coming off his last fight -850 (Maia) whereas Sonnen was a +335 underdog to Nate Marquardt. Essentially, one would be wagering on the same odds from the Sonnen vs. Marquardt if you were to select Chael to be victorious on Saturday.  Not a very smart wager in my opinion.

That being said, how do you pick Silva to win without risking the major upset bankrupting you.  Fairly simple, proposition bets with hedging.  Known as prop bets, these allow for more granular bets based on more specific outcomes. These bets are essential to MMA fighting because certain styles and fighters will more often result in more predictable outcomes.  Lets review the prop bets I like that are available, the hedging strategy involved, and each fighters' strengths and weaknesses.

Anderson has made his name for the most part with dramatic flash wins most notably 2009's fight of the year versus Forrest Griffin.  This is nothing new for Anderson, as he is a deadly striker and also capable of a submission using his BJJ (Dan Henderson) if you want to take him to the ground.  Many casual fans are also not aware that Silva is a black-belt in Judo, which does not make for an easy take down if you can get past his striking inside. Fighters that are deathly afraid of Anderson can avoid him for five rounds to a decision, but this will not be the case with Sonnen whatsoever.  The sole reason Dana White created this match up was to have Sonnen go straight at Silva.

Sonnen on the other hand is a world class wrestler with minimal KO power.  Sonnen generally grounds and pounds to a points victory, but is very susceptible to BJJ submissions while on the ground. So, if this fight is to end in a decision, Sonnen does have the potential to pull this out.  Sonnen has not won a fight inside the distance since 2007 and I don't forecast that happening against the best fighter in the world. But hey that's why it's gambling and there must be risk somewhere.  

Bets to be placed:

1. Silva wins inside the distance: -210  

You wager $630 to win $300 (increases the odds in your favor compared to the standard money line by almost 2 times)

2. Sonnen wins by decision: +539

You wager $100 to win $539   

Net Results:

Silva inside the distance: + $200.00 

Sonnen by decision - $91.00 

Obviously the risk stands that Silva gets KO'd/submitted or that the fight goes the distance with Silva winning.  That could potentially result in a net loss of 730 dollars, however; those are still better odds than taking the fight straight up at -400 which would take $800 dollars to win the same $200 on Silva.

This strategy still provides a very comfortable loss in the event Sonnen does miraculously pull this fight off in a decision.  I strongly feel these are the only two outcomes for this fight, with Silva stopping Sonnen the most likely scenario, hence the strategy.

Naturally these wagers can be increased or decreased by your financial capabilities, but it is important to keep the ratios the same if you like the strategy.  

Please message me with any questions regarding the system.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, ALWAYS REMEMBER TO ONLY WAGER WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!

*UFC 117 fighting odds and betting odds are provided by an independent third party website and are for informational and entertainment purposes only.