Déjà Vu: The Comparision Between Fedor vs. Werdum and St-Pierre vs. Serra

It feels like déjà vu all over again.

This past weekend’s Strikeforce event saw a main event between Fedor Emelianenko and Fabricio Werdum, with the winner receiving a title shot at Alistair Overeem, who was sitting ringside for the bout.  Most MMA fans and analysts were expecting another win for the 230lb Russian, but this is MMA, and as the old saying goes, “expect the unexpected.”

Werdum not only shocked the San Jose crowd, but he shocked the MMA world when he upset the seemingly invincible Emelianenko via submission just 69 seconds in the opening round.

On the contrary, Werdum wasn’t dropped while exchanging with Fedor; he actually played possum and executed a smart strategy by forcing Emelianenko to get into his guard.  From there, Werdum locked on an arm triangle, transitioned to an arm bar and gave his opponent no choice but to tap.

It’s odd, but this bout draws a lot of comparisons to Georges St-Pierre’s first title defense vs. Matt Serra at UFC 69.

For starters, both Serra and Werdum came into their bouts as huge underdogs. In fact, Serra had more odds stacked against him, coming in with 6:1 chance of winning.

Also, both fighters were considered journeymen at the time in their respective careers, Werdum was 2-2 coming into his bout, while Serra was 3-3 going into his matchup. Not only were both St-Pierre and Emelianenko heavily favored to win their bouts, they were also riding their own winning streaks.

Another similarity is that while both fights ended in the first round, Serra and Werdum were able to find openings in their opponents and it allowed them to get the opportunity to finish them.

If you notice in the matchup between St-Pierre and Serra, Serra was willing to strike with the champion and pressed the action. The reason why Serra was pushing the pace was because he was much smaller than GSP, and it allowed him to get inside of St-Pierre and strike from a short range. To try and get inside St-Pierre’s range, Serra started to jab repeatedly at his opponent’s body.

Once Matt Serra finally got inside of St-Pierre’ range, he caught the champion square on the jaw and overwhelmed St-Pierre with a flurry of strikes and awarded Matt Serra the upset and the UFC Welterweight title.

In the matchup featuring Fedor and Werdum, it obviously ended much quicker.

The fight began with both men standing toe-to-toe and Fedor getting the better of the exchange. Although the Brazilian appeared to be rocked, Fedor actually didn’t connect and Werdum purposely fell back, forcing "The Last Emperor" to come into his guard.  As Emelianenko swung carelessly, Werdum raised both of his legs, causing his hips to elevate and catching the Russian’s left arm. Fedor fought hard to get out of the dangerous Brazilian’s guard, but Werdum still had Fedor’s left arm trapped. From there, Werdum tightened his grip, positioned himself, and sunk in the submission for the win.

These are two similar situations ending in two different outcomes. The two challengers, Fabricio Werdum and Matt Serra, both pulled off impossible outcomes while sticking to their strategies.

History shows us that in MMA no fighter is unbeatable. But it also teaches us that you live to fight another day, as St-Pierre came back to reclaim his title over Matt Serra in a dominating fashion.

It is likely, in a similar fashion, Fedor Emelianenko will do the same.