Butler-Duke: Keys to the Game

If I had a nickel for every Cinderella reference, I could buy a pumpkin.

Over/under on David and Goliath references? Too many to count at this point.

The movie Hoosiers? You betcha. We’re getting inundated with that stuff since the Butler hails from Indiana.

Hell, you would think there’s a Hoosiers sequel being released. In this one, Barbara Hershey is divorcing Gene Hackman for passionate indiscretions on the local Denny’s. Dennis Hopper has turned in his whiskey habit for a life of AAU street running. Jimmy Chitwood bitches about practice. Practice? We talkin' 'bout practice, man.

Please, play the game already. I get that Duke’s a prohibitive favorite. I get that Butler’s never been here before. But after watching a month’s worth of tournament games, you won’t convince me that one of these two teams doesn’t belong. If we can agree on that, then let’s talk hoops.

Butler’s Keys

Pick Your Poison

For the Bulldogs, it all starts with playing terrific half-court defense. Just ask Brad Stevens. But you may have to wait in line behind any number of University Presidents and ADs to talk to the talented 33-year-old coach.

When talking about defending Duke, you have to talk about the big three: Singler, Scheyer, and Smith. It’s folly to think you’ll shut down all three of them, especially when there isn’t a team in the country with the perimeter talent to pull that off. As a coach, you have to pick your poison and try to limit one or two of the three.

For me, that poison is Kyle Singler. Nolan Smith gets other players involved, and Jon Scheyer is Duke’s best scorer. Butler also has the personnel to at least compete with those two. I put Ronald Nored on Smith and Shelvin Mack on Scheyer and let the chips fall where they may when tagging Kyle Singler with the undersized, 6′3″ Willie Veasley. There’s no way I risk Hayward’s minutes with foul trouble guarding Kyle.

If Duke wants to take Veasley to the low block and run offense through Singler in the post, so be it. Posting Singler is not something they’ve done a great deal of this season anyway, so if I’m Coach Stevens, I invite the Blue Devils out of their comfort zone.

Make Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek Score

Butler must force Thomas and Zoubek to be primary scorers in this game, and they can do that by not doubling down to help when these two catch the ball. If Zoubek and Thomas score 20 with a variety of post moves, you tip your cap to Coach K and call it a year. Remember, Butler needs to get Duke out of its comfort zone, and this is one of the ways it can accomplish that.

Run Offense Through Gordon Hayward

Hayward’s star power alone can carry the Bulldogs to victory, but Hayward has to be the team’s ball-handler in the half-court. Duke won’t want to put Singler on the talented forward unless they’ve capitulated and decided to go small, which means Thomas or a Plumlee brother is chasing the 6′9″ NBA-caliber player around the arc.

Mack, Veasley, and Zach Hahn are all terrific spot-up shooters, so it’s not a bad idea to run sets to get the ball in Hayward’s hands to create offense. At that point, it’s incumbent on Gordon to find teammates and punish mismatches in help and rotate situations. If Hayward has even an average game, Butler is done.

Keys for Duke

Throw Bodies at Hayward

This will be a tough game for Lance Thomas because he’s not accustomed to chasing athletes around the arc, so I’d suspect Coach K to use no less than four players to run at the talented Butler forward. You’ll likely see Thomas, the Plumlee brothers, Singler, and sometimes even Scheyer tagging Hayward in an effort to give him different looks and wear him down.

Sources of Help

I think it’s settled science at this point that slowing down Hayward ensures victory for Duke. To throw Gordon off his game, don’t be surprised to see Duke send quick doubles at the talented forward. The good news for Duke fans is that Butler has some attractive options the Devils can help off of, and they can come from a variety of spots on the floor.

Duke can employ big to big doubles designed to force weaker offensive players like Matt Howard or Avery Jukes to score the ball. If Duke wants to send help to Hayward from the perimeter, Nored isn’t a bad player to leave. He’s shooting less than 20 percent from deep for the season.

Wherever the help comes from, it has to be decisive, and the rotations have to be crisp because Butler is such an unselfish passing team. The Bulldogs understand their roles very well, so if there’s someone open, the Bulldogs will find him quickly.

Make Hayward Defend and Rebound

The Blue Devils do a great job finding weakness on the perimeter, but they haven’t really established a true back to the basket attack in the paint. For this tournament, that hasn’t hurt them because Duke has done such a tremendous job on the offensive glass. Putbacks have been their post attack thus far.

So whether they can use Plumlee or Thomas on the low block to attack Hayward or rebound over Butler’s star, they have to get something inside to make sure he’s working on the defensive end. If he’s allowed to play “center field” by leaving a non-scorer like Thomas, Hayward’s going to have that much more energy on offense to put the Bulldogs on his back and carry them to a championship.

Prediction

If Duke shoots the ball poorly, Butler can win. The Bulldogs do such an incredible job staying in front of dribblers, forcing teams to beat them over the top, that a poor shooting night from the Devils could be enough for the upset. Also, Butler rebounds positionally as well as any team in the country and their one true weakness—defending the low block—isn’t something that Duke is built to exploit.

For that reason, I expect this one to be a defensive, grind-it-out style of game. With that type of defensive pace, it’s really tough to find a rhythm and shoot a high percentage.

Also, Butler has played nothing but grinders all tournament, so they’ll have an advantage with that pace.

In the end, I think it comes down to the last one or two possessions, and I think that favors the team with more scoring options. Duke has three legitimate scorers, while Butler has one.

Duke by four in a great tournament finale.

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Kevin writes the leading college hoops blog March To March.

Follow him on Twitter: @MarchToMarch