Breaking Down the 2010 Atlanta Falcons Schedule: A Hard Road Ahead.

Some analysts have said that Atlanta's schedule last year, against the east of each conference, was considerably tougher than this year's schedule against the AFC North and NFC West. While at first blush, you might be tempted to agree, I think they’ve actually got one of the toughest roads to the playoffs in the NFL this season.

The AFC North is a stronger division this year than the NFC East was last year. I know that there are a lot of "sports writers" out there using the term "beast"  in regards to the most over hyped division in football ever year, but they are simply not the class of the league. The AFC North has three teams that finished above .500 last year, two of which made the playoffs (Baltimore and Cincinnati).  Pittsburgh had a 9-7 record and was eliminated only after they had played their last game, thus were just on the cusp. Meanwhile the Giants were 8-8,\ and the Skins were 4-12 (worse than even the lowly Browns (5-11). Thus, based upon last year's records the AFC North is the better division. 

Looking at this year's teams in each division, I think that the Eagles may have gotten worse (although that is probably evened out by Skins getting better). On the other hand, each team in the AFC North has improved. Baltimore picked up weapons on offense and added to its already strong D; Cincy added a desperately needed TE and some competition at WR; Pitt gets Polomalu back, Smith back, and shored up the issue at corner by bringing McFadden Back (Dwyer also added RB depth). Sure, not having Ben for four games could hurt, but those are not bad match-ups and Pitt is deep at QB. Even lowly Cleveland continued its rebuilding process, and brought in both a vet and high potential rookie at QB.

All in all, I think the AFC North is a stronger conference than the NFC East, which simply gets more publicity because of their markets.

Looking to the other non conference division that Atlanta will play, I'll give you that the AFC East is better than the NFC West, but not by as much as you think. Arizona has won some football games in the last two years; you may have noticed that. Given they lost their MVP, but still I expect a solid team out there and a resurgent running game with a young back ready to make his mark in Beanie Wells. SF is an up-and- comer and would be my sleeper pick of the year if only it had a QB you could rely on. However, their great D and strong running game make them a tough match-up. St. Louis is a one man show, and we won't even talk about Seattle other than to say they're rebuilding.

In the AFC East you have consistently middling Miami, whom I would put just below AZ and SF. Consistently horrible Buffalo, which is about on par with Seattle. And then two reasonably good teams going in opposite directions with the Pats falling off and the Jets rising (hope they don't start to buy their own hype). While the Jets look good, they have a QB of the same caliber as out in SF and AZ - that is a guy who's stat line shows inconsistency and more INTs than TDs. NE has an aged defense that cannot hold opponents when it matters and no running game to speak of. That's pretty close to a draw if you ask me.

Thus, I think Atlanta faces at least as daunting a schedule this year as they did last year when they disappointed expectations. Actually, considering that Philly and Green Bay are Atlanta's non-division conference opponents and their schedule looks pretty intimidating. My prediction: Atlanta is 8-8 this year and doesn't make the playoffs. (three wins in NFC West, one win in AFC north, three in the division, and splitting against Philly and Green Bay). The best possible outcome I can see for this team is 10 wins, but they would have to beat Carolina and Tampa Bay twice to make that possible, which isn't an easy task against division opponents.

While I expect a better team this year, sadly for Atlanta fans, the results will be more of the same. Great potential, moments of glory, and more than a handful of bitter defeats. I think that if Turner stays healthy they'll be in most of these games, but I think its clear that they're not on quite the same level as a lot of their opponents when it comes to the number of offensive weapons, such as Baltimore, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cinci, Philly, New Orleans, etc. And they don't have a defense on the level as Pitt, Balt, Philly, SF.