Vicente Padilla: Opening Day Starter & Fantasy Usable?

The other day it was revealed that Vicente Padilla would be the Opening Day starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I know, in the scheme of things, it really doesn’t matter, but the Dodgers have not one, not two, but three starting pitchers who I would rank above Padilla.

The question some are asking is if we should use this as a sign that Padilla is a usable fantasy option?  He was strong after the Dodgers acquired him last season, posting the following line:

4 Wins
39.1 Innings
3.20 ERA
1.22 WHIP
38 Strikeouts (8.7 K/9)
12 Walks (2.7 B/99)
.307 BABIP

Still, are we just to ignore the 4.92 ERA and 1.50 WHIP that he posted with the Rangers prior to his release?

How about the fact that the last time he posted an ERA below 4.50 in a full season was back in 2003?

These are facts and one 39-inning stint shouldn’t fool anyone. It’s such a small sample size that numbers are easily skewed.  At his age, we really know exactly what Padilla is, and that is a sub par pitcher who is best used in case of emergency.

The strikeout rate is an aberration. His career K/9 is 6.2, and that includes time in Arizona and Philadelphia. It has nothing to do with him moving to the NL, he’s just not a strikeout per inning type of guy.

His control also just isn’t that good.  Look at his walk rates since 2005:

Less strikeouts, more walks and a career batting average against of .268…  Yep, sounds like an ace, doesn’t it?

I know, starting on Opening Day is meaningless, but don’t be misled by the honor.  Padilla is the fourth best pitcher on his own team, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley & Hiroki Kuroda.  Those are three starting pitchers worth owning in any format.

Is there any reason you would gamble on Padilla?  Do you see him as having value, or will he crash and burn?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here .

For some 2010 projections, click here .  Among those we’ve already covered include:

• Butler, Billy
• Cain, Matt
• Cueto, Johnny
• Gutierrez, Franklin
• Hamels, Cole
• Hamilton, Josh
• Kershaw, Clayton
• Martin, Russell
• Morneau, Justin
• Peralta, Jhonny
• Ramirez, Alexei
• Sizemore, Grady
• Vazquez, Javier
• Votto, Joey
• Youkilis, Kevin
• Young, Michael

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