2010 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Please let me make my case about drafting quaterbacks in the fifth round and I am going to look at PPR type scoring as this is one of the most popular formats for 2010.

I can't possibly write about all the scoring formats and some will argue for different positions as they relate to different scoring so I am aware of that.

In the following table I have drafted many combination of runningback and wide reciever when drafting the #12 quaterback in the fifth round compared to drafting the #1 quaterback in the first round and a combo of wide reciever, running back in the 2nd through 5th round. You can clearly see that drafting a quaterback in the first would put you in a weaker position.

I ran three scenarios where you picked a quaterback in the fifth and assumed you were the last to pick a quaterback and that you got the 12th ranked quaterback. I ran another scenario as if you got the 1st pick, then the 6th pick, then the 12th pick in a snake draft type format.

Then I ran the scenario if you got an early pick and were able to get the best quaterback and then drafted the rest of the players like you had a 6th round pick.

It's easy to see the team that picked the quaterback with the first round pick has the lowest averages. The team that had the first pick of the draft and drafted a the best runningback has the best averages. The top running back has the best weekly average.

All the numbers that you see are the weekly averages and you can see that I have color coded the quaterbacks, running backs, and widerecievers while splitting them into top 12 and 12-24.  Meaning I took the top 24 runningbacks and top 24 wide recievers weekly averaged and line them all up from highest weekly average to lowest weekly average.

The conclusion that can be drawn from the data is to wait until the later rounds to draft a quaterback. Optimally you would draft a quaterback in round five or if their is a quaterback run then round four.

Click to see analysis:

Link to spreadsheet

The numbers are the weekly averages of the players.  I have color coded the positions.  I know it's a bit confusing but make sure to look at the sum with quaterback and sum with0ut quaterback lines.

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