Is Toronto's Shaun Marcum Worth a Fantasy Gamble?

It’s easy to forget about Shaun Marcum, as he missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  On opening day, he once again made you pay attention.

Marcum carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning at Texas before giving up a single to Vladimir Guerrero with one out.  If you were simply looking at the box score, you might not be all that impressed by Marcum allowing three runs on two hits and one walk, striking out six over seven innings.  Yeah, it’s impressive, but the fact of the matter is the bottom fell out all in one shot.

The walk, by Josh Hamilton, came right before Guerrero’s single.  The runs came right after Guerrero’s hit, courtesy of a three-run bomb from Nelson Cruz.

You take out that three-batter stretch and wonder what could have been.

It was a great start, there’s no questioning that, but are the underlying skills still there or was it a one-time event? 

The first thing is the strikeouts.  For his career Marcum had posted a 7.1 K/9, and over his minor league career he posted a 9.0 K/9.  Yes, there’s a good chance the skill he showed here continues.

The next thing to look at is the walk rate.  He had elite control in the minor leagues, with a career BB/9 of 1.5.  In the major leagues, however, he was at 3.2, and coming off the injury it’s hard to imagine him suddenly realizing the potential he once had. 

However, that’s not to say that he won’t be good in this regard.  Just look at his walk rates the two years prior to the injury: 2.77 in 2007 and 2.97 in 2008.

The other part of his skill set to look at is his fly ball and groundball rates.  In his past major league experience he had a 40.5-percent groundball rate vs. a 41.9-percent fly ball rate.  On Monday, he recorded nine outs in the air vs. five on the ground.

This is the most concerning issue for me at this point, especially playing in Toronto.  If he continues giving up fly balls, he’s going to get burned.

Obviously you can’t expect near perfection every time he takes the mound, but you have to like a lot of what you saw, beyond the numbers.  He’s going to have some highs and lows, but let’s not forget that this is a pitcher who already has proven his value.

Do not forget his 3.39 ERA in 2008.  Do not overlook that and dismiss it because of his injury.  He’s not a must-play, by any stretch, given this division he calls home, but he certainly is a pitcher worth owning in all formats.

What are your thoughts on Marcum?  Was his opening day start real or just a mirage?  How good do you think he could be?

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