Sports MarketWatch: MLB Edition

Sports MarketWatch

MLB Edition

7/25/2008 4:00 PM EST

By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

We started the second half of the season off with a bang, going 3-0 last week.  Home cooking (with mostly home dogs) did the trick for MLB MarketWatch last week – and this week, the sports marketplace has similar unwanted home dogs.  Let’s try and keep the momentum going in the second half.

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 11-17, 39.3%, -3.85 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Kansas City Royals +106 over Tampa Bay Rays

This selection was an easy one based on the MLB MarketWatch’s love for home dogs.  The public loves the young TB team and continues to hate the league’s long-time doormats in KC.  TB changed its name to the “Rays” – eliminating “Devil” from their name – and also changed their losing ways this year.  They sit atop the super-strong AL-East – just a percentage point ahead of the Red Sox and three games ahead of the surging Yankees. 

Even with so many public bets (about 80% of the bets) landing on the Rays, early sharp money pushed the line from CRIS’s opener of KC +110 down to the generally available KC +102.  We’ll take the +105 that is still available and note that TB has the fewest road victories of any first place team at 19-26.

Kansas City Royals +106

San Francisco Giants +125 over Arizona Diamondbacks

What’s not to love about Dan Haren and his 2.58 ERA and 9-5 record?  That’s what a huge percentage of bettors are thinking when they take the first place D-backs over the lowly SF Giants. 

In this match-up, we’ll “bet against the public” and take the SF Giants as a solid home underdog that has value “built in” based on the overwhelming majority of bets landing on Arizona.  We’ll take the side of the sportsbooks in this game.

San Francisco Giants +125

Baltimore Orioles +125 over Los Angeles Angels

Baltimore is another home dog that isn’t getting any respect.  The Orioles are gathering a meager 10% of all bets, making them look appealing to contrarian sports investors like MarketWatch.  This game pits the high-flying, first place, Angels against the last place O’s.

At first glance, the Angels might seem appealing to some at -130 odds.  However, when you look closer, some interesting facts creep into the picture:

• The last place O’s are actually only a few games below .500.
• The home team O’s have a good 28-21 record at home.
• Only a recent slump pulled the O’s below .500 (“buy at recent low”).
• The Angels have been hot, winning 8 of their last 10 (“sell at recent high”).  

Overall, the Orioles look like a solid value play.  We’ll fade the public and take a live home dog that has additional value based on the O’s very recent under-performance and the Angels’ recent over-performance.

Baltimore Orioles +125

Games to Watch (11-17, -3.85 units)

Kansas City Royals +106

San Francisco Giants +125

Baltimore Orioles +125

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com