2010 MLB Predictions: Is Dontrelle Willis Worth the Fantasy Baseball Gamble?

Eric StashinApr 1, 2010

With the Tigers' recent trade of Nate Robertson, it appears that Dontrelle Willis has earned the fifth spot in Detroit's rotation. The question for fantasy owners is, now that the Tigers are taking the gamble on him, should we do so as well?

He looked impressive early on this spring… well, maybe not. The results were there, but the process by which he got there certainly was not good. Over 19.1 spring innings, he’s walked 12 batters. It’s irrelevant what his ERA is; when you award so many free passes, it is only a matter of time before disaster strikes.

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If the walks weren’t enough, throw in two hits batters. I’m sure I could go on and on, but you get the idea. He has been extremely wild this spring, meaning that positive results are unlikely.

He has yet to allow a home run, a trend that is unlikely to continue. While he may not give up an extreme number of fly balls, his HR/FB ratio has never been impressive (outside of his monstrous 2005 season): 9.2 percent in 2006, 13.4 percent in 2007, 12.9 percent in 2008, 11.8 in 2009.

Forget about this spring for a second. He was solid (3.30 ERA) in his debut season of 2003. He was stellar (2.63) in 2005. He was average in 2006 (3.87). Is that really enough to base anything on? Truth be told, the hype surrounding Willis is on that 2005 season above all else.

As it is he has a career ERA of 4.02 and WHIP of 1.40. You take 2005 out of the equation and his ERA goes to 4.41 and WHIP to 1.47. Not a pitcher you’d be looking to take a flyer on, now is it?

Under the impression that he could be a source of cheap strikeouts? His career strikeout rate is just 6.60, right along the lines of the 6.13 he’s posted this spring. He’s certainly not going to contribute there either.

So, let’s get this straight: He has just one big season to hang his hat on. He has little upside in the strikeout department. He has erratic control, at best. His spring results are based more off of luck then skill.

His luck already has begun to run out, giving up five runs on seven hits and four walks, striking out three over 4.1 innings on Tuesday against the Orioles. The unfortunate truth is that his struggles could easily continue into the season. Don’t be fooled and take the gamble on the name alone. Outside of AL-only and the absolute deepest of formats, he’s not worth touching.

What are your thoughts? Is Willis someone you’d consider stashing away? If so, why?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5), now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here .

For more 2010 projections, click here . Among those we’ve already covered: